The momentum is all with Rick Santorum. According to Public Policy Polling's latest, he's shot up 8 points in the last week in Iowa while Paul and Romney's support has dropped. PPP's top line is Paul 20, Romney 19, Santorum 18, Gingrich 14, Perry 10, Bachmann 8. Santorum leads in Iowa both with Tea Partiers and evangelicals, and has the highest favorability rating to boot.
The New York Times reports that their forecast shows Santorum doing well also. They predict Romney 21.0, Paul 20.6, Santorum 19.3, Gingrich 14.3.
Stephen F. Hayes notes that one under-reported finding from the Des Moines Register poll is that 76% of Santorum supporters say they're "definitely" going to caucus. Only 58% for Romney, 56% for Paul.
About a month ago, I would have predicted a Paul victory. Now I'm beginning to think that Santorum will pull off the upset. What do you think? And how would that result change the rest of the race? And how upset must Romney be? Even if he does eke out a victory here, I can't imagine this is the way he'd like things to finish.