In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
When ObamaCare was voted on last year, North Dakota was represented in the Senate by two Democrats, Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad. Both voted aye.
Weeks afterward, Byron Dorgan, who was up for re-election in November, looked over the political situation back home—his likely opponent at the time was John Hoeven, the Republican governor—and announced that he was withdrawing from the race. John Hoeven—make that Sen. John Hoeven—now holds Byron Dorgan’s seat.
Kent Conrad was up for re-election in 2012. Was? Yes, was. The past tense became necessary the day before yesterday, when Sen. Conrad, like Sen. Dorgan before him, announced that he intended to retire.
Why should this matter to anyone outside, say, Fargo or Bismarck? Because of the game Dorgan and Conrad both played. Simply put, they sounded like conservatives back home, then voted with the Democratic leadership in Washington. It worked. It worked very, very well. In 2006, for example, Sen. Conrad was re-elected with 69 percent of the vote.
Now, though, the jig appears to be up. Voting with the Democratic leadership was one thing when the Party remained centrist, more or less, after the manner of Bill Clinton. But now? The Obama-Pelosi-Reid lurch to the left has proven, to folks in North Dakota, flatly unacceptable.
The North Dakota GOP will find itself hard-pressed to find another candidate as popular as John Hoeven. But there are a lot of solid, clear-eyed, well-spoken Republicans in the state from whom to choose. Two years is a long, long time, I'll admit. But I’d be surprised if Conrad’s Democratic seat doesn’t flip to the Republicans in 2012.
Which leads me to a question for the Ricochetoise.
Does the political change in North Dakota represent a deeper change throughout the heartland? As North Dakota goes, so goes…what?
- Comment (25)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (2)
- Pages:
- 1
- 2
- Pages:
- 1
- 2
Comments :
Jul '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
Pity that Kristi Noem is from South Dakota.
Oct '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
My fervent prayer is COLORADO. Unfortunately, the state GOP is a hopeless bollix of ladder climbers and RINOs. And even a RINO would appear to have a greater level of intelligence then the state bosses.
May '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
As North Dakota goes, so goes....1/50th of the Senate, which is no less than NY or CA can manage.
Jan '11
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
I refer to the 40-40-20 rule. 40% will always vote Democrat, 40% will always vote Republican, and the game is about the remaining 20%. But, unlike most conventional wisdom, I don't think that the way to win is by persuading those 20%, especially by neutering and diluting your core message.
Those 20% don't respond to persuasion anyway. Don't bother putting on sheep's clothing, because they don't respond to that anyway. When the 20% votes, they vote strictly according to how well things are going. You message or packaging or pleasant face doesn't mean a darned thing. What matters is how well the party in power is governing. If they do well, or are tolerantly mediocre, the 20% won't make a change. If the powerful govern poorly, the 20% ejects them.
If the two ND senators' fingers in the wind are pointing in the wrong direction, it's because the governing was poor, and they know it.
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
As North Dakota goes, so will Michigan. The Republicans this year took the governorship and both state houses. Stay tuned for more mayhem.
Nov '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
Does anybody live in ND?
Sep '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
With a 2008 surplus of $1.0 billion on 667,000 people, I think the better question is why isn't everyone living there?
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
Nice point. And God bless the United States Senate.
Sep '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
Paul A. Rahe: As North Dakota goes, so will Michigan. The Republicans this year took the governorship and both state houses. Stay tuned for more mayhem. · Jan 20 at 4:24pm
Wisconsin is on the same course.
Old man Kohl, if he ever wakes up from his nap, might just decide not to run again. Although, I doubt we've heard the last of Feingold.
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
Pseudodionysius
With a 2008 surplus of $1.0 billion on 667,000 people, I think the better question is why isn't everyone living there? · Jan 20 at 4:34pm
Pseudodi, I hereby nominate you for the Riposte of the Day Award.
Jul '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
Pseudodionysius
With a 2008 surplus of $1.0 billion on 667,000 people, I think the better question is why isn't everyone living there? · Jan 20 at 4:34pm
Have you ever been in North Dakota in mid-winter? All the charm of Siberia, without the high-cheek-boned babes.
