"I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
National Journal reports on a focus group that Democratic pollster Peter Hart ran in Colorado last night. He spoke to a dozen ticket-splitting voters in Colorado -- people who are open to voting for both Democrats and Republicans.
These are the people being battled for and I'd be lying if the write-up of this focus group didn't remind me a bit of how Jonah Goldberg says undecided voters aren't the brightest bulbs out there. Still, it's interesting:
After being shown footage of a campaign speech by Obama, the prevailing sentiment was that the president was a slick salesman, but his words didn't match his actions.
"I got duped. I fell under his spell. What he's done with the car industry is the only real success," said Patrick Allen, a 27-year-old health care consultant, who voted for Obama in 2008. "I feel like I was somewhat lied to."
"He came in as a wild card... I haven't seen him do anything extraordinary," said Kelly Capra, 49, a United Airlines customer service representative who said she'd vote for him if he "could do something huge, like really lower the price of gas."
Everyone said they'd prefer to hang out with Barack Obama than Mitt Romney, that they didn't really have a good read on Romney, and that they were worried the economy might head into a free fall.
Shown some of Romney's campaign speeches, participants commented that he was short on specifics and sounded like a politician.
"I identify with Romney's background, but Obama still has a lot of good ideas out there that haven't quite comes to pass, and I don't know what Romney has out there," said Stephanie Rydalch, 38, a state care provider, leaning towards supporting Romney.
National Journal says the reactions explain why Obama's going hard against Romney: it's his only path to victory. If he can make their first impression of Romney a negative one, fewer will flee from him.
In related news, Obama has lost the support of a significant percentage of black voters in North Carolina. Hmmm.
Still, I wonder if Romney doesn't need to be a bit more aggressive in defining himself to these undecided voters.
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Jun '10
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
I think Romney's message (or at least part of it) should be: "Economic growth depends on investment, and investment depends on stability. I'll provide that stability. Stability is something that President Obama and his party doesn't seem to understand, or even like. I do."
Apr '11
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
Is this really the group to whom we are compelled to entrust the future of the nation, the dim bulbs who get to the head of the line at McDonalds and only then read the menu on the wall as if it's new and unknown? The guy in line at the ice cream parlour who, for the fifth time asks, 'Tell me again, what't the difference between French Vanilla and Rocky Road?'
If the healthcare consultant thinks the bailout of the auto industry has been a success I'd suggest he hasn't 'looked under the hood' - to coin a phrase. And the UA employee who - despite all that's been written on the subject of energy supply and demand - still thinks the President controls the price of gasoline probably explains why the airlines are in such abysmal shape.
No, I'm fairly confident that come election day, and being unable to decide whether or not to take an umbrella in case it rains, they'll just stay home and pull a blanket over their heads hoping someone else makes the decision for them.
Apr '12
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
To be fair Molly, undecided voters probably tend to have little exposure to the political dialog outside the MSM, what could they possibly know?
Dec '11
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
Nothing makes me feel so out-of-step with my fellow citizens as when they say they would prefer to hang out with Obama over whoever . . . I would have to be paid highly to endure hanging out with him. He's ignorant, arrogant, dishonest, narcissistic, and hasn't had a new thought in 20 years. I have the feeling that there is no public figure less interested in my thoughts than he, and I certainly have no interest in hearing about composite girlfriends.
What am I missing here?
Mar '11
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
This is very similar to what Carville and Greensburg found in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Swing voters there just were not buying Obama's economic message.
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
This is mostly a blessing, too. When I think of all the Twitter-based nonsense that inside-the-beltway hacks (I live inside the beltway ...) focus on each and every day of the campaign, thank God that they're not focused on it.
But it also means that people need to be creative about how to reach those voters and remember that 99% of what gets put out there will be missed.
Dec '10
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
Humbug, I say!
The "independent" voter and the "undecided" voter are often times so woefully uninformed and naive that it makes me fear for the future of our republic.
If people can't take the time to at least have a basic understanding of the issues then they shouldn't vote. I would be quite happy if there was some sort of basic test that had to be passed before being allowed to vote.
Mar '11
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
One good place to start would be to purge the voting rolls of those who are no longer living, or resident.
I live in Maryland. My wife (a registered democrat) legally changed her name 20 years ago. She still gets two ballots, and while she has complained about it, the State refuses to remove a Democrat from the voting rolls.
We have a neighbor who gets no less than 11 absentee ballots. 2 for the adults in the household. The rest are for kids who have moved out, a deceased child, and previous owners going back 30 years.
So let's start here. Then we can audit places like Madison, WS, and Multnomah County, Oregon and King County, WA - places with 80-110% turnouts, where they just keep recounting until the liberal wins.
