Illegal Emigration
For the first time in decades -- maybe longer -- more Mexicans are leaving the United States than entering it. From WaPo:
“I think the massive boom in Mexican immigration is over and I don’t think it will ever return to the numbers we saw in the 1990s and 2000s,” said Douglas Massey, a professor of sociology and public affairs at Princeton University and co-director of the Mexican Migration Project, which has been gathering data on the subject for 30 years.
Nearly 1.4 million Mexicans moved from the United States to Mexico between 2005 and 2010, double the number who did so a decade earlier. The number of Mexicans who moved to the United States during that period fell to less than half of the 3 million who came between 1995 and 2000.
The trend could have major political consequences, underscoring the delicate dance by the Republican and Democratic parties as they struggle with immigration policies and court the increasingly important Latino vote.
It's the economy, apparently. Which makes sense, I guess. But what does that say about the future of the unemployment rate? Shouldn't it go down, with a presumably tighter labor market, thanks to the exodus of Mexicans? And does that make the "increasingly important" Latino vote decreasingly important?
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Comments:
Jan '11
Re: Illegal Emigration
White hispanics are running from the lynch mobs.
Dec '10
Re: Illegal Emigration
Birthrates.
Sep '11
Re: Illegal Emigration
A sound U.S. foreign policy, IMHO, should spend a lot more time encouraging political and economic reform in Latin America than in many other parts of the world. Not that the Republic of Ingushetia isn't a vital national interest, but just a modicum of economic development in Mexico would dramatically change the economies and populations of their country and ours.
Mexico needs both economic reform and political reform: the politics of Mexico create--and maintain--a permanent underclass with little hope of opportunity. The entrepreneurs of that underclass recognize that their prospects are better in the U.S., and migrate. So long as that's true, migration will continue.
Create significant economic opportunity in Mexico, and migration will drop dramatically.
Nov '10
Re: Illegal Emigration
Great, now I'm going to have to pay union rates to get my fence built.
Dec '11
Re: Illegal Emigration
Southpark had an episode about this last season. Hilarious.
Re: Illegal Emigration
The unemployment rate in Mexico is lower than ours.
Apr '12
Re: Illegal Emigration
South Park on the money again?
Oct '11
Re: Illegal Emigration
You mean undocumented self-deportation.
Self-deportation...hmm...
Aug '10
Re: Illegal Emigration
This study must be wrong - there is no way that illegals would ever self-deport, it's just not possible.
We know that from listening to the Dems and the MSM making fun of Romney's comments about self-deportation.
Jan '11
Re: Illegal Emigration
Hmmm. 1.4 million to US versus to Mexico "less than half the 3 million
of previous period". But that is 1.4 million vs. less than 1.5 million for a net of about zero. One wouldn't expect a change in job market for a net near zero. If this trend continues, then may be an impact. The actual Pew release is titled Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero so blame Wash. Post for any confusion.
Jan '11
Re: Illegal Emigration
It's too difficult to know the effect. My gut feeling says that many of those people who came here to work were employed in jobs in which much of the (potential?) labor market will just turn their noses up at anyway. And the outflow of people will certainly decrease the total amount of economic activities and transactions. But all that is unclear as to how the unemployment rate will be affected for those of us who stay here. Ask yourself this, though: if the amount of people who are leaving is significant, isn't there a whole host of industries which will be negatively affected by a decrease in demand for goods and services and will this not result is income-earning opportunities being cut?
Apr '11
Re: Illegal Emigration
Much of the flood of Mexicans to begin with had been because the PRI was losing power and they were the ones to police the border to begin with. And much of the reason why they started going back was because the PRI would arrest you for a traitor and do rather nasty things to you, so once they were out of power they were free to come and go as well.
When President Fox asked them to come back and Calderon said that he needed them back, they were more than happy to go home. They are Mexicans after all. It is their home.
Re: Illegal Emigration
The King Prawn
Birthrates. · 5 hours ago
KP makes a good point. And when we talk about the Latino vote, we aren't talking about illegal immigrants who have just arrived anyhow since they can't vote (nor do they especially want to). Aren't we mostly talking about the three million+ illegal immigrants who became eligible for amnesty under Reagan in the '80s and their children, many of whom are natural born citizens?
Jul '11
Re: Illegal Emigration
I don't think the unemployment rate will go down. Illegal emigrants are, well, illegal. They tend to do jobs off the books in the underground economy. While these jobs may now be done by people here legally I suspect it will still be an underground economy job done off the books. I mean these jobs are underground for a reason.
Apr '12
Re: Illegal Emigration
With all the new regulations going on? The unemployment rate is going to explode-- it's just that those folks who game the unemployment system will have an easier time finding cash jobs, for higher pay than the poor idiots who actually follow the law.
Not that this idiot rule-follower is bitter, or anything.