I Like Newt!
Several years ago, I saw Newt Gingrich speak at CPAC. I was blown away and texted a friend—an expert political observer—"I feel like I just saw the next president." Instantly, my friend texted back, "Lie down until the feeling passes." I continue to get that from most of the really knowledgeable people I talk to, the sentiment generally being, as one put it, "Newt. Can't. Win."
But I don't know. I don't generally make predictions (except to say, of course, that the Broncos will win the Super Bowl because while Aaron Rodgers may be playing for Green Bay, Jesus is playing for Denver), but a Newt victory seems to me completely possible. If Mitt's tepid support isn't enough to stop Newt from making off with the nomination (see Peter's post below), and Newt goes head-to-head against President Me? Hell, I could imagine a 57 state Republican sweep. Not saying it will happen, but it's easy to see how it could.
The objections to Newt range from the petty (He talked to Donald Trump), to the irrelevant (He cheated on his wife. I mean, too bad, but it'll never happen again because Callista would rip his jugular out with her teeth), to the substantial (He's talked a lot of guff about climate change, universal health care, cap and trade, etc.). But in real life, Newt's a smart guy who loves the country, wants to go down in history as a great president and, if elected with a strong Republican congress, would mostly do the right thing. At least he would turn us away from the cliff President Sillyman is driving us toward.
Mitt Romney, on the other hand, would lose to Obama. And, dude, at this point, I feel like an eggplant with a face painted on it could beat Obama. But not Romney.
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Comments:
Dec '10
Re: I Like Newt!
This may be the most succinct summation of Romney's problem yet. The begged question, however, is why? Why does Romney inspire so little confidence in his electibility from so many in the party? I have theories, but nothing concrete that fully explains the phenomenon.
Mar '11
Re: I Like Newt!
Not sure I agree with you about Romney--I think he could beat Obama as well, but I like Newt as well. The clincher for me is this (and it would be a clincher for me with Santorum and Bachmann had they run better campaigns): Given all the other crazy things Newt has done and said--from sitting beside Nancy Pelosi to making nice with Hillary Clinton, when he actually had a lot of political power and had the chance to do just about anything with it, he used it to achieve conservative ends. How many politicians can say that?
In fact, I would go as far as to say behind Ronald Reagan, no one in Government has made a bigger, lasting conservative impression. Yes, he obviously offended many people, many even on his own side, but I get the feeling at least part of it could be that some of these Republicans didn't like being knocked out of their complacency. A few too many were happy being in the minority where they had no responsibility. As for his personality, I think he is a changed man. I believe his playing nice with his competitors is genuine.
Sep '10
Re: I Like Newt!
Why does Romney inspire so little confidence in his electibility from so many in the party? I have theories, but nothing concrete that fully explains the phenomenon.
I should do a member post but I don't have time. At the risk of being accused of practicing psychoanalysis without a license, I think Mitt's desire to become part of the East coast establishment (Harvard MBA, Harvard Law) has always been in conflict with his Mormon principles in such a way that he is always the outsider no matter where he goes. I suspect, deep down, that home is the only place he is really comfortable. Ted Kennedy was accepted by the establishment in Boston when he sold out his Catholic convictions and even running to the left of Kennedy, Mitt could never quite convince them he'd sold out enough of his (we'll accept repentant Catholics to the private clubs, but you Mormons are a bridge too far) -- mistrusted by Evangelicals, too educated to be truly at home in Utah and too awash with money to empathize with the "little guy" or "movement conservatives" he's a man without a home except at home.
Edited on December 8, 2011 at 9:38pmJun '10
Re: I Like Newt!
For Newt, sainthood is probably out of reach, but inauguration is not. By the way, sainthood is probably out of reach for Mitt too. To be a saint, you actually have to do something spiritually inspiring, one time.
Dec '11
Re: I Like Newt!
As to Gingrich's "electability," we will all say that it was obvious in hindsight. Either: we should have known that nothing would stick to Gingrich if it hadn't stuck to him already, or we should have known that a guy with so many skeletons and baggage would get taken down by another controversy. I just don't know right now which one is right. http://bit.ly/rIzfwq
Mar '11
Re: I Like Newt!
I agree that Newt can win (if he remembers to put his name on all the ballots). Mr Romney is less likely to win, because Mr Obama's class warfare campaign is primarily aimed at him -- which is why Mr Obama's surrogates are trying to sabotage the other contenders (they seem to have overlooked the egglant).
The Republicans are also trying to sabotage the other contenders because they are the stupid party.
Andrew, I'm curious what you think about Glenn Beck's opposition to Newt? - that is harder to understand.
Edited on December 8, 2011 at 9:42pmMay '10
Re: I Like Newt!
How is Newt's infidelity not relevant, pray tell? Character matters. I feel as though Newt is just the flavor of the month for a fickle and fad-prone GOP electorate.
Edited on December 8, 2011 at 9:45pmNov '10
Re: I Like Newt!
