Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
The momentum is all with Rick Santorum. According to Public Policy Polling's latest, he's shot up 8 points in the last week in Iowa while Paul and Romney's support has dropped. PPP's top line is Paul 20, Romney 19, Santorum 18, Gingrich 14, Perry 10, Bachmann 8. Santorum leads in Iowa both with Tea Partiers and evangelicals, and has the highest favorability rating to boot.
The New York Times reports that their forecast shows Santorum doing well also. They predict Romney 21.0, Paul 20.6, Santorum 19.3, Gingrich 14.3.
Stephen F. Hayes notes that one under-reported finding from the Des Moines Register poll is that 76% of Santorum supporters say they're "definitely" going to caucus. Only 58% for Romney, 56% for Paul.
About a month ago, I would have predicted a Paul victory. Now I'm beginning to think that Santorum will pull off the upset. What do you think? And how would that result change the rest of the race? And how upset must Romney be? Even if he does eke out a victory here, I can't imagine this is the way he'd like things to finish.
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Comments:
May '10
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
Think of the good that could happen in Ohio and Pennsylvania if we were to have a President who understands, respects, and wants to revive the American manufacturing tradition. And one who will unshackle explorers and developers of natural gas and shale oil resources.
May '10
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
It needs to be Romney...as Garp said, "He's been pre-disastered."
<wink>
Dec '11
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
I hope Santorum emerges from Iowa and gets national notice so that, as the primary season matures, folks can at least have an extended look at Romney and -one- conservative (as opposed to the flavor of the month). I think Santorum can clearly voice the conservative point of view and will be a good point of contrast for voters vice Romney.
Oct '10
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
His timing is perfect, because there is no time for caucus goers to examine his record.
From Jerry Bowyer of Forbes:
For me, his insistence on a separate tax regime for manufacturing is the deal breaker. It is such a bad idea I don't know where to begin.
Jul '10
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
Todd: His timing is perfect, because there is no time for caucus goers to examine his record.
From Jerry Bowyer of Forbes:
For me, his insistence on a separate tax regime for manufacturing is the deal breaker. It is such a bad idea I don't know where to begin. · Jan 2 at 9:41am
I agree. Santorum got crushed in Pennsylvania. For a reason.
May '10
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
Michael Tee
I agree. Santorum got crushed in Pennsylvania. For a reason. · Jan 2 at 10:53am
True. But that was then, this is now. He'd be running against Obama, not Bob Casey. And people can learn from their mistakes. Santorum has said is worst political mistake was backing Specter against Toomey.
I'd love to know whether you saw that interview with Gregory linked above, and whether it changes your mind at all.
Remember, we're not comparing him with the candidate of our dreams, but with the actual alternatives on the table. Which of them has a better balance of strengths and deficits in your opinion?
Aug '11
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
You really have to take the national tide of public sentiment into account when looking at election wins and losses. Romney lost in 1994 by 17 points in a Republican year. Compare this to Santorum's 18 point loss in 2006 when there was strongly Democratic/anti-incumbent tide. Romney's only win was in 2002 when Republicans did very well, and even then he only beat his opponent by 5 points. I'm not necessarily backing either Romney or Santorum, but I think it is important to look at wins and losses in context.
Jul '11
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
Fear the sweater vest!
May '10
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
This is interesting. My comment doubted that Rick Santorum is a viable candidate. The replies to that comment respond with references to Mitt Romney's shortcomings. For the record, I'm not a Romney supporter and have decided I will not vote for him in the South Carolina primary.
So - why the immediate rush to compare Santorum to Romney when I'm not a Romney supporter? This is not a challenge - I'm really interested in the answer, because I think the reasons may point to Romney eventually squeezing through to the nomination.
Sep '10
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
Keith Preston: It needs to be Romney...as Garp said, "He's been pre-disastered."
<wink> · Jan 2 at 9:10am
"I always prefer a disaster to a catastrophe" - Thomas Sowell on Uncommon Knowledge comparing John McCain and Barack Obama.
Jan '11
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
Santorum seems like an natural candidate for the Iowa GOP, so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him win there and. From what I gather of how hard and consistently he's worked for it, he's probably earned it.
That said, I simply cannot see a viable path for Santorum to the White House. As others have pointed out, he is socially far to the right of most Americans; whether his positions on gay marriage and abortion are correct or not -- for my money, they are not -- they will turn off too many independents and democrats for conservatives to make up.
More importantly, Santorum has spent his career as a legislator and advocate and never once as an executive. We have no idea where Santorum will compromise (he will have to), or where he will sell-out (they all do) because we've never seen him have to make those kind of choices. If he were an ex-governor or its equivalent, we'd have a much better idea. As it is, it's real easy to be pure when you've never been asked to compromise your principles.
Edited on January 2, 2012 at 10:17pmRe: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
Yes, indeed. Had he shown real gumption, he would not have had to drop out.
