Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
When Mitt Romney was ahead in Iowa by 8 votes, it was called a historic victory. So even though the Iowa GOP is now calling Santorum's victory by 34 votes a "tie," I figure we can just call it a win. I hate that whole "You get a ribbon for just trying!" approach to life and think it's beneath the Iowa GOP. If one candidate gets to celebrate his 8-vote victory for the last few weeks, perhaps the real winner of the certified vote shouldn't be dismissed as having tied.
So Santorum won Iowa, Romney won New Hampshire and we might have our third winner on Saturday if Gingrich can upset Romney in South Carolina. Unlikely, but it could happen.
Not that the media ever should have taken an 8-vote victory as a sign that the nominating process was over for the season, but this seems as good a sign as any to keep this thing going, eh?
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Apr '11
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
Mistake or was the fix in for Mitt?
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
Unless we have reason to suspect shenanigans, I'm fine with thinking of it as an honest mistake. I did just see this:
So in all probability, Santorum won by even more.
Edited on Jan 19 at 5:54amSep '10
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
The GOP and Iowa loose. The party that claims it can do a better job running the country, can't run a primary. I would think the Iowa GOP would put out a written statement but judging from the article no one wins. Maybe the missing precincts are being held in the Cayman Islands.
Apr '11
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
I hope you're right, and fully agree that it's a big deal. The delay was awful luck for Santorum.
On your middle point, there is a new poll today that suggests a Newt win of 2.8% in South Carolina. Intriguingly, he loses amongst Republicans 30.2-34.6, a 4.4% gap, but makes it up with overwhelming gains from the SC primary being open to Democrats (46.8-2.7, a 44.1% gap) and Independents (32.7-26.2, a 6.7% gap). I thought it was quite likely that Newt could win SC, but I'll admit that reports he could do so McCain-style are kind of surprising to me. I guess Huntsman's loss was a major boon to him (which makes sense to me, anecdotally; all of the Huntsman supporters I know in person had a second choice of Newt).
The other poll today showed Mitt in a narrow lead, but did not show party ID. Depressingly, while its question on Bain suggested the issue was a wash, its question on Mormonism returned a 13% response of less likely to vote for him, with more strongly less likely than somewhat. Ugh.
Edited on Jan 19 at 6:12amRe: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
Well, to be fair, all elections have some sort of margin of error. It's just that they usually aren't so close to begin with.
Jun '10
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
This is pretty shocking. They didn't even have bad weather to blame. As depressing as this entire process has been for me over the past few months, what now can be named "The Iowa Debacle" just adds more manure to the pasture. All of the speeches and time and money spent by the candidates, all of the money wasted by news organizations, all of the energy spent analyzing by pundits and bloggers, all of it for naught. What a joke these Iowa caucuses...what a joke our elections have become. What a sad joke our country is becoming. Sorry folks, I don't like being such a downer, but I have said this before and it just gets more magnified weekly. With all the people in this great country how could we possibly end up with an Obama, Romney, Gingrich or Santorum as our only choices for President?
Edited on Jan 19 at 6:14amAug '10
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
It will be a hollow victory for Santorum if he doesn't place in the top 3 in SC. He simply does not have the resources to play in Florida without a significant boost to his campaign.
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
We should not underestimate the South Carolinians. They are a rebellious bunch. I can imagine them voting for Newt just to stick a finger in our eyes.
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
I'm notoriously bad at predictions but I told my husband last week I wouldn't be surprised to see Newt win or make a very strong showing.
Aug '11
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
Although it's possible they might actually want him to be the candidate.
Learning above that he is polling better with Democrats and Independents in a state with an Open Primary could mean (as James seems to suggest) that we have Obama voters trying to mess things up. Or it could mean that the alleged strength of Mitt (that he appeals to the supposedly necessary middle) is a fabrication and that Newt is more favored by the independents.
