Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
This from esteemed commentator, Michael Barone:
From 1980 to 2008, more than 5 million Mexicans legally entered the United States. And Mexicans account for about 60 percent of the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. today.
Immigration policymakers have assumed that the flow of Mexican immigrants would continue indefinitely at this high level. But now evidence is accumulating that this vast surge of migration is ending.
The Pew Hispanic Center, analyzing Census statistics, has estimated that illegal Mexican entrants have been reduced from 525,000 annually in the 2000-04 years to 100,000 in 2010.
"The flow has already stopped," Douglas Massey of the Mexican Migration Project at Princeton recently told The New York Times. "The net traffic has gone to zero and is probably a little bit negative."
The Pew Hispanic Center estimates the 2010 illegal population at 11.2 million, down from the 2007 peak of 12.0 million and just about the same level as in 2005. It's probably lower today.
Even more important, things have changed in Mexico. Its birth rate has fallen from 7 children per woman in 1971 to 3.2 in 1990 and 2 in 2010, barely enough to prevent population loss.
Mexico has finally become a majority middle-class country, former Foreign Minister Jorge Castaneda argues in his recent book "Manana Forever?" Mexico has more cars and television sets than households now, most Mexicans have credit cards, and there are almost as many cell phones as people.
The historic experience has been that countries cease generating large numbers of immigrants when they reach a certain economic level, as Germany did in the 1880s. Mass migration from Puerto Rico, whose residents are U.S. citizens, ended in the early 1960s, when income levels reached one-third of those on the mainland.
I bring this up for two reasons:
First, this is a complete surprise to me. Everything else I have read led to believe that illegal aliens were overrunning the US from Mexico. Apparently those writers who are predicting that America will be run over by Mexicans are still stuck in 2007.
Second, and more importantly, this is a good cautionary tale for apocalyptic demographers like Mark Steyn, who take exponential trends (all demographic trends are exponential), extrapolate them into the future several decades and predict the end of the world as we know it.
As economist Thomas Sowell once noted, if you take a physical trend – any physical trend, no matter what it is – and extrapolate it linearly into the future, the result will be catastrophe. Sowell’s point, of course, is not that the world is bound to end but that linear extrapolation of physical trends beyond the very near future (i.e. nowcasting) is invalid. The world just doesn’t work like that. Sowell made this point to counter the predictions by environmentalists of widespread famine and oil shortages by the mid 1980’s.
It strikes me that when Mark Steyn predicted the Eupocalypse in America Alone, he is making the same mistake that Paul Ehrlich did in his book, The Population Bomb, only in reverse. If extrapolating linearly into the future is an inaccurate technique, then extrapolating exponentially into the future is doubly bad.
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May '10
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
Illegal immigration has waned ever since the midst of the recession in 2009. It's no surprise that as the demand for labour fell and US wages dropped, the movement of illegals fell as well. This suggests that the illegals operate in accordance with the laws of economics.
Edited on Jul 15, 2011 at 5:19pmRe: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
Perfectly and concisely stated, Michael.
This is in line with my own anecdotal evidence. When there are no jobs to be had, many of the illegal immigrants I know go home to weather the storm back home in Mexico where they have families. When things recover here, they might return.
Feb '11
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
The US still has the allure of greater economic opportunity and when the economy recovers they will return. One has to also consider that there have been decades of cutural exchanges. Young people see the images of greater material wealth to be found in the US (even though they will never likely experience it). Even if they were to find a decent job in Mexico the idea of US material prosperity has become so ingrained that people if allowed will still come to the US. There are thousands of people who rely solely on remitances and have become accostumed to a lifestyle that cannot be maintained with wages from their native country. They use to money to have nice clothes, cellphones, build nice houses etc. but rarely use the funds to establish small businesses that might lead to greater economic properity. The oligarchal business structure does not allow for greater economic growth and middle class jobs are still difficult to find. Add to this dysfuctional mess is the cartel led violence and lawlessness. It boils down to the old saying, follow the money.
May '10
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
You're wrong on the second point, CC. If you read America Alone, Steyn doesn't base his analysis on predictions of modern trends continuing into the future. Europe's future is already decided by its current demographics.
In many major European cities, 30-40% of kids in elementary education are Muslims. That's Europe's next generation. Regardless of whether or not current trends of immigration from Asia and North Africa continue, the cultural values of those kids will become a major political force very soon.
And, though it's not certain, it's likely that those kids will be negatively influenced by their parents' current refusal to assimilate to their host cultures. Too many moved to France or Britain to become welfare recipients, rather than to become Frenchmen and Brits.
Canadian Cincinnatus:
“From 1980 to 2008, more than 5 million Mexicans legally entered the United States. And Mexicans account for about 60 percent of the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. today.
