Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
Good piece by Bret Stephens on the realities of evacuation and the real consequences of such an order. Mayor Mike, previously thought of as Lord Farquat, now also evoking images of Chicken Little, is sure to claim credit for the absence of cataclysm in NYC, as though Irene becoming a tropical storm was unforseen (not).
The challenge for bureaucrats is there is no required calculation of the costs of lost time, diverted energy, and foregone income to the broad public from their dictats -- the ledger is one sided, and they only see the costs and benefits, to the government, bureaucrats, and politicians. No wonder they also think that "reconstruction" is good for the economy, and that governments create jobs. Somehow, "opportunity cost" has become a lost concept.
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May '11
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
I was in Hong Kong in the early 1980's when a cat 5 typhoon blew in. (Winds over 200 mph) Everyone knew it was coming. Everyone made plans. NO ONE was told to evacuate. (Where would they have gone?) The interesting thing, shops and restaurants stayed open until the winds hit 40 mph. I know. I was out shopping. Everyone had an eye on the wind speed. They knew when to go home and they stayed until that time. Without being told.
I was very impressed with Hong Kong and the people who lived there.
Sep '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
Rush Limbaugh mentioned you today in association with Michelle Bernard. Are you the most conservative woman in America? Somebody must be.
Jul '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
Unlike most storms, this one straddled the shore. If it hadn't slowed following landfall at Virginia Beach on its way past DC, or if it had come in as a weak Cat III, as predicted two days before, or if it had condensed more on encountering the Gulf Stream, as is common in these cases, or if it had just stopped at any point in route and hovered doing five miles an hour for a half day like Isabel, it could have been a lot worse.
As it was, around noon yesterday Dominion Power was reporting 1.2 million without power in Virginia and North Carolina. And, of course, there were the 25 dead in the United States.
After the media coverage of Katrina, what politician is going to take a chance?
Apr '11
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
Considering that every reporter and their mother was on Storm Watch 24/7 for this one, what are government officials to do. The News does not tolerate inaction even when waiting and seeing might be the right call. They want something to cover and if no one is moving they have no story and if there is no story they have to fabricate one.
Oct '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
I don't get it.
When something bad happens that we "should" have seen coming (9/11, Katrina's aftermath, a traffic accident at a known dangerous intersection that doesn't yet have a stoplight, etc.), we're all up in arms saying "how could this happen??!! Why did it have to take a tragedy for us to act?? Aren't we smart enough to proactively avoid such preventable carnage??"
Then, when we take reasonable, rational steps to prevent likely (or even just possible) weather-related calamities, and the weather doesn't cooperate (because Mother Nature decides not to kill 50 thousand people and flood 50 million...gee, how inconsiderate of Her, considering all the preparations we made...), and it turns out we probably didn't need to take those steps (thank God, right?...), we pass up no opportunity to ridicule others for being Chicken Littles (as though we should somehow know in advance how the future will unfold).
Good God, people, that kind of thinking is so boneheaded you'd think we were fricking Liberals here.
If y'all were so smart about the future, you'd be winning the lottery every week.
Nov '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
So, did the government represent the people here, or not?
Suppose it did. Suppose the government has been responsive to public will as refracted via the media.
Might it not therefore have also been the people, and not merely the bureaucrats, who failed to weigh, or who weighed irrationally, the opportunity cost of taking precautionary measures?
(LIke others here, I'm not yet convinced the people did fail to weigh, or did weigh irrationally, the opportunity costs involved, as they were very hard to weigh.)
Aug '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
Sisyphus: Unlike most storms, this one straddled the shore. If it hadn't slowed following landfall at Virginia Beach on its way past DC, or if it had come in as a weak Cat III, as predicted two days before, or if it had condensed more on encountering the Gulf Stream, as is common in these cases, or if it had just stopped at any point in route and hovered doing five miles an hour for a half day like Isabel, it could have been a lot worse.
As it was, around noon yesterday Dominion Power was reporting 1.2 million without power in Virginia and North Carolina. And, of course, there were the 25 dead in the United States.
Exactly.
All disaster plans need rehearsals anyway and the 'the public' partakes in very few of them. Think of it that way if you are unable to grasp that since it takes days to evacuate millions - evacuation decisions have to occur in the absence of perfect knowledge. In the worst case you have merely practiced your plans, in the best those millions are removed from harm's way.
Aug '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
If bureaucrats merely wake up one day and in the absence of any threat order the evacuation of millions - I would agree with you.
Eh, not the case here.
No, here we get the hyperbole available only to those with 'perfect' 20/20 hindsight.
"Hubris..." I like the title, by the way - very over the top. Boy you should did benefit because of the luck of the draw; you know the beach straddling, hurricane weakening behavior that no one has control over - well maybe you do, perhaps that is where the "seeing the unseen" portion of your title comes from.
Nope, you attribute the decisions to something called Lord Farquatism because that is the only possible answer. Thanks.
You wouldn't happen to know which stocks to short on Monday, would you?
Jun '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
Pilli: Everyone had an eye on the wind speed. They knew when to go home and they stayed until that time. Without being told.
I was very impressed with Hong Kong and the people who lived there. · Aug 29 at 7:40pm
I'm sorry, but this made me laugh out loud.
Everyone had an "eye" on the wind speed? Who are these amazing, prescient people? Keeping an "eye" on the wind speed and thus assuring human safety and sparing property damage -- wow. Can we encourage them all to go into the field of meterology and teach the scienteists how it's done?
