How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
There's a fascinating article in today's New York Times--yes, they still do it sometimes--about the global competition for offshore energy resources. The last paragraphs caught my imagination:
Perhaps the least dangerous arena of competition lies in the frigid north, partly because experts believe that many of the Arctic’s mineral deposits lie within one or another of the 200-mile exclusive economic zones of the countries that ring the ocean. But even countries with no Arctic coastline, like China and South Korea, are sending icebreakers there to explore weather patterns and fish migration.
Ironically, the biggest bone of contention there is between two stalwart allies, the United States and Canada. Melting ice has opened up the fabled Northwest Passage, which runs through an archipelago of islands in northern Canada. The United States views the passage as an international waterway, giving American ships unlimited access. The Canadian government insists it is an inland waterway, meaning that foreign ships can use it only with Ottawa’s approval.
The thing is, we don't really know yet how much energy is up there (or down there, if we gird ourselves against our pernicious hemispherism). It may hold as much as a fifth of the world's oil and gas resources. But what if it's more than that? What would the coming century look like if that's the next Persian Gulf?
By the way, wouldn't it be a superb irony if the thawing of the Northwest Passage--whatever the cause--turns out to be great for humanity?
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Oct '10
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
Super. The last century was endless war in Europe. This next century will see us fighting off the ravaging Canadian hordes who use their oil money to fuel their desire for global conquest. The whole "nice" thing was just to lull us into a false sense of security while they bided their time looking for more oil to fund their war machine.
Thanks for the warning, Claire. You're a modern day digital version of Paul Revere.
Seriously though, yes, this would be delicious irony and if the worst case scenario means we have a more wealthy Canada and less money in the hands of bad actors in the Middle East so much the better.Thanks for posting this.
Edited on Nov 18, 2011 at 6:26amAug '11
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
Claire Berlinski, Ed.:
By the way, wouldn't it be a superb irony if the thawing of the Northwest Passage--whatever the cause--turns out to be great for humanity? ·
I have also seen it convincingly argued (by Freeman Dyson?) that global warming would be good for humanity, in the form of longer growing seasons in the north, plants bolstered by increased CO2, etc. But that would assume that the Greenists of the world are interested in allowing humanity to prosper.
Anyway, I think all we need to do is look at the President's balking on the Keystone XL pipeline. No prosperity for you!
Jul '10
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
Publius
Seriously though, yes, this would be delicious irony and if the worst case scenario means we have a more wealthy Canada and less money in the hands of bad actors in the Middle East so much the better.Thanks for posting this. · Nov 18 at 6:26am
Edited on Nov 18 at 06:26 am
Canada better get busy with that border fence before They have a massive illegal alien population. Americans doing the jobs Canadians won't do.
Oct '10
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
I have been in training to be the chief cynic for Ricochet. For over 50 years I have been observing America's decline.
My prediction... this will mean nothing to America. We have voted to disregard our interests in all accounts.
Jun '10
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
Keep in mind, Russia has their sights on the Arctic. Whenever they get involved, everything gets messy.
Nov '10
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
Interesting also that Canada has recently awarded the 33 billion in contracts to rebuild the Canadian Navy. They've also changed the name back to Royal Canadian Navy, from Maritime Command.
Dec '10
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
Publius: Super. The last century was endless war in Europe. This next century will see us fighting off the ravaging Canadian hordes who use their oil money to fuel their desire for global conquest. . · Nov 18 at 6:26am
Edited on Nov 18 at 06:26 am
Jimmy Carter
Publius
Edited on Nov 18 at 06:26 am
Canada better get busy with that border fence before They have a massive illegal alien population. Americans doing the jobs Canadians won't do. · Nov 18 at 7:05am
If the Canadians are to have hordes with which to ravage, they will need to let many aliens in. There are not that many of them now.
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
That's an axiom of history, yes.
Dec '10
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
That's an axiom of history, yes. · Nov 18 at 8:51am
Russians are uniquely qualified to work in the Arctic. The high alcohol content they maintain in there blood keeps them going where others would freeze.
Oct '10
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
That's an axiom of history, yes. · Nov 18 at 8:51am
It's also why the United States needs to make sure the United States Navy is properly funded. If you want to be a truly global superpower who can defend your economic interests, you need a fully functioning blue water navy. China understands this which is why they are so busy building their own.
Edited on Nov 18, 2011 at 9:16amAug '10
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
First this, then THIS:
"...up there (or down there, if we gird ourselves against our pernicious hemispherism)..."
Why do Northern-Hemisphere people think Southern-Hemisphere people hold their maps with the Equator at the bottom? They don't do that! (True, I've seen Brazilians reading their bus tickets upside-down. But that's different.)
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
"...up there (or down there, if we gird ourselves against our pernicious hemispherism)..."
Why do Northern-Hemisphere people think Southern-Hemisphere people hold their maps with the Equator at the bottom? They don't do that! (True, I've seen Brazilians reading their bus tickets upside-down. But that's different.) · Nov 18 at 9:20am
Honestly, John H., I'd never before given a thought to what Southern-Hemisphere people do. That was just a fantasy I made up for laughs. (I had no idea anyone, ever, had imagined someone might seriously think that.)
Aug '10
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Honestly, John H., I'd never before given a thought to what Southern-Hemisphere people do. That was just a fantasy I made up for laughs. (I had no idea anyone, ever, had imagined someone might seriously think that.)
Sorry if I sounded impassioned; I wasn't really. Had I never seen that link, I'd probably have let this slip by uncommented. But 2 data points make a graph, so... . And quite a lot of folks - present company excepted! - do have funny ideas about the Southern Hemisphere. They seem disappointed when I say I've NEVER watched how the water swirls in the toilet. They seem unconvinced when I hasten to add the Southern Hemisphere does have toilets.
Dec '10
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
John H.
They seem disappointed when I say I've NEVER watched how the water swirls in the toilet. They seem unconvinced when I hasten to add the Southern Hemisphere does have toilets.
Years ago, when I was still in school, we had an exchange student from Australia come over to help teach underground surveying, and my surveying class constantly asked him about this, until he finally called home and asked his roommate to flush the toilet and report back. They were the same as ours!
We were all devastated at the news, and vowed to find the cause of this outrage.
Turns out, they don't swirl backwards like physics suggests they should, because the little water jet nozzles are molded into the bowls in such a way to cause the water to swirl in one specific direction (I'm not going to flush my toilet to check which way).
That force vectoring will overcome the much weaker Coriolis effect and cause the water to swirl the same way, regardless of which hemisphere the toilet is anchored in.
We were crushed. When I told my physics TA, he looked like I'd just told him I'd shot Santa.
Mar '11
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
Gahh!!!
Do you know how many curves you can get to fit any two data points?
All of them!
(Sorry...I had to deal with Marketing and Accounting today. The Eloi and the Morlocks.)
Jan '11
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
Also keep in mind there is a small nation with a large potential stake in the arctic (points at Iceland on the map). One of the reasons why the EU is pretty excited about Iceland joining (which will probably not happen) is because they want to get their mitts on the arctic. I am not sure that it is in the interest of the US or Canada to get the EU in there - the Russians are troublesome enough.
Apr '11
Re: How Much Will the World Change If It Turns Out All the Oil's in the Arctic?
And here I thought the Pernicious Hemispherism was the left-brain analytical vs. right brain creative battle.
I'm pretty sure there was a Far Side cartoon about that somewhere.....