Iowa Predictions
Frozen Chosen ·
Jan 3 at 7:37am
Alright, folks, time to gaze into your crystal ball. In which order do the candidates finish tonight and who, if anyone, drops out? I don't care about vote precentages, just order of finish.
Mollie has already suggested the possibility of a Santorum win so I'll give you my take:
- Romney
- Paul
- Santorum
- Perry
- Gingrich
- Bachmann
- Huntsman
Bachmann drops out on Wednesday, everyone else stays in until New Hampshire.
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Jul '11
Re: Iowa Predictions
Paul, Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Perry , Bachman, Huntsman. The Paul revolution goes to New Hampshire and takes fifth. Supporters blame the federal reserve.
Dec '11
Re: Iowa Predictions
Hopefully, this is the year when Republicans throw off the yoke of Iowa and New Hampshire, and make their own decisions as the primaries progress.
I live in a state with a population 8 times the size of Iowa and New Hampshire combined. It's time I had a voice in the selection of a candidate, rather than leave it to the preening denizens of two states who presume to arrogate that decision to themselves.
May '10
Re: Iowa Predictions
I already put in my picks for my Fantasy Politics league (it's like fantasy football but for people who read Ricochet and DON'T watch SportsCenter). I called Paul for Iowa, but I'm beginning to think it'll be Romney, Santorum, Paul and then a smattering with Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, Huntsman. And a few write-ins or something for Palin.
Dec '11
Re: Iowa Predictions
I was watching Sheppard Smith last night. Apparently no one has ever won the White House without winning their party's South Carolina primary, and no Republican has ever has ever won South Carolina without first winning Iowa or New Hampshire. Since Rommney is likely to win NH that makes tonight very interesting now eh?
My predictions however:
Romney (24), Santorum (22), Paul (21), Perry (13), Gingrich(12) Bachmann (6) Huntsman (2)
I agree with Forzen, Ms. Bachmann pulls out on Wed/Thur and throws support to Santorum. Huntsman does the same after NH, and Gingrich follows suit after a 3rd place finish in South Carolina.
Apr '11
Re: Iowa Predictions
Romney wins by a slight margin over Paul, with Santorum in a close third. Gingrich and Perry battle it out for fourth place. Bachmann is in sixth, Huntsman way down in seventh.
No matter what, Romney, Paul, and Huntsman stay in the race.
If Bachmann gets fifth or less, or less than 8%, she will drop out. Same for Santorum.
Perry and Gingrich will stay in unless they absolutely bomb the caucuses.
Oct '10
Re: Iowa Predictions
Prediction:
1) Bachmann drops out after Iowa Caucus
2) Huntsman drops out if he doesn't finish 1st or 2nd in NH.
3) Perry or Gingrich (choose one) will drop out after SC.
4) Santorum will drop out after Florida.
Sep '10
Re: Iowa Predictions
John Marzan: Prediction:
1) Bachmann drops out after Iowa Caucus
2) Huntsman drops out if he doesn't finish 1st or 2nd in NH.
3) Perry or Gingrich (choose one) will drop out after SC.
4) Santorum will drop out after Florida. · Jan 3 at 5:01am
5) ABC, CBS and NBC will begin examining the secret rituals of the Mormon Church.
Re: Iowa Predictions
Frozen Chosen:
Mollie has already predicted a Santorum win so I'll give you my take;
Two things -- I like to remind people that I'm a horrible prognosticator and my exact words were "I'm beginning to think that Santorum will pull off the upset."
Not quite a prediction.
I am actually looking forward to finding out what happens tonight.
Re: Iowa Predictions
OK, I really am a horrible prognosticator but I'd like to play anyway. Here's my long-shot prediction:
1) Paul
2) Santorum
3) Romney
4) Perry
5) Gingrich
6) Bachmann
7) Huntsman
I think that in this scenario, the big winners will, oddly, be Paul, Santorum and Perry. It will be bad for Romney, almost over for Gingrich, over for Bachmann, and Huntsman all depends on New Hampshire.
Bachmann will drop out after tonight.
See, I told you I was bad at prognostications.
Re: Iowa Predictions
Romney
Gingerich
Santorum
Paul
Perry
Bachmann
Huntsman
The horses are packed tightly enough that no one leaves the race before New Hampshire.
Re: Iowa Predictions
Anything could happen, and the polling data is next to worthless. It tells us what people prefer and not who feels strongly enough about the candidates to actually show up at the caucus meetings.
My sense is that support for Romney is tepid and that support for Paul and Santorum is intense. My guess is that Paul wins with Santorum a close second and Romney third. But this much I know: my guess is pretty close to being worthless. People in Iowa have minds of their own.
May '10
Re: Iowa Predictions
I think the most important thing to look for tonight is turnout. If turnout is much larger than in 2008, it suggests, and I've sensed and expect, that this election will be decided by a whole lota scared, disgusted Americans who are usually indifferent, or just manage to get out and vote in November. And that would be a great sign for Romney, whether he finishes first or third.