May '12
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
It is a ridiculous small sample size, but lends support to two themes that come up occasionally on Ricochet:
1. "What he's done with the car industry is the only real success." Yikes! The problem is as much us voters as it is our politicians. This sounds like someone solely informed by MSM and not interested in doing any reading or research how big/bad the challenges are we face. We complain about all the scoundrels in DC, but we keep re-electing said scoundrels.
2. "I don't know what Romney has out there". Sad to admit, but I am not sure I do either other than he isn't Barack Obama. I read the 59 point plan to slow the growth of government. I think Gov. Romney believes in the private sector, but what rules, regulations, departments specifically is he going to eliminate to get out of our way? I am scared that if Gov. Romney doesn't start giving specific, hard conservative reasons to vote For him it will be easy for the uninformed to vote Obama right back in.
Apr '11
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
Does Peggy Noonan, Christopher Buckley, and Colin Powell fall into this group of the duped?
Edited on June 13, 2012 at 5:34pmFeb '11
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.:
For those who think the car bailout was a "real success" and those who think that lowering the price of gas (Is that a presidential power, like lowering the level of the oceans?) is "something huge," there may not be a sensible game plan.
May '12
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
Well, it may be that these attributes describe a large chunk of the "undecided voters" out there as well. These are personality traits that are quite common, and idolized, in today's society.
I don't despair as much as some here at the thought of these "undecided voters". Voters, like the rest of society, follow a normal distribution. These people have always been here, and they can be found in both political camps in large numbers (like a lot of Santorum voters who were willing to vote for a big government republican simply because they "liked him" ). Ultimately, these people don't determine the direction of political trends. Those tend to be dragged around by the tails of the distribution (and I'm not so sure that "we" are on the winning side yet).
Apr '11
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
BrentB67: 2.
"I don't know what Romney has out there". Sad to admit, but I am not sure I do either other than he isn't Barack Obama. I read the 59 point plan to slow the growth of government. I think Gov. Romney believes in the private sector, but what rules, regulations, departments specifically is he going to eliminate to get out of our way? I am scared that if Gov. Romney doesn't start giving specific, hard conservative reasons to vote For him it will be easy for the uninformed to vote Obama right back in. · 44 minutes ago
In the Carville-Greenberg focus group, Romney was hurt very badly by being associated with the Paul Ryan budget plan. I am terrified of Romney getting too specific. The Ryan plan is extremely unpopular with working-class whites, and the less he says about it, the better.
May '10
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
Raise the voting age to 50.
May '10
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
That Ryan's plan is "extremely unpopular with working-class whites" is a problem, no? If nothing changes there, then even if Obama fails to achieve a second term, we are still in big trouble that will make the Eurozone mess pale in comparison...
May '12
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
I guess I am a 'working class white' person and I don't support the Ryan plan, but only because he doesn't go far enough fast enough to balance the budget through cuts.
If the undecided voters don't like the idea of a real discussion on balancing the budget then we are doomed.
Apr '11
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
One of the difficulties with this line is that Romney's plan is pretty radical. It features the biggest cuts in Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, and other entitlements since the programs began (excepting Bush 41's reversal of Reagan's Medicare expansions).
The rationalization of agencies and departments isn't without disruption, either. If he advocates removing second home mortgage deductions, which I think likely, those would be big. The healthcare portability reforms are interesting. The new trade agreements (the Reagan economic zone) would accelerate creative destruction. The biggest anti-labor reforms in America's history won't be passed without conflict, and conflict means turbulence.
Romney's economy would be more stable than Obama's, but it's tough enough to explain why that he focuses more on the problem of the debt. Plus, the debt is a much bigger problem.
Mar '11
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
Sounds like a great plan to keep those cheap little whippersnappers from from cutting our social security!
Mar '11
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
James Of England
Plus, the debt is a much bigger problem. · 20 minutes ago
The debt is only the symptom. The underlying disease is the notion of entitlement that led to the debt.
Can Romney successfully cure the disease by addressing the symptoms? What gets him elected? And what gets him a mandate to make the necessary changes?
Apr '11
Re: "I Got Duped. I Fell Under His Spell."
iWc
James Of England
Plus, the debt is a much bigger problem. · 20 minutes ago
The debt is only the symptom. The underlying disease is the notion of entitlement that led to the debt.
Can Romney successfully cure the disease by addressing the symptoms? What gets him elected? And what gets him a mandate to make the necessary changes? · 11 minutes ago
People feel entitled to what they have. Mitt won't prevent people from feeling entitled to retire on social security, but he can change people's expectations from getting social security at 62 to getting it a little later, and can reduce the expected payouts in real terms for wealthier Americans. Likewise, the Medicare and Medicaid reforms are designed to avoid removing benefits that people are relying on too heavily, but adjusting them for people with enough time to shift their conceptions.
Mitt won't take us to pre-FDR levels of entitlement, but he'll reduce expectations of the state to sustainable levels. To use a driving over a cliff analogy, stopping short of the cliff is more than enough for a term or two. Driving home again is something to worry about later.