I Like Newt!
Several years ago, I saw Newt Gingrich speak at CPAC. I was blown away and texted a friend—an expert political observer—"I feel like I just saw the next president." Instantly, my friend texted back, "Lie down until the feeling passes." I continue to get that from most of the really knowledgeable people I talk to, the sentiment generally being, as one put it, "Newt. Can't. Win."
But I don't know. I don't generally make predictions (except to say, of course, that the Broncos will win the Super Bowl because while Aaron Rodgers may be playing for Green Bay, Jesus is playing for Denver), but a Newt victory seems to me completely possible. If Mitt's tepid support isn't enough to stop Newt from making off with the nomination (see Peter's post below), and Newt goes head-to-head against President Me? Hell, I could imagine a 57 state Republican sweep. Not saying it will happen, but it's easy to see how it could.
The objections to Newt range from the petty (He talked to Donald Trump), to the irrelevant (He cheated on his wife. I mean, too bad, but it'll never happen again because Callista would rip his jugular out with her teeth), to the substantial (He's talked a lot of guff about climate change, universal health care, cap and trade, etc.). But in real life, Newt's a smart guy who loves the country, wants to go down in history as a great president and, if elected with a strong Republican congress, would mostly do the right thing. At least he would turn us away from the cliff President Sillyman is driving us toward.
Mitt Romney, on the other hand, would lose to Obama. And, dude, at this point, I feel like an eggplant with a face painted on it could beat Obama. But not Romney.
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Comments :
Mar '11
Re: I Like Newt!
Copperfield: ... his lack of organization.
Given the choice, I choose Romney, the executive who organizes, compartmentalizes, identifies contingencies, and plans for them.
This point gets passed over too often in discussions of the candidates' strengths and weaknesses.
Even a president with the "perfect" positions on every issue will be a disaster if he cannot run a large bureaucracy. The president has but 24 h in a day yet his responsibilities require a year's worth of work in that time. Without the ability to select competent employees and delegate work, the best candidate can become a dangerous leader.
Gingrich has a horrible track record as a director. None of his colleagues from his speakership will speak well of him, his staff all quit last spring, and he is apparently still micromanaging his campaign.
We have already had several presidents who thought they were the smartest person in the room and did not need meaningful assisstance - exhibit A being Obama.
Jul '10
Re: I Like Newt!
Yeah, a rake could never do anything worthwhile as a politician.
Sep '11
Re: I Like Newt!
Newt's biggest plus right now is his ability to draw stark contrasts between Obama liberalism & free-market conservatism ("Do you want a Food Stamp President or a Paycheck President"). His commitment to stay away from negative comments about his Republican rivals & politically smart.
His self-discipline, however, has a horribly short shelf life, especially when the spotlight is on him. His prodigious mind works both ways; he can analyze and apply history in a heartbeat to great effect, but he seems to not be able to have an unspoken idea, some of which are not very good. In this he reminds me of Dick Morris during the Clinton years, another brilliant guy who had some dumb (or at least unrealistic) ideas.
In short, it's the temperament that worries me. A presidential campaign (and the Presidency that one hopes follows after) is a crucible like few others, and I fear that Newt's newfound discipline has not yet been sufficiently tested to believe that it will last. A President has to have a lively, inquisitive mind to ask good questions, but also the ability to weigh information, make decisions and maintain disciple over his emotions.
Apr '11
Re: I Like Newt!
Michael Tee
Yeah, a rake could never do anything worthwhile as a politician. · Dec 8 at 1:17pm
Yeah...ditto n' stuff.
Dec '11
Re: I Like Newt!
I, too, would like to win the national arguement, instead of putting a warm body in a seat for 4-8 years of not much.
Re: I Like Newt!
My point about adultery is this. Newt's adultery is irrelevant in the general election because a person can repeatedly cheat on his wife and be a good president, even a great president. We can pretend this isn't true because it wouldn't be true if life were just, but life isn't just and it's true. Right now, we need a good president very, very badly. If I had to choose between Obama being faithful and Newt cheating, I'd take a cheating Newt. If I had to choose between Mitt being faithful and losing to Obama... Newt. Stinks, I know. And when God appoints me judge over my fellow man's private morality, I'll take a different tack. But when that happens, boy oh boy, you're all in trouble.
Dec '11
Re: I Like Newt!
Does Newt have good tastes in his selections of mistrisses?
Feb '11
Re: I Like Newt!
DrewInWisconsin
David Williamson:
Andrew, I'm curious what you think about Glenn Beck's opposition to Newt? - that is harder to understand.
Could it be as simple as Glenn Beck and Mitt Romney both being Mormons? · Dec 8 at 12:47pm
Wow, I think that is a very unworthy comment. By this reasoning I should be a Newt supporter because he's Catholic and so am I. I have never listened to or watched Glenn Beck (really truly!) but I can't believe he is so knee-jerk. I suppose it is possible that he is willing to subordinate his political judgement to his religious affiliation, but I doubt he'd be such a successful and seemingly respected pundit?
Edited on Dec 8, 2011 at 2:09pmAug '11
Re: I Like Newt!
Mama Toad
DrewInWisconsin
David Williamson:
Andrew, I'm curious what you think about Glenn Beck's opposition to Newt? - that is harder to understand.
Could it be as simple as Glenn Beck and Mitt Romney both being Mormons?