May '11
Re: Iowa Predictions
Paul, Romney, Gingrich, Santorum and also rans. Paul, Romney, Gingrich, Perry do not drop out until AFTER Florida. S. Carolina means a lot but Florida decides who will be nominated. (See McCain in '08). Gingrich makes biggest push in SC and FL. If he doesn't win those he's gone.
Jun '10
Re: Iowa Predictions
Romney by a nose. Paul and Santorum in a dead heat for second. Gingrich third and fading. The rest will be also rans with half of them dropping out by New Hampshire.
Jul '11
Re: Iowa Predictions
Liberal Jim, isn't that the truth.
Dec '11
Re: Iowa Predictions
liberal jim
5) ABC, CBS and NBC will begin examining the secret rituals of the Mormon Church. · Jan 3 at 7:21am
I suspect they already have several of these “in the can”, so to speak. In addition, I expect similar and possibly more nefarious “specials” on networks such as TLC, History Channel, A&E, the Discovery Channel etc. All of this is just waiting for the nomination to be sewn up.
In the next couple of months I expect we’ll start seeing “softening of the ground” with little jokes, quips and jibes on popular situation comedies and dramas.
In short I am predicting that the Democratic Media Complex will be using the next 10-11 months the launch a virtual seminar on How to Promulgate Religious Bigotry. They know who they want to be The One’s opponent. However, I believe they are going to over-play their hand, because I believe Americans are better, by far, than that.
Re: Iowa Predictions
Bluenoser
liberal jim
5) ABC, CBS and NBC will begin examining the secret rituals of the Mormon Church. · Jan 3 at 7:21am
I suspect they already have several of these “in the can”, so to speak. In addition, I expect similar and possibly more nefarious “specials” on networks such as TLC, History Channel, A&E, the Discovery Channel etc. All of this is just waiting for the nomination to be sewn up.
In the next couple of months I expect we’ll start seeing “softening of the ground” with little jokes, quips and jibes on popular situation comedies and dramas.
In short I am predicting that the Democratic Media Complex will be using the next 10-11 months the launch a virtual seminar on How to Promulgate Religious Bigotry. They know who they want to be The One’s opponent. However, I believe they are going to over-play their hand, because I believe Americans are better, by far, than that. · Jan 3 at 8:30am
The New York Times, and others, have already begun.
Dec '10
Re: Iowa Predictions
There's no way Paul doesn't at least show, Tommy.
As much as it pains me to say it, the folks with Romney -> Paul -> Santorum -> Gingrich -> Perry -> Bachmann -> Huntsman have it right.
A shame for Huntsman, and also a shame that the media hit jobs on Paul and Gingrich succeeded so well. But hey, you want to be president? Gotta deal with a media hit job. And believe me, when it comes with Romney, it will be a doozy.
Jul '10
Re: Iowa Predictions
1) Paul
2) Santorum
3) Romney
4) Perry
5) Gingrich
6) Huntsman
7) Bachmann
Bachmann's fall from grace in the caucus where she was predicting a win will be the final nail in the coffin, but she will limp a little longer.
Romney discovers that his declared supporters like flip-flops. Who would have thunk it. Romney will say that he didn't expect to win and, this being America rather than Northeast Corridor/West Coast axis of evil, he will have been "inevitably" right.
Gingrich will demand a judicial review of the caucus, completely forgetting last week's kerfuffle of his own making, and declare that now he will pursue a write-in campaign in Iowa. (It worked so well in Virginia. Does the man even know a lawyer with bar privileges in Virginia?)
Paul will declare himself God-Emperor of Iowa and be carried thrice around the state by frenzied supporters at a dead run.
Santorum will deeply regret not bothering to submit signatures in Virginia.
Perry, who has looked sharper of late (damnation by faint praise) and who might yet prove a worthy contender will have to find his momentum elsewhere.
Huntsman will comfort himself with Chinese philosophy but no more jobs from Obama.
(I just looked, Mollie, and I swear I was not looking at your order when I picked mine!)
Edited on Jan 3 at 9:27amApr '11
Re: Iowa Predictions
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.: OK, I really am a horrible prognosticator but I'd like to play anyway. Here's my long-shot prediction:
1) Paul
2) Santorum
3) Romney
4) Perry
5) Gingrich
6) Bachmann
7) Huntsman
I think that in this scenario, the big winners will, oddly, be Paul, Santorum and Perry. It will be bad for Romney, almost over for Gingrich, over for Bachmann, and Huntsman all depends on New Hampshire.
Bachmann will drop out after tonight.
See, I told you I was bad at prognostications. · Jan 3 at 7:42am
I'm hoping that Santorum beats Paul, and fear that the Newt/ Perry order is reversed, but otherwise this is essentially my over/under. I'd prefer it if Romney and Bachmann did better, and will be saddened if Newt comes third or better, but these seem less likely to me than they do to Frozen. I'll be up tonight waiting for the nightmare results to come in or not; If Newt comes third, expect this to last until April. Likewise if Romney doesn't come in third.