Recording our podcast this morning, Paul Rahe maintained that Americans were ready to listen to bracing, difficult talk from politicians--including our guest, Congressman Paul Ryan--about the need to cut federal spending deeply.
Whereupon the following exchange (more or less; I'm going from memory) ensued:
PETER: Paul, even Ronald Reagan was only able to slow the growth of entitlement spending, not scale it back. What makes you suppose things are different now?
PAUL: What's different now is that we have no choice. The welfare state is simply unsustainable.
PETER: But do enough Americans realize that yet? You're talking about major reforms of entitlement programs that are now woven through every aspect of our national life. Won't the public brook reforms only when the crisis is actually upon us and not projected to take place sometime in five or ten or 15 years?
PAUL: There is a real sense of crisis in the country right now.
Which of course raises an obvious question. I put the question to Paul on the air, but, since we ran out of time before he addressed it, I promised to post it online. Here goes:
The last time we experienced a national sense of crisis of the kind you suggest is once again taking place, Paul, the president was Jimmy Carter--and his approval rating, according to Gallup, fell to 28 percent.
Barack Obama's approval rating? In polling completed just a few days ago, Gallup reports, the figure stood at 50 percent. And it has never--not once--dropped below 41 percent.
If there's a sense of crisis in the country right now, Paul, why is Barack Obama enjoying ratings almost twice as high as those of Jimmy Carter?
- Comment (15)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (4)
Comments :
Jul '10
Re: If There's Such a Sense of Crisis in the Country, Paul Rahe, Then How do You Explain This?
Unlike Jimmy Carter, thanks to identity politics, there is a floor below which Obama's approval will never fall. It is lower than 41%, but not much. It will not be enough to save him in 517 days. Segments of the population with real unemployment rates of 20% or more and growing are just pleased as punch that there is now a politician combatting the evil and degradation that the racist George W. Bush has visited on them.
And any political choice that grieves all those racist, rich corporate stooge Tea Partiers is a blow for equality.
May '10
Re: If There's Such a Sense of Crisis in the Country, Paul Rahe, Then How do You Explain This?
Is there a difference between "personal approval" and "job approval?" What was the infamous right track/wrong track number at this point in the Carter Administration?
Dec '10
Re: If There's Such a Sense of Crisis in the Country, Paul Rahe, Then How do You Explain This?
The way I read it, Carter did fall from 58% to 32% in the eight months beginning January 1980.
Fast forward: We are 17 months out and stagflation has just begun. That's what did JC in. That is what will do Obama in.
Mar '11
Re: If There's Such a Sense of Crisis in the Country, Paul Rahe, Then How do You Explain This?
Excellent question. I know people who, having drunk their fill of the Hope-and-Change Kool-Aid, are still favorably inclined towards the President, but think that the country is headed in the wrong direction. The wording of the questions is crucial in polls like this.
At this point in the Carter Administration, we started to hear the term "misery index" again, after Carter had made use of it heavily in his campaign in 1976. I wonder if we'll ever hear it again.
Dec '10
Re: If There's Such a Sense of Crisis in the Country, Paul Rahe, Then How do You Explain This?
Gallup does publish a rolling three-day Job Approval/Disapproval rating every day. He's still doing fine: 49-41.
Oct '10
Re: If There's Such a Sense of Crisis in the Country, Paul Rahe, Then How do You Explain This?
Jay Cost recommended we track the "Deserves to be re-elected" number, not the approval rating number. This number has consistently been in the low forties. Whether President Obama can be defeated, and whether Americans will support a reduction in their entltlements are really two questions. I think Obama can be defeated. The effectiveness of Republicans in explaining why Paul Ryan's budget is absolutely necessary will determine whether the American voting public agrees to reduce their entitlements.
Jul '10
Re: If There's Such a Sense of Crisis in the Country, Paul Rahe, Then How do You Explain This?
I think most pollsters have found a way to "hide the decline."
Most of the leftys on campus think he's too conservative with Gitmo, the wars, etc.
Will the pull the trigger for him? Sure. In the same way I voted for McCain.
He beats the alternative.
Dec '10
Re: If There's Such a Sense of Crisis in the Country, Paul Rahe, Then How do You Explain This?
Sisyphus: Unlike Jimmy Carter, thanks to identity politics, there is a floor below which Obama's approval will never fall. It is lower than 41%, but not much. It will not be enough to save him in 517 days. Segments of the population with real unemployment rates of 20% or more and growing are just pleased as punch that there is now a politician combatting the evil and degradation that the racist George W. Bush has visited on them.
And any political choice that grieves all those racist, rich corporate stooge Tea Partiers is a blow for equality.
THIS!
