Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
The momentum is all with Rick Santorum. According to Public Policy Polling's latest, he's shot up 8 points in the last week in Iowa while Paul and Romney's support has dropped. PPP's top line is Paul 20, Romney 19, Santorum 18, Gingrich 14, Perry 10, Bachmann 8. Santorum leads in Iowa both with Tea Partiers and evangelicals, and has the highest favorability rating to boot.
The New York Times reports that their forecast shows Santorum doing well also. They predict Romney 21.0, Paul 20.6, Santorum 19.3, Gingrich 14.3.
Stephen F. Hayes notes that one under-reported finding from the Des Moines Register poll is that 76% of Santorum supporters say they're "definitely" going to caucus. Only 58% for Romney, 56% for Paul.
About a month ago, I would have predicted a Paul victory. Now I'm beginning to think that Santorum will pull off the upset. What do you think? And how would that result change the rest of the race? And how upset must Romney be? Even if he does eke out a victory here, I can't imagine this is the way he'd like things to finish.
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Comments:
Apr '11
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
The King Prawn
James Of England
The King Prawn:
Again, I'm kinda disappointed in attacks on raising the debt ceiling. It's not like Perry wouldn't need to do it (or like any candidate wouldn't). The rest seems well done; the low budget doesn't seem to have harmed them any (but is interesting; I don't know whether he's shifting to later races already, or is simply running out). · Jan 2 at 4:27pm
I think the fundamental question raised by the debt ceiling attacks is how much debt reasonable? Santorum averaged raising it every year and a half. When is enough enough? In Santorums 12 years in the Senate he couldn't muster the leadership required to get spending under control? Why would he be any different now? Admittedly, most people won't think that deeply into it.
Everyone in congress raised it at the same time, by the same amount, or made a symbolic opposition. The debt ceiling has no substantive value, but is a purely political gimmick. Laying down too many markers against raising it will hurt when he wants to raise it.
Dec '10
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
James Of England
Everyone in congress raised it at the same time, by the same amount, or made a symbolic opposition. The debt ceiling has no substantive value, but is a purely political gimmick. Laying down too many markers against raising it will hurt when he wants to raise it. · Jan 2 at 5:02pm
Well, the current administration and congress have set up the next to either radically cut government (we can hope) or raise the debt ceiling yet again. At some point either someone must declare ENOUGH! or we will face collapse. I think we are beyond the point where the situation can be finessed to a solution. I only see the two options available, so my evaluation of the candidates is strongly influenced by that belief. Only Paul and Perry come across as radical enough fiscally, and only Perry of the two comes across as sane enough in other areas. Santorum has a history of going along with the status quo. It's not a perfect solution, but we have very imperfect candidates.
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
Yes, Santorum lost big, but in running for that third term, a display of toughness and courage. Toward the end of his single term in office as governor of Massachusetts, by contrast, Romney, recognizing that his approval rating had sunk to the thirties, chose not to risk a defeat by running for re-election.
If we hold Santorum's defeat against him, how are we to weigh Romney's decision?
I'm uncertain. Do we give Santorum points for determination? Or Romney points for shrewdness?
May '10
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
This really is interesting, Peter. You should check my subsequent post on the prior page if you passed it. I'm quite amused that three people have responded to that same comment with a variation of "Yes, but Mitt...." The thing is ... I'm not voting for Romney, either. Yes, Mitt's calculation to hang it up after one term doesn't show much moxie, but I'm also not swayed by the argument you make about Santorum. The stakes are too high next year to take a flier on a good man who remained steadfast while having the stuffing knocked out of him. It's not fair, but what is? (Now I will retire to my lair where I will continue waiting for Superman.)
Sep '10
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
Santorum has always struck me as something of a sanctimonious zealot. His futile effort to make abortion an issue in the 2012 campaign suggests that he's incapable of focusing on the fight to save free markets from imminent doom. He plays right into the secular media's stereotype of Republicans as the Crusader Party.
As someone who supports his positions, I agree with you that he seems to lack the long view, and comes across as too zealous.
May '10
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
Pseudodionysius: Santorum has always struck me as something of a sanctimonious zealot. His futile effort to make abortion an issue in the 2012 campaign suggests that he's incapable of focusing on the fight to save free markets from imminent doom. He plays right into the secular media's stereotype of Republicans as the Crusader Party.
As someone who supports his positions, I agree with you that he seems to lack the long view, and comes across as too zealous. · Jan 3 at 5:31am
I agree too. I am hoping he will learn (quickly) to moderate his tone.
It may happen. It's possible that the plaintive, strident quality came largely from frustration with not being able to get his message heard, and that once he's a real contender, a new confidence will emerge that will make him more modest and more winning in his approach.
May '10
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
This paragraph in a Jeffrey Lord article in Am Spec today gets it right, IMO.
Dec '10
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
katievs
1) He's a "full spectrum conservative", in the going phrase. Limited government, moral values, strong defense.
...
5) He's got no personal baggage. Impossible to imagine "bimbo eruptions" in his case. · Jan 2 at 8:40am
First, Rick Santorum is not a full-spectrum conservative. He is Barack Obama with a different-- usually, but not always better-- set of animating values.
Second, he has baggage, albeit not bimbo eruptions. I will not go any farther than that right now.
Besides, you think Uncle Rick is electable? His own nephew agrees with me, and does not like and respect his uncle enough to keep it to himself. Does this reflect well on the nephew? No, it does not. But it certainly has to make you think about Rick.
Apr '11
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
KarlUB
katievs
1) He's a "full spectrum conservative", in the going phrase. Limited government, moral values, strong defense.
...
5) He's got no personal baggage. Impossible to imagine "bimbo eruptions" in his case. · Jan 2 at 8:40am
First, Rick Santorum is not a full-spectrum conservative. He is Barack Obama with a different-- usually, but not always better-- set of animating values.
Second, he has baggage, albeit not bimbo eruptions. I will not go any farther than that right now.
Besides, you think Uncle Rick is electable? His own nephew agrees with me, and does not like and respect his uncle enough to keep it to himself. Does this reflect well on the nephew? No, it does not. But it certainly has to make you think about Rick. · Jan 3 at 12:25pm
The nephew line is a cheap shot, and Rick Santorum is nothing like Obama.