Iowa: Paul 28, Gingrich 25, Romney 18, Perry 11
The race remains "remarkably fluid," according to a new Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG poll of likely Republican caucus-goers, but Rep. Ron Paul's support is of a different type:
While Paul’s lead is easily within the margin of error, James McCormick, professor and chair of political science at Iowa State and coordinator of the poll, says the polling found that 51 percent of those naming the libertarian-leaning Texan as their first choice are “definitely” backing him.
The percentage for the next two candidates is much weaker, at 16.1 percent for Romney and 15.2 for Gingrich, McCormick said.“Moreover, the percentage of respondents ‘leaning to’ or ‘still undecided’ in their support for these latter two candidates remains high, at 58 percent for Gingrich and 38 percent for Romney,” he said. “In other words, I'm going to make the case that these numbers are still very soft for those two candidates.”
His colleague, Dave Peterson, interim director of the Harkin Institute of Public Policy at Iowa State and associate professor of political science who assisted with the poll, says that suggests Paul “probably under-polls.”
“His supporters are younger and more likely to reply on a cell phone, so he's probably going to perform better than his polling suggests,” Peterson says. “His supporters also are dedicated and will likely turn out on caucus night and not change their minds.”
Interesting. Also, the Gingrich family wishes you a Merry Christmas. Is it me, or is the subtext to this video "Help! I'm being forced to run for president by my wife!"
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Re: Iowa: Paul 28, Gingrich 25, Romney 18, Perry 11
See here for a claim that the poll doesn't use the best modeling.
Sep '10
Re: Iowa: Paul 28, Gingrich 25, Romney 18, Perry 11
Is it me, or is the subtext to this video "Help! I'm being forced to run for president by my wife!"
To me the subtext is: "Help! I"m being forced to make this Christmas video with my wife as the lead speaker!"
Dec '10
Re: Iowa: Paul 28, Gingrich 25, Romney 18, Perry 11
He has to do something to change the nation's perception of her.
Dec '11
Re: Iowa: Paul 28, Gingrich 25, Romney 18, Perry 11
What no overblown media controversy over a bookshelf? I feel let down; slightly cheated.
Edited on Dec 21, 2011 at 7:42amDec '10
Re: Iowa: Paul 28, Gingrich 25, Romney 18, Perry 11
That link, Molly, has already walked back on its initial critique.
I imagine these polls will be back to being at least a little predictive after the recent onslaught of criticism has a chance to soften Rep. Paul's numbers a bit.
But what if Rich Lowry's hysterical screen doesn't have an effect....?
Jan '11
Re: Iowa: Paul 28, Gingrich 25, Romney 18, Perry 11
Well, tell us why - And how?
Nov '11
Re: Iowa: Paul 28, Gingrich 25, Romney 18, Perry 11
Compared to polling, Ron Paul underperformed in Iowa and NH in 2008. But that was a long time ago and he has a better organization now.
May '10
Re: Iowa: Paul 28, Gingrich 25, Romney 18, Perry 11
What's the next best outcome to the top three contenders trading the lead in these races in a rotating pattern? Having them fight their way to a three-way tie, of course! Looks like The Plan may just work out after all.
Dec '10
Re: Iowa: Paul 28, Gingrich 25, Romney 18, Perry 11
Anon
Well, tell us why - And how? · Dec 21 at 11:34am
I have no answers.
Aug '10
Re: Iowa: Paul 28, Gingrich 25, Romney 18, Perry 11
I'm more inclined to believe this poll from Rasmussen which has Romney at 25%, Paul at 20% and Gingrich at 17% in Iowa.
But then again, I'm not exactly an objective observer...
May '10
Re: Iowa: Paul 28, Gingrich 25, Romney 18, Perry 11
Rasmussen has it Romney 25, Paul 20, Gingrich 17, fwiw.
In that ad Newt is as frumpy and lovable as always.
Prediction: Within the decade, the name "Callista" will be assigned to a Cat 5 hurricane.
Apr '11
Re: Iowa: Paul 28, Gingrich 25, Romney 18, Perry 11
Frozen Chosen: I'm more inclined to believe this poll from Rasmussen which has Romney at 25%, Paul at 20% and Gingrich at 17% in Iowa.
But then again, I'm not exactly an objective observer... · Dec 21 at 2:58pm
I'm not neutral, either, but I think that the Rasmussen poll is a little over-optimistic. He's consistently been kinder to Romney in Iowa than other polls. There are some interesting things in the poll, but we should be limited in our excitement over his polls, just as we shouldn't be too bothered by the occasional outlier the other way (not that I'd be terribly unhappy if the KCRG poll was the consensus).