Jun '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
How many of you "Chicken Littles" have life insurance policies on your spouses? Or homeowner's insurance? When your spouse survives for another year do you view that annual premium you paid as an 'opportunity cost?"
May '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
Thankfully, it's just Bloomberg. So people have learned to reflexively ignore him, possibly with a rude gesture.
Much like the citizens of Hong Kong, they could see what was coming, and it wasn't scary. It was predicted to be a Category 1 at worst, two days in advance. Because it was going to hit much farther south, thus (as always) dissipating much of its energy.
That, of course, is New York City, center of media and Only Place in the World That Really Matters, so the coverage reflected that. North Carolina got hit with a serious storm, largely ignored in the press.
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
I couldn't stop thinking about the way the shutdown of the subway affected shopowners. There was nothing to do in Manhattan and Brooklyn on Saturday and Sunday. Nobody could get employees to their shops. This even though the vast, vast, vast majority of these places were safe for shopping and the like.
I went on many walks this past weekend and people who were open kept commenting on how the only reason they were able to was because they lived nearby and weren't reliant on subways.
Should low-lying folks been told about the need to evacuate? Sure. The shutdown of all the means people get around town 12 hours before a storm? It didn't even make sense for hurricane preparation efforts.
Oct '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
Right. And we all know how weather predictions are always spot-on, don't we?
Irene herself was "predicted" to track the southern edge of Puerto Rico. She instead bisected the island and wreaked havoc in San Juan (among other places).
Gloria in 1985 was "predicted" to hit Cape Cod (from where I had to evacuate). It instead tracked through central New Hampshire (within 10 miles of my home, to where I had evacuated).
Need I continue??
Feb '11
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
dittoheadadt
Right. And we all know how weather predictions are always spot-on, don't we?
Irene herself was "predicted" to track the southern edge of Puerto Rico. She instead bisected the island and wreaked havoc in San Juan (among other places).
Gloria in 1985 was "predicted" to hit Cape Cod (from where I had to evacuate). It instead tracked through central New Hampshire (within 10 miles of my home, to where I had evacuated).
Need I continue?? · Aug 30 at 6:15am
You're obviously right about this; weather is unpredictable and can be deadly; we should take it seriously and take adequate precautions. And yet the coverage can become hyperventilation and ubiquitous panic, can't it? And yet mandatory evacuation and shutdown of normal services can be overreach, right?
Aug '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
Mollie, (re: subway) I understand that there was concern regarding potential flooding of underground power systems that the city decided to turn off certain power systems rather than have them short out if it did flood. The difference is a power outage measured in hours to day vs days to weeks. Additionally, it seems that shutting down a subway system is a pretty complex task I am surprised it only took 12 hours. (Posted via mobile browser - where is the Ricochet app already)
Aug '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
Greg Pollowitz over at NRO Media Blog points out that Nate Silver over at Five Thirty Eight wonks the bejesus out of the whole discussion here.
Silver's bottom line. Irene was 10th in media coverage and fatalities and 8th in economic damage at a projected $14B (Katrina was 1st at 93.7B).
Essentially Irene did Cat-3 level damage as a Cat-1 level hurricane.
Quoting Silver:
It wasn’t the worst-case scenario – either for Irene in particular or for hurricanes hitting New York in general. But I don’t see how you dismiss it as hype. If, as Mr. Kurtz says, “the prophets of doom were wrong,” I’m not looking forward to seeing what happens when they’re right.
Forty dead and fourteen billion in losses, by any measure, is simply devastating.
Edited on Aug 30, 2011 at 9:43amMay '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
None of whom were in New York City. Which is the point at tissue.
Aug '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
Congratulations - what would your call be 48 hours or more in advance. It took 2 days to evacuate Houston in advance of hurricane Rita and most of those folks had cars. (plus the population outside of Houston thins out rapidly once you get 20 miles from city center). How many people live in the five boroughs? How many people live within 70 miles of the coast along that portion of the US? (70 miles is the distance from Houston to the Gulf of Mexico).
If you want to complain about the media living out the lyrics to "Dirty Laundry", I am right there with you. Your 20/10 hindsight isn't impressing me.
Jun '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
We had streets turned into raging rivers, with whitewater rapids in my town --- only ten miles west of NYC. Dangerous trees uprooted, power lines down, telephone poles snapped in half, flooding like the town has never seen before. Frankly I was glad for the warnings. My husband had an hour and a half yesterday and an hour today tacked on to his commute because highways are still shut down.
If you can find a way to predict the exact impact a hurricaine will have and the route it will take, within a ten mile margin of error, then you are a genius.
This storm was devastating.
Oct '10
Re: Hubris, Bloomberg, and Seeing the Unseen
Ed G.
dittoheadadt
Right. And we all know how weather predictions are always spot-on, don't we?
Irene herself was "predicted" to track the southern edge of Puerto Rico. She instead bisected the island and wreaked havoc in San Juan (among other places).
Gloria in 1985 was "predicted" to hit Cape Cod (from where I had to evacuate). It instead tracked through central New Hampshire (within 10 miles of my home, to where I had evacuated).
You're obviously right about this; weather is unpredictable and can be deadly; we should take it seriously and take adequate precautions. And yet the coverage can become hyperventilation and ubiquitous panic, can't it? And yet mandatory evacuation and shutdown of normal services can be overreach, right?
Yes, for sure. I've despised Weather Channel hysteria for years. Irene was no different. My negative comments relate solely to Monday-morning quarterbacks.
Overreach? Yes, but only known as such in hindsight! Anyone can predict the outcome of yesterday's ballgame.