Nov '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
Peter Robinson
Pseudodionysius
With a 2008 surplus of $1.0 billion on 667,000 people, I think the better question is why isn't everyone living there? · Jan 20 at 4:34pm
Pseudodi, I hereby nominate you for the Riposte of the Day Award. · Jan 20 at 4:43pm
Too darn cold! I grew in in the Great White North and am happy to be a California boy now regardless of the bad government.
Jul '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
The lesson here is that modern technology has made it more and more difficult to do one thing in Washington and say another back home. The sharpening of ideological party difference is itself a reflection of this, and in turn it makes it more difficult to "hide".
I think this works in favor of Republicans. Because the overall media/news culture leans left, the old dynamic favored Democrats. The new dynamic favors redenning the red states to match the blueing of the blue states. In other words, it gets us back to a fair fight.
Jun '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
I'm from Oregon. We're a one-party state. There will be no talk of that Republican stuff around here. Us folks are in exile. Besides, our next Senate election isn't until 2014 and I don't see anything changing any time soon. If we do vote in a Republican, well... I'll eat my tie! Good luck everyone else, I'm praying for you.
Sep '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
This is occurring throughout the Midwest. In the triangle between North Dakota, Kansas, and Pennsylvania, 10 governorships and 10 Senate seats were up in 2010. The results:
The governorships went from 7-3 Democratic to 8-2 Republican (KS, IA, WI, OH, MI, and PA flipped to the Republicans from the Democrats; MN went the other way).
The Senate seats went from a 5-5 split to a Republican sweep, with Republicans picking up IL, IN, WI, ND, and PA.
The Republicans gained 25 House seats in this region (5 each in OH and PA; 4 in IL; 2 each in IN, MI, and WI; 1 each in MN, MO, ND, SD, and KS).
In 2012, the Democrats have to defend Senate seats not only in North Dakota, but also Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Missouri.
Sep '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
Kenneth
Pseudodionysius
With a 2008 surplus of $1.0 billion on 667,000 people, I think the better question is why isn't everyone living there? · Jan 20 at 4:34pm
Have you ever been in North Dakota in mid-winter? All the charm of Siberia, without the high-cheek-boned babes. · Jan 20 at 5:03pm
Many times. And North Dakota has a very high Scandinavian population, so you have to be stuck indoors all winter with women who look like Andrea Ryan. Its a tough job, but someone has to do it. In North Dakota, the high cheekbones weren't surgically implanted.
Sep '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
I also note in passing that Shale oil or gas states (Penn and ND in this case) have a very real loathing and fear of cap and trade, so that is fueling a lot of the disdain for Democrats. North Dakota in particular sees this as finally their chance to break out of the pack and Cap 'n Trade wants to take that away from them and they're not happy about it.
May '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
As a descendant of the ND political class, I'm glad to see it taking a right turn. Unfortunately, I come from the communist ND political class...
May '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
Jeff Ditzler: This is occurring throughout the Midwest. In the triangle between North Dakota, Kansas, and Pennsylvania, 10 governorships and 10 Senate seats were up in 2010. The results:
The governorships went from 7-3 Democratic to 8-2 Republican (KS, IA, WI, OH, MI, and PA flipped to the Republicans from the Democrats; MN went the other way).
The Senate seats went from a 5-5 split to a Republican sweep, with Republicans picking up IL, IN, WI, ND, and PA.
The Republicans gained 25 House seats in this region (5 each in OH and PA; 4 in IL; 2 each in IN, MI, and WI; 1 each in MN, MO, ND, SD, and KS).
In 2012, the Democrats have to defend Senate seats not only in North Dakota, but also Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Missouri. · Jan 20 at 6:46pm
and when people in those states are seeing the Obamaflation hit that year...they will flip too...
May '10
Re: In North Dakota, the Jig Is Up
Mark Belling Fan
Wisconsin is on the same course.
Old man Kohl, if he ever wakes up from his nap, might just decide not to run again. Although, I doubt we've heard the last of Feingold. · Jan 20 at 4:40pm
You stole my thunder. I do pray that the loss of RF has sent shivers up the spine of HK and he will get out and if not maybe Mark Neumann will run against him.