Wow, I think that is a very unworthy comment. By this reasoning I should be a Newt supporter because he's Catholic and so am I. I have never listened to or watched Glenn Beck (really truly!) but I can't believe he is so knee-jerk.
I honestly don't know; I was just considering this very simple, logical possibility instead of trying to find some grand theory that made better sense. Sometimes the answer is right there in front of our eyes, and we don't see it.
But I am assured above that the closest Beck has come to an endorsement is Michele Bachmann, . . . and that makes sense, too.
I've never bothered with Beck, myself. What little I've seen of him sounded way too much like some end-times preacher on the tent circuit, and that was a bit of a turn-off.
Aug '10
Re: I Like Newt!
This doesn't exactly follow. Would we call smoking irrelevant to athletic performance just because there are successful athletes (many professional dancers, for example; some marathon runners) who smoke?
All else being equal, having a history of adultery makes you less trustworthy, just as all else being equal, smoking impairs your athletic performance.
Obviously, not all else is equal in this case (nor is it likely that all else is ever completely equal). Still, being able to point to great men with vice X doesn't by itself make vice X irrelevant.
Agreed.
It's not about moral condemnation. It's about prudence.
Many saints had checkered pasts yet became saints, and perhaps the same thing will happen (or is happening) to Newt. It's still prudent to question the trustworthiness of those who seek power.
Edited on Dec 8, 2011 at 6:03pmFeb '11
Re: I Like Newt!
test
Jun '10
Re: I Like Newt!
Midget Faded Rattlesnake
It's not about moral condemnation. It's about prudence.
Many saints had checkered pasts yet became saints, and I won't say the same transformation couldn't happen to Newt. It's still prudent to question the trustworthiness of those who seek power. · Dec 8 at 2:43pm
Bit of an aside, but I'm curious: has an elected politician ever been canonized? I know there were sainted kings who were great leaders, but they at least had the advantage of being born into the position and thus avoiding the temptations that come with fundraising and the back-room deals that are the bread and butter of electoral politics. Has a democracy ever produced a successful politician who was also a genuine saint?
Sep '10
Re: I Like Newt!
Andrew Klavan:
Mitt Romney, on the other hand, would lose to Obama. And, dude, at this point, I feel like an eggplant with a face painted on it could beat Obama. But not Romney.
Wow, I'm like totally convinced, dude.
Re: I Like Newt!
What a perfectly fascinating question. Alcide de Gasperi, the prime minister of Italy after the Second World War, is often referred to as "saintly," but that's not what you're asking. You want someone who attained high office by winning votes in a democracy who has been formally canonized.
I'm stumped.
Anyone?
Mar '11
Re: I Like Newt!
etoiledunord
DrewInWisconsin
David Williamson:
Andrew, I'm curious what you think about Glenn Beck's opposition to Newt? - that is harder to understand.
Could it be as simple as Glenn Beck and Mitt Romney both being Mormons? · Dec 8 at 12:47pm
I listen to Beck quite a bit. He's no Mitt fan either. If the presidency was strictly confined to domestic economic issues, I think Beck would support Ron Paul.· Dec 8 at 12:57pm
If it was strictly confined to domestic matters a sizeable mob would be in the Ron Paul camp I imagine.
Apr '11
Re: I Like Newt!
Casey: He also has serious character flaws that make him an easy target. BUT if Obama goes hard after Newt's flaws it will create the perception that he is avoiding a discussion of substance. On the other hand, going toe to toe with Newt is a sure loser for Obama.
Contrast with Romney vs Obama.
In other words, using sports terminology, does Newt create a matchup problem for Obama? · Dec 8 at 1:08pm
Nice thought, Casey, but Obama doesn't have to go after Newt's character flaws. His proxies will be more than happy to do that for him. So all he has to do is not lose too badly on the policy questions.
May '10
Re: I Like Newt!
Re: philandering Presidents (just my recollection) -- Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Reagan, Clinton. Apparently there hasn't been a moral standard in recent memory.
Jan '11
Re: I Like Newt!
What with the fact that saints are, well let's face it, Catholic ... the question is whether there have been enough elected Catholic politicians to muster up a pool of saint candidates. After all, being a politician is, by definition, an invitation for a lot of people to hate your guts - the only people whose convictions matter are those who face opposition. But the Catholic church usually reserves sainthood for people who can be universally admired ... that's kind of why we make them saints in the first place.
It's tough for a politician to be universally loved and admired ... the only way not to offend anyone is to say nothing. But then, what's the point? As we say, you can measure a man by his friends, but a great man by his enemies.
May '10
Re: I Like Newt!
You forgot FDR.He and Elenore were the Bill and Hillary of their time, staying together almost purely out of political expediency.
Feb '11
Re: I Like Newt!
Joseph Stanko
Midget Faded Rattlesnake
It's not about moral condemnation. It's about prudence.
Many saints had checkered pasts yet became saints, and I won't say the same transformation couldn't happen to Newt. It's still prudent to question the trustworthiness of those who seek power. · Dec 8 at 2:43pm
Bit of an aside, but I'm curious: has an elected politician ever been canonized? I know there were sainted kings who were great leaders, but they at least had the advantage of being born into the position and thus avoiding the temptations that come with fundraising and the back-room deals that are the bread and butter of electoral politics. Has a democracy ever produced a successful politician who was also a genuine saint? · Dec 8 at 3:01pm
Not that I know of, Joseph, but the patron saint of politicians is St. Thomas More.