That figure might as well say 90 percent, because the vast majority of illegals who are not Mexican are pouring through the Mexican border and come from similar hispanic cultures.
Oct '10
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
This is David Frum on Immigration circa 2005. GOP, You Are Warned.
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
No growth in jobs, no Mexicans.
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
Frum is a very good indicator of nonsense. He embraces it every time.
Mar '11
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
Cincinnatus, aren't you making the same mistake you claim Steyn made? This might only be a pause in the migrant flow returning to full strength once Conservatives restore the economy.
May '10
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
1. I read Steyn's book. That is an egregiously unfair and incorrect statement of his argument.
2. Illegal immigration has slowed because a) the economy sucks; and (more importantly) b) due to the drug gangs northern Mexico has become a deathtrap for transient, desperate, necessarily furtive people.
Oct '10
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
A further Euro vs. US difference is the birth rate of the native population. Among American women, it is about 1.89, or slightly under the replacement rate of 2.11. So unlike Britain, Germany Spain, France, Greece and Italy, whose rates are between 1.3 and 1.7, our native population is not in rapid decline, thus blunting the cultural impact of immigrants.
Dec '10
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
Current economic arguments having been made, I will merely add that I see three different groups: The post 1986 Mexican immigration cohort, the Newest cohort, and the Ancient cohort that has existed for generations. Our institutions actively support the post 1986 cohort and encourage them to resist assimilation, which is a divisive influence in a coherent society.
Those that are not leaving because of lost job opportunities (the Newest cohort), are the post 1986 group, the least productive and the most apt to become a burden to society. The Ancient cohort also appears to be hanging on, along with the rest of America. I would offer some form of amnesty to the Ancient cohort that has been here for generations, some form of worker program to the Newest cohort, and boot out most of the post 1986 cohort that seems to comprise the aggrieved and entitled folks I have encountered.
It's that latter cohort that appears to be taking the benefits that most Americans won't take and which is most favored by the academic and government classes.
But what do I know; I live in a swamp in Florida, so I obviously come from the Dumb cohort.
Jul '10
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
Steyn himself has acknowledged the straight-line-projection problem on multiple occasions. His purpose is to point up the demographic reality so that we can do something about it (thus his sobriquet "The Happy Warrior"), not in order to point out that catastrophe is inevitable.
May '11
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
Paul A. Rahe: "No growth in jobs, no Mexicans."
No welfare state with near total unaccountability, no illegal immigrants.
Edited on Jul 15, 2011 at 5:11pmMay '10
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
The race is not to the swift, or the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet. And I'm betting that Steyn is closer to correct than our esteemed fellow Ricochetian Canadian Cincinnatus.
May '10
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
I have to learn to proofread before I post.
May '11
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
The demographic status of our country as being above the replacement rate is almost entirely due to immigration. That is not necessarily a point of national pride. Immigration has been the very essence of the strength of America but it has the potential to be its doom.
Aug '10
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
So all it takes to stem illegal immigration across the border is a financial crisis and recovery-less recession? I think the border fence would have been cheaper.
(And Mark Steyn's analysis of demographic problems is a lot more robust than a mere straight line analysis.)
Jul '10
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
Southern Pessimist
No welfare state with near total unaccountability, no illegal immigrants. · Jul 15 at 5:09pm
Edited on Jul 15 at 05:11 pm
I disagree with that. Many may be fleeing tyranny and oppression and/or pursuing Freedom. Yer comment is a blanket best left in Yer closet.
Southern Pessimist
Immigration has been the very essence of the strength of America but it has the potential to be its doom. · Jul 15 at 5:26pm
Horse-hockey. If that be the case, then why have border or border enforcement?
Edited on Jul 15, 2011 at 5:54pmAug '10
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
Paul A. Rahe
Frum is a very good indicator of nonsense. He embraces it every time.
I generally agree, but in this particular article I don't see anything major to disagree with.
May '11
Re: Illegal Immigration from Mexico Declining Rapidly: A Lesson for Mark Steyn
Jimmy Carter
Southern Pessimist
No welfare state with near total unaccountability, no illegal immigrants. · Jul 15 at 5:09pm
Edited on Jul 15 at 05:11 pm
I disagree with that. Many may be fleeing tyranny and oppression and/or pursuing Freedom. Yer comment is a blanket best left in Yer closet.
Southern Pessimist
Immigration has been the very essence of the strength of America but it has the potential to be its doom. · Jul 15 at 5:26pm
Horse-hockey. If that be the case, then why have border or border enforcement? · Jul 15 at 5:53pm
Edited on Jul 15 at 05:54 pm
Our welfare state may be a small factor in the incidence of illegal immigration but it is not negligible.I don't follow your other comment at all. If we can't control our borders, what can we control?