Mr. Klavan, I respectfully disagree. Newt is a bulldog legislator and a brilliant analyst & historian. He has a lot of ideas.. A LOT of ideas.. perhaps too many; and he's become entirely too enamored of technology. He doesn't mind the government doing things most Constitutional Conservatives are uncomfortable with, as long as it's using technology like the private sector to do them efficiently. He seems not to know what Reagan knew; that one man can only do a few big things, even if that man is the President. Executives know this and organize for it. Analysts and legislators have a much harder time.
I fear Newt would be all over the place trying to improve every little process in Washington while failing to build a governing coalition for the really big items. Mr. Romney, for all his policy "flexibility," is an organized, skilled executive. Two articles in the WSJ today address Newt's policy rhetoric v. his plans and his lack of organization.
Given the choice, I choose Romney, the executive who organizes, compartmentalizes, identifies contingencies, and plans for them. And on the military and foreign policy, he's very good.
All respects, sir.
Jun '10
Re: I Like Newt!
If Newt only got votes from America's cheaters and hypocrites, you'd have to label it a landslide victory. It would be.
Aug '11
Re: I Like Newt!
David Williamson:
Andrew, I'm curious what you think about Glenn Beck's opposition to Newt? - that is harder to understand.
Could it be as simple as Glenn Beck and Mitt Romney both being Mormons?
Jun '10
Re: I Like Newt!
Andrew Klavan:
I don't generally make predictions (except to say, of course, that the Broncos will win the Super Bowl because while Aaron Rodgers may be playing for Green Bay, Jesus is playing for Denver), but a Newt victory seems to me completely possible.
"Experts" all said Tebow would never make it in the NFL because he didn't fit their preconceived template of an NFL pocket passer. And yet, he's on a 5 game winning streak.
Newt doesn't fit the template of the "electable" tall good-looking mild-mannered moderate-right former governor that "experts" say we must nominate to win. Put not thy trust in experts.
Aug '10
Re: I Like Newt!
- I think it's because it's already out in the open. Voters want a candidate that is honest with them. Newt may not have been honest with his wife, but he's been (comparatively) honest with the voters.
- Ronald Reagan was divorced, and also an adulterer.
Edited on December 8, 2011 at 10:00pmAug '11
Re: I Like Newt!
Also, is this where I remark that Ronald Reagan didn't enter office as Ronaldo Magnus. He became Ronaldo Magnus.
Jun '10
Re: I Like Newt!
DrewInWisconsin
David Williamson:
Andrew, I'm curious what you think about Glenn Beck's opposition to Newt? - that is harder to understand.
Could it be as simple as Glenn Beck and Mitt Romney both being Mormons? · Dec 8 at 12:47pm
I listen to Beck quite a bit. He's no Mitt fan either. If the presidency was strictly confined to domestic economic issues, I think Beck would support Ron Paul. The closest he's come to endorsing anybody lately is Michele Bachmann. Professional politics is not his skill. He's good at seeing trends and predicting events on a grand scale, but retail politics is not his thing.
Jun '10
Re: I Like Newt!
Hey! I think the students and faculty of the University of Utah and BYU might take exception to that remark...
Aug '10
Re: I Like Newt!
Exactly.
Drew,
Newt's history of philandering doesn't become irrelevant just because Callista is fierce. That he acted the way he he did for a long time says something about his character and temperament. A history of infidelity isn't usually a deal-breaker by itself, especially when pickings are slim, but it's something to take into account.
I'm giving Newt a second look despite my reservations (about philandering as well as other things). But being willing to live with a candidate's flaws doesn't make them irrelevant.
Edited on December 8, 2011 at 10:08pmMar '11
Re: I Like Newt!
etoiledunord
I listen to Beck quite a bit. He's no Mitt fan either. If the presidency was strictly confined to domestic economic issues, I think Beck would support Ron Paul. The closest he's come to endorsing anybody lately is Michele Bachmann.
Yes, I saw her interview on GBTV the other evening -- the best interview I have seen her give. She was more herself than I have seen her before.
I'd be tempted to vote for her if she had a chance of winning.
Edited on December 8, 2011 at 10:06pmMar '11
Re: I Like Newt!
I have an incomplete thought... help me out:
Newt is a big idea guy with an answer for every problem. He also has serious character flaws that make him an easy target. BUT if Obama goes hard after Newt's flaws it will create the perception that he is avoiding a discussion of substance. On the other hand, going toe to toe with Newt is a sure loser for Obama.
Contrast with Romney vs Obama.
In other words, using sports terminology, does Newt create a matchup problem for Obama?
Apr '11
Re: I Like Newt!
On balance, Gingrich is better than Romney. At least Newt is a conservative. Barely.
Jun '10
Re: I Like Newt!
If Newt has actually cheated on Callista since his religious conversion (March 2009,) then I think that's an important factor to look at. If not, then I give Newt a chance to prove that he's a new man, an improved man...in that respect anyway.