I Don't Know
Claire Berlinski, Ed. ·
Sep 12, 2011 at 5:37am
This morning, before Elizabeth left to catch her plane, she and I were discussing the phenomenon of punditry. We were noting that no one makes a career as a pundit--or any kind of expert--by saying, "I haven't the first clue what's going to happen."
So I'm reading this column by Walter Russell Mead. With all due respect, Professor, that's exactly what you're saying, isn't it?
I sure don't know. Just too many variables.
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Dec '10
Re: I Don't Know
I've wondered at times: if politicians are parasites, then what does that make those who make their living following the politicians? Kind of makes me glad it's just a hobby for me.
Oct '10
Re: I Don't Know
Listening to pundits is like listening to meteorologists. They have predictions and opinions by the boatload, but nowhere do we get historical information about how accurate they were with their past predictions and opinions. That kind of information would really be helpful in evaluating whether the person is an expert...or a blowhard.
And in the case of weathermen, it would be helpful in deciding whether to pay attention to next weekend's forecast that they're giving us...THIS weekend. They have trouble enough getting tomorrow's forecast right. But that's a whole 'nother issue.
Mar '11
Re: I Don't Know
I love the idea of a rating system for past predictions. Probably unworkable, but it would be a wonderful way to show how we tend to be right a lot more than those on the left....
Sep '10
Re: I Don't Know
Since historians cannot agree on what has already happened, I find it difficult to take at face value anyone who claims insight into what is happening now let alone what may happen in the future. Pundits like all people are first and foremost self-interested and a good deal of what they write is affected by this. Determining what is and isn’t is difficult.
Jun '10
Re: I Don't Know
This is unfair, Claire, as you liken prediction to fortune telling. Having constructed more financial models than I care to remember, I can say in good conscience that predicting the future is a matter of extrapolating from the present based on prudent assumptions about the future and the certain knowledge that you will never be right.
No one ever paid me to shrug, but no one ever paid me to pontificate either. What I was paid to do was construct a model based on the best information available today, and then dial in changes to the assumptions on which that model is based. For example: I predict a market sell-off of four months based on current absorption rates. The question to answer invariably becomes, What if sell-off takes eight or twelve months. Thanks to computers the answer is instantly available. Is the answer right? No. It is no more right than the original four month prediction (which if I were being technical I'd call a projection). So, what's the point if neither answer is right? Preparation! This is why novelists are invaluable to game theorists, they can more readily conceive the inconceivable.
Sep '10
Re: I Don't Know
You've voiced complaints about Mead before. Perhaps his approach to the issues is just off-putting to you.
Dec '10
Re: I Don't Know
I didn't read Claire as complaining about Mead and, in fact, I thought she was agreeing with him!