How to Close All the Bars in Egypt
Strategist and author Edward Luttwak of the Center for Strategic and International Studies is brilliant, provocative, and, although quite often wrong, always worth reading. In an interview with the Tablet, Luttwak offers his analysis of the Arab Spring:
The Tablet: There are two differing interpretations of the events of the Arab Spring. The dominant one is: “Here is this marvelous wave of popular revolutions where everyone uses Facebook and Twitter to spread democratic ideas.” The other is that “Rickety state structures held together by repressive police and state apparatus are now collapsing into tribal bloodshed.”
Luttwak: Well, any dictatorship creates an unnatural environment, analogous to that of taking peasants from the field and putting them in an army, where they get uniforms and are drilled and disciplined. Dictatorships attempt to turn entire populations into well-drilled regiments. The North Korean regime takes it to the logical extreme of actually having the entire population drilled in regiments. The Ben Ali and Mubarak dictatorships were attempting to regiment their populations by having state structures imposed on them. Both of them, for example, were able to create loyal police forces.
Once the regiment dissolves, then the people are released and they revert to their natural order. They stop wearing uniforms, they put on the clothes they want, and they manifest the proclivities that they have. A few Egyptians are Westernized, hence they have exited Islam whatever their personal beliefs may be. But otherwise, there is no room for civilization in Egypt other than Islam, and the number of extremists that you need to make life impossible for the average Westernized or slightly Westernized Egyptian who wants to have a beer, for example, is very small. The number you need to close all the bars in Egypt is maybe 15 percent of the population.
(H/t Prof. Meir Kohn of Dartmouth.)
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Re: How to Close All the Bars in Egypt
Luttwak is, I fear, right this time. The Arab world is entering an Islamist period. It will be rescued from this delusion only by another deeply unpleasant round of experience. Arab nationalism has failed. When Islamic revivalism is seen to have failed as well, other possibilities will present themselves.
Jun '10
Re: How to Close All the Bars in Egypt
In the long run this is very good. In the short run it's time to stock up on ammunition.
Re: How to Close All the Bars in Egypt
Cas Balicki
In the long run this is very good. In the short run it's time to stock up on ammunition. · Sep 6 at 5:59pm
Yes, their learning lessons the hard way may well be hard on us.
Feb '11
Re: How to Close All the Bars in Egypt
Wow! Thanks for linking to this great interview. Luttwak makes some startling points, like Iran unintentionally creating the first post-Islamic society.
Apr '11
Re: How to Close All the Bars in Egypt
It seems certain Luttwak is right about the 15%. What's the consensus, that the American Revolution was supported by only 1/4 to 1/3 of the population? The Bolsheviks and Nazis both took over from a minority position (although I seem to remember the Nazis had a plurality, 38% or something.)
I semi-dispute Prof. Rahe's point:
I think it is a question of "if" rather than "when," at least in the next 50-100 years. And I can't count on living past 140.
May '11
Re: How to Close All the Bars in Egypt
I can't resist.
Fewer bars in fewer places.