"May you live in interesting times," is a curse, right? I know everyone hates the way this process is drawn out. For my part, I love it! The more it's drawn out, the more likely my primary vote in April will actually mean something! (Also, I just enjoy the heck out of election-year politics.)
Dec '10
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
DrewInWisconsin
Learning above that he is polling better with Democrats and Independents in a state with an Open Primary could mean (as James seems to suggest) that we have Obama voters trying to mess things up. Or it could mean that the alleged strength of Mitt (that he appeals to the supposedly necessary middle) is a fabrication and that Newt is more favored by the independents.
Could this indicate that even the mushy middle is ready for some solids instead of the pablum we normally try to serve them?
May '10
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
Rebellious? Us? Since when? Oh, yeah....
Aug '11
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
The King Prawn
DrewInWisconsin
Learning above that he is polling better with Democrats and Independents in a state with an Open Primary could mean (as James seems to suggest) that we have Obama voters trying to mess things up. Or it could mean that the alleged strength of Mitt (that he appeals to the supposedly necessary middle) is a fabrication and that Newt is more favored by the independents.
Could this indicate that even the mushy middle is ready for some solids instead of the pablum we normally try to serve them? · Jan 19 at 7:14am
I've always thought the notion that we needed a candidate who was moderate in order to bring in the middle was largely a myth.
May '11
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
Assume: Newt wins S. Carolina
Postulate: Florida becomes VERY important...pick the winner important. (Maybe the reason the FL primary was moved to January?)
Jun '11
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
DrewInWisconsin
Although it's possible they might actually want him to be the candidate.
Learning above that he is polling better with Democrats and Independents in a state with an Open Primary could mean (as James seems to suggest) that we have Obama voters trying to mess things up. Or it could mean that the alleged strength of Mitt (that he appeals to the supposedly necessary middle) is a fabrication and that Newt is more favored by the independents.
· Jan 19 at 7:11am
I doubt many Democrats will actually vote here Saturday, Drew. Of course, lots of us are "Independents" in SC because most of the R's are too liberal. We WILL vote.
Santorum could write his own ticket today with Newt. But he won't and instead will be all out of leverage at 7:01 PM Saturday.
Oct '11
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
Rick Santorum on the Hugh Hewitt show last week
Why is it okay for Santorum to call an 8-vote loss a tie when it isn't okay for Romney to call a 34-vote loss a tie?
Apr '11
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
DrewInWisconsin
Although it's possible they might actually want him to be the candidate.
Learning above that he is polling better with Democrats and Independents in a state with an Open Primary could mean (as James seems to suggest) that we have Obama voters trying to mess things up. Or it could mean that the alleged strength of Mitt (that he appeals to the supposedly necessary middle) is a fabrication and that Newt is more favored by the independents.
I think it very likely that the waves of attacks on capitalism play well with independents and Democrats for non-sabotage reasons. Plus the sabotage/ operation chaos reasons probably play some part. Plus, the race speech was good and likely to appeal to southerners across the spectrum, being a cultural rather than political point.
Dec '10
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
James Of England
Plus, the race speech was good and likely to appeal to southerners across the spectrum, being a cultural rather than political point. · Jan 19 at 8:17am
Dogwhistling the white sheets was he?
Aug '11
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
DOUBLE POST! What?
Edited on Jan 19 at 8:50amAug '11
Re: Iowa's Winner: Rick Santorum
Terry
I doubt many Democrats will actually vote here Saturday, Drew. Of course, lots of us are "Independents" in SC because most of the R's are too liberal. We WILL vote.
South Carolina is an open primary state, though, right? Because so is Wisconsin, and though only once have I ever voted for a Democrat in a presidential election (to my shame), I have voted in Democrat primary contests. After all, I do want to influence who my guy runs against, particularly if I want to choose the "lesser evil" should my guy fail to get elected.
We don't have to declare a party affiliation here. We're all, technically, "independent."
Edited on Jan 19 at 8:50am