Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
Last week, approximately 50 Ricochet Members gathered in San Francisco to hear a conversation between Chuck Schwab and AEI's Arthur Brooks on the moral case for the free enterprise system. Following the conversation was a Q&A session during which one Member asked Arthur Brooks for his thoughts concerning the illegal immigration crisis at the United States' southern border. Brooks rejected the premise that the U.S. is currently experiencing an illegal immigration crisis, but to the extent that Americans still fret about the problem, he believes that it's likely to work itself out.
As we've seen to be the case for a few years now, a languishing U.S. economy has caused Mexican immigration to slow significantly. Mexicans now have a better shot at finding jobs in Mexico, whose unemployment rate has been in the high 4 to 5 percent range, than they do in the U.S. But looking beyond what we all hope will be a temporary recession, a return to high rates of Mexican immigration is unlikely. Why? Because with plummeting fertility rates, Mexico's demographics are on their way to looking more and more like Europe's. Take a look at this chart:
With fertility rates barely above replacement rate, but still falling sharply (2012's fertility rate, not included in this chart, is 2.27) Brooks predicts that by the time today's children reach voting age, illegal immigration will seem to them a complete non-issue.
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Feb '12
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
Are you sure that wasn't Albert Brooks?
What a bunch whewy.
Please tell me, he was run off the stage in shame.
Jun '10
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
Even if Brooks is right in the near term (and he could well be), it's clear to me that America must create a long-term solution to illegal immigration that includes two key elements: no amnesty and vigorous enforcement.
Oct '10
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
Tell Mr. Brooks to spend a year in my birthplace of Laredo, Texas and then repeat that codswallop with a straight face.
Mar '11
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
Diane, the people looking for a day's work that I meet these days at Home Depot are often from Central America not Mexico. I wonder if a (many?) anthropology grad-student is doing a study of the changing demographics of the day worker population. Thanks for arranging the meet up after the Brooks event. It was fun.
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
I think it's more likely that he's right in the long term, and that fertility rates in Mexico and Central America will be plummeting as have Europe's. I suppose that would mean that we need a short-term solution, wouldn't it? But with the federal govt, solutions to today's problems don't usually happen until tomorrow.
Feb '11
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
I'm sorry Diane but I disagree. It's been recognized for some time within the Mexican intelligensia that its not that individuals can't get jobs in Mexico. The driver for immigration to the US is that it offers comparably higher wages. Why work as a maid/busboy/etc. in Mexico for a pittance of wages when you can do the same work for higher wages in the US (even the under the table wages are higher). Add in the generous welfare state benefits for the children born here (food stamps/free breakfast & lunches/free schooling/free healthcare,etc.), the automatic US citizenship of the said children and its not that difficult to understand the phenomena. The illegal immigrants are taking a calculated risk and so far in many ways it has paid off. The thing is that most illegal immigrants still think that the state of this country is wealthy enough to keep absorbing high levels of immigrants who are mostly unskilled and have low levels of literacy.
May '10
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
Interesting. I wonder how much Japan's declining population has affected immigration from that country.
But Mexicans aren't sneaking into the country because of overpopulation. And it's not just young Mexicans.
In any case, they will be leaving just as fast when the debt hits the fan.
Nov '11
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
I'm a believer in free markets, and therefore support free flow of goods, capital, and labor across borders--subject to reasonable safety regulations. (Reasonable safety regulations, but certainly not the current scheme that makes it impossible easily to distinguish someone coming across to bus tables from someone coming across to bomb buses.)
I've never understood people who claim to support free markets, yet want economic barriers for labor markets. The obvious free market solution to illegal immigration is to raise legal immigration quotas to levels high enough to reflect economic reality.
The human waves from the south were impelled and attracted by economic, cultural, and political conditions that made the migration akin to a force of nature. Until those conditions had changed, neither demagogic laws nor more rigorous enforcement would have done much good.
We might as well pass laws to prevent birds from flying north in summer.
We might as well make it illegal for hurricanes to enter the Gulf of Mexico.
About this, I have long been at odds with many conservatives, including most suprisingly, libertarians.
But now that conditions that supported and impelled the migration are changing, perhaps we can soon quit the divisive argument.
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
Aaron Miller:
But Mexicans aren't sneaking into the country because of overpopulation. And it's not just young Mexicans.
That's not the argument. It's that there will be fewer of them to immigrate in the first place. If their fertility rate trends continue, they will be a contracting population very soon. I'm curious to know why that is.
May '10
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
It would be nice to have an immigration policy (and an economy) in which we got a few more first-round draft picks (foreign PhD's, engineers, entrepenuers, etc) to become citizens.
As for Brooks, at least he didn't predict that by the time today's kids reach voting age they'll be sneaking across the border into Mexico. Sometimes I wonder.
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
Brooks made this point too, fwiw. But it's a separate discussion.
May '10
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
Diane, if you're still there: Did Brooks happen to mention whether he'd been consulted by the Romney campaign? Some of Romney's rhetoric lately -- making the moral case for free markets, defining fairness on our terms -- has been almost verbatim from his book. They've clearly read it, at least.
Edited on June 12, 2012 at 12:57amMay '10
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
Diane Ellis, Ed.
Aaron Miller:
But Mexicans aren't sneaking into the country because of overpopulation. And it's not just young Mexicans.