There are segments of the population that would gladly remain grievously poor if that gave them the opportunity to "stick it to whitey".
Unfortunately, to a lot of poor people, anything that hurts business is seen as a good thing. I do not understand this line of thinking, but that doesn't preclude it from existing.
Obama has the blind faith and a lifetime of votes from a certain percentage of the country, pretty much no matter what.
Fortunately, those fools are still relatively small in number. We have to act quickly though, because this may not always be so.
Dec '10
Re: If There's Such a Sense of Crisis in the Country, Paul Rahe, Then How do You Explain This?
Michael Tee: I think most pollsters have found a way to "hide the decline."
Most of the leftys on campus think he's too conservative with Gitmo, the wars, etc.
Will the pull the trigger for him? Sure. In the same way I voted for McCain.
He beats the alternative. · Jun 8 at 4:21pm
Actually, I expect many of those lefties will stay home, depending upon how strongly the opponent is polling immediately before the election.
Oct '10
Re: If There's Such a Sense of Crisis in the Country, Paul Rahe, Then How do You Explain This?
What about the "Wilder Effect," named after Virgina Democrat Governor (who is black) that polled consistently higher across all pre-election polls, yet come election time he lost?
I think when the questions are impersonal policy-oriented questions (right track/wrong track, handling of economy, handling of foreign policy), people give their true beliefs and opinions. But when asked about the approval of the first black President of the United States, they hedge towards the positive so that they don't seem like a racist to the pollster on the other end of the phone.
Sad.
Edited on Jun 9, 2011 at 10:24amApr '11
Re: If There's Such a Sense of Crisis in the Country, Paul Rahe, Then How do You Explain This?
Everyone in every group wants what they believe is best for them, the difficult part is getting those groups to understand that traditional votes are actually not in their best interests. Why does the black population continually vote Democratic when Democratic policies hurt jobs; why does the Jewish community continually vote Democratic, and especially with this administration, when the Democratic party appears weak on support of Isreal? Education is the answer, if we can get enough to listen. It's happening, but it's happening slowly. I see a lot more examples of good minority conservatives then I've ever known before. I like it! It means there is hope for the future.
Apr '11
Re: If There's Such a Sense of Crisis in the Country, Paul Rahe, Then How do You Explain This?
There is that new CNN poll that has 48 % of Americans saying they expect another Great Depression in the next 12 months.
But what percentage of that is Republicans who think Obama is responsible because of his policies and what percentage is Democrats who think the evil mean Republicans are going to cause a depression by not raising the debt ceiling or passing more stimulus?
Aug '10
Re: If There's Such a Sense of Crisis in the Country, Paul Rahe, Then How do You Explain This?
No, not "stick it to whitey" but "stick it to the anybody but me." The other guy should pay... whoever he may be.
I overheard a colleague in Berkeley griping about Obama on the phone to a friend. The rant went on for a good 15 minutes touching on everything from unemployment (his college grad kid can't find a job) to Obama's failure to end the war in Afganistan to the Patriot Act. When I tried to engage him afterward, he looked at me stone-faced and said "Obama is the best President we've ever had." This guy is white. He's also a hard-core Democrat. They don't like the job Obama's doing, but they cannot bring themselves to admit that by voting for the Great Black Hope they voted the country into a financial Great Black Hole.
Mar '11
Re: If There's Such a Sense of Crisis in the Country, Paul Rahe, Then How do You Explain This?
Market researchers and political pollsters have long known that respondents often answer less than truthfully, even when the samples are representative and the wording and sequence of the questions are not designed to affect the answers. It shouldn’t be surprising that given the uniquely horrific history of Blacks in America, many respondents of all races are uncomfortable answering in any but the most politically correct manner, lest they be perceived to be racially prejudiced.
The more Democrats play the race card, the more likely the results of political polls will skew in Obama’s direction. But in the privacy of the voting booth, voters may express their preferences free from the judgments of others – and they will.
Oct '10
Re: If There's Such a Sense of Crisis in the Country, Paul Rahe, Then How do You Explain This?
Peter Robinson: The last time we experienced a national sense of crisis of the kind you suggest is once again taking place, Paul, the president was Jimmy Carter--and his approval rating, according to Gallup, fell to 28 percent.
Barack Obama's approval rating? In polling completed just a few days ago, Gallup reports, the figure stood at 50 percent. And it has never--not once--dropped below 41 percent.
If there's a sense of crisis in the country right now, Paul, why is Barack Obama enjoying ratings almost twice as high as those of Jimmy Carter? ·
The Bradley Effect is alive and well, Peter and Paul. they like (or want to like) him personally, but don't agree with his policies or the way he is handling the economy.