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
I agree. I am inclined to think Romney the better pick -- in part because he has had ample executive experience -- and I found Santorum in the debates at times insufferable. But Romney needs to be tested, and Santorum may now be well placed to give him a real run. Santorum himself may merit a closer look.
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
Matthew Gilley: This is interesting. My comment doubted that Rick Santorum is a viable candidate. The replies to that comment respond with references to Mitt Romney's shortcomings. For the record, I'm not a Romney supporter and have decided I will not vote for him in the South Carolina primary.
So - why the immediate rush to compare Santorum to Romney when I'm not a Romney supporter? This is not a challenge - I'm really interested in the answer, because I think the reasons may point to Romney eventually squeezing through to the nomination. · Jan 2 at 12:50pm
My guess is that many people have given up the other candidates for dead. It ain't over, however, till the fat lady sings.
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
Tom Meyer: . . .
More importantly, Santorum has spent his career as a legislator and advocate and never once as an executive. We have no idea where Santorum will compromise (he will have to), or where he will sell-out (they all do) because we've never seen him have to make those kind of choices. If he were an ex-governor or its equivalent, we'd have a much better idea. As it is, it's real easy to be pure when you've never been asked to compromise your principles. · Jan 2 at 1:13pm
Edited on Jan 02 at 01:17 pm
There is much sense in this -- and I am confident that, if he lacks executive temperament, Santorum will soon fall on his face. If he wins in Iowa, he will have to pull together a proper campaign. He will also get a real pounding, and we will see what he is made of.
Edited on January 2, 2012 at 10:38pmApr '11
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
With Perry, I could see the arguments for and against his producing more conservative outcomes than Romney. With Newt and Paul, I acknowledge that there are smart people who believe that they'd be so. Heck, this is true of Huntsman, too. With Bachmann and Santorum, my argument has always been electoral or policy specific. I am very happy to see a true full spectrum conservative having a chance to take the ABR role.
I've never found myself terribly excited by Santorum, but he played a serious and unmixed role in the Republican revolution, seems to have intelligent, conservative views, and has avoided wackiness. A Santorum victory in Iowa would be an important gift to the GOP.
One note, though; the quoted survey is from a source that endorsed Romney, and a Santorum victory would benefit Mitt.
Sep '11
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
Santorum has always struck me as something of a sanctimonious zealot. His futile effort to make abortion an issue in the 2012 campaign suggests that he's incapable of focusing on the fight to save free markets from imminent doom. He plays right into the secular media's stereotype of Republicans as the Crusader Party. Mitch Daniels was right: we need a social issues truce to win in 2012.
Iowa's unique, unearned status as a media focal point amplifies the political views of its caucus-goers, an unrepresentative sliver of the electorate. Zealotry, either of the religous or philosophical variety, is rewarded. Pastors and principled isolationists revel in the spotlight while small business and the suburban middle-class await a credible, mainstream champion with proven executive experience.
Voters -- actual voters -- in Florida, Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and Tennessee will tell us which candidate can lead us to victory against Obama. Michael Barone put it best: "as Iowa goes, so goes Iowa."
Dec '10
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
Perry is on Santorum with a new ad. It's a little juvenile, but it's hard to miss the point. And this one. The battle for third place in Iowa is kind of funny actually.
Edited on January 2, 2012 at 11:54pmApr '11
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
The King Prawn: Perry is on Santorum with a new ad. It's a little juvenile, but it's hard to miss the point. And this one. The battle for third place in Iowa is kind of funny actually. · Jan 2 at 2:52pm
Edited on Jan 02 at 02:54 pm
Again, I'm kinda disappointed in attacks on raising the debt ceiling. It's not like Perry wouldn't need to do it (or like any candidate wouldn't). The rest seems well done; the low budget doesn't seem to have harmed them any (but is interesting; I don't know whether he's shifting to later races already, or is simply running out).
Edited on January 3, 2012 at 1:27amDec '10
Re: Iowa Prepares To Nominate Rick Santorum
James Of England
The King Prawn: Perry is on Santorum with a new ad. It's a little juvenile, but it's hard to miss the point. And this one. The battle for third place in Iowa is kind of funny actually. · Jan 2 at 2:52pm
Again, I'm kinda disappointed in attacks on raising the debt ceiling. It's not like Perry wouldn't need to do it (or like any candidate wouldn't). The rest seems well done; the low budget doesn't seem to have harmed them any (but is interesting; I don't know whether he's shifting to later races already, or is simply running out). · Jan 2 at 4:27pm
I think the fundamental question raised by the debt ceiling attacks is how much debt reasonable? Santorum averaged raising it every year and a half. When is enough enough? In Santorums 12 years in the Senate he couldn't muster the leadership required to get spending under control? Why would he be any different now? Admittedly, most people won't think that deeply into it.