That's not the argument. It's that there will be fewer of them to immigrate in the first place. ...
Yes, but which Mexicans? Like any nation, Mexico has various subcultures with different birthrates. And, in any nation, birthrates are generally highest among the poor.
Mexico's overall population might be declining for the same reasons populations are declining all over the world (basically, ennui and cultural corruption). But it's poorer citizens probably buck that trend. And it's those who are sneaking into Texas and California.
Nov '11
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
It seems to me that a government policy that prefers PhDs over plumbers would be another instance of the government trying to manipulate the economy by deciding which goods and services need to be supported or produced.
Isn't it possible that, at a particular moment in time, what a free economy might need would not be more flaccid Ph.D.s, but more hardy fellows who know where to put a roofing nail in a shingle?
Why should the government in a free economy be in charge of influencing how many PhDs and how many plumbers helpers the economy should be demanding at any particular moment?
Don't you see how government-influenced over-production of PhDs and other college-educated non-producers has harmed our economy and our society during the last thirty years?
I am beyond distressed by the unchallenged interventionist premises that underlie supposedly conservative immigration policies.
Edited on June 12, 2012 at 7:21pmJun '10
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
Conservatives don't like the idea of a National ID Card, because it can be (and will be) used to monitor their travel, and liberals don't like it because it might prevent vote fraud, I guess, but it is THE solution to the illegal immigrant problem.
There are ways to make ID cards that are easily checked (with an inexpensive machine) for forgery (based on math, not on reproduction quality,) so fake cards would not be the issue. They can also use biometrics, to prevent impostors from using somebody else's authentic card. They can be as secure as you want them to be. The problem is, just like the illegals, actual citizens like their anonymity too much. But that's a ship that's already sailed.
As long as we've lost our privacy already, it's time for a National ID Card. If you don't have one, that an ID card reader will verify, then you don't get a job, you don't get public services, you get nothing. Zip, zero, nada. The only effective fence is on the desk of the employer. If you have the card, you get through the fence.
Mar '12
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
But what about the demographic trends in Central America? in Equatorial Africa? As long as we have a de facto open border, absolute poverty, a generous welfare system and relatively cheap means of transportation, illegal immigration will be with us. The repeated amnesties of the 80s and 90s and the continued commitment of (at least) one of our major parties to future amnesties have given all the incentives in the world to such immigration. Declarations that it is a non-issue are simply Beltway happy talk, intended to lull Tea Party America back into its slumbers.
Nov '11
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
Mel Foil: Conservatives don't like the idea of a National ID Card, because it can be (and will be) used to monitor their . . . but it is THE solution to the illegal immigrant problem.
. . . .
. . . we've lost our privacy already, it's time for a National ID Card. . . . The only effective fence is on the desk of the employer. . . .
Why do you want to prevent a willing employer and a willing worker from engaging in an economic transaction for their mutual benefit?
Do you favor protectionist barrier against imported goods? Or only against imported labor?
Pretty scarey to me that supposedly freedom loving conservatives are happy to sacrifice both economic freedom and personal freedom to prevent a guy with a sixth grade education from mowing lawns.
Are you not aware that unreasonable government interference in economic transactions, including the free movement of labor, is exactly what creates black markets--including the black market in immigrant labor? Econ 101: Further attempts to control a black market that arises from unreasonable restrictions on economic transactions will result in even more disruptive black markets.
Improperly regulated immigration does cause problems . . . but proper regulation does not include restricting perfectly rational economic behavior.
Edited on June 12, 2012 at 2:38amMay '12
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
Very interesting data, thanks for the post.
We can help ourselves greatly if we test citizenship for admission to public schools or any kind of government benefit or healthcare.
May '10
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
Astonishing
Don't you see how government-influenced over-production of PhDs and other college-educated non-producers has harmed our economy and our society during the last thirty years?
I am beyond distressed by the unchallenged interventionist premises that underlie supposedly conservative immigration policies.
The US benefited immeasurably by welcoming highly educated, accomplished immigrants in the mid-20th century. It gave us a huge edge over the Soviets, for example, who saw an exodus of same.
At the moment our policies are interventionist only in the sense that they inhibit the free flow of such people to the US. (And obviously when I speak of PhD's I'm not referring to doctorates in gender studies or some such, who at any rate wouldn't be interested in coming here since there's no demand for their "skills".)
Nov '11
Re: Illegal Immigration Will Take Care of Itself
Me: What is your problem with illegal immigration?
Him (angrily): The problem with illegal immigration is that it is illegal.
Me: If the only problem with illegal immigration is that it is illegal, then that is a very easy problem to solve: Simply make it legal. But if you think there are other problems with immigration, problems that would not be solved simply by declaring it legal (problelms such as language, welfare, citizenship), then let's discuss what those other problems are. And then, once we have identified what those real problems are, maybe we can find ways to address those problems without abandoning free market principles, without improperly restricting labor movements and blindly sacrificing our personal freedoms with ID cards that transform employers into state enforcement agents.
I begin from the principle that in a free society the free movement of all economic resources, including labor resources, is fundamental (subject only to reasonable regulations for health and safety).
Instead of stubbornly declaring "it's wrong because it's illegal," we should change our immigration laws to allow workers legally to come (and go) across our borders in response to economic demand (subject to reasonable restrictions for health and safety).