How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
Hoover Institution Fellow Stephen Haber and University of Washington Professor Victor Menaldo have just released a working paper called "Rainfall, Human Capital, and Democracy" in which they demonstrate a pretty remarkable "systemic, non-linear relationship between rainfall levels and regime types in the post-World War II world." Here's an excerpt:
Briefly stated, the world’s liberal democracies are situated in climate zones where the level of rainfall permitted the advent of an agricultural system based on grains and legumes, which are characterized both by a high degree of storability and modest economies of scale in production. Conversely, high storability and small minimum efficient scales of production do not characterize the crops that can be grown in other climate zones. In deserts, it is not possible to grow anything, except under special circumstances that dramatically raise the scale of production—a subject to which we shall return at some length. It is, of course, possible to grow food in the tropics—but what can be grown either has very low degrees of storability (e.g. tree crops, such as bananas) or is characterized by extremely large scale economies in production (e.g. sugar cane). Those specific features of grains and legumes created conditions that favored societies composed of family farmers, as opposed to societies composed of nomadic Bedouins or coerced plantation workers. High storability and small minimum efficient scales of production generated surpluses that could not be arrogated by political elites bent on political centralization. This structure of agricultural production therefore created incentives for economic specialization, trade, and inter-generational investments in human capital.
Over the course of long periods of time those outcomes of an agricultural system
based on storable crops with modest scale economies in production gave rise to societies
characterized by high levels and broad distributions of human capital. These characteristics are conducive to democratic consolidation because democracies tend to flourish when citizens are evenly matched in terms of education, political sophistication, and social standing. When they are not, “free and fair elections” can lead to a tyranny of the majority—a point first made by Aristotle, but echoed by generations of scholars since. ...[W]hen democracy arises in a social structure characterized by high levels and broad distributions of human capital, citizens are better able to monitor and discipline politicians, holding them accountable and incentivizing them to provide public goods that strengthen democracy.
Examining rainfall, Haber and Menaldo discovered that among regions with little rainfall (fewer than 550mm or 21.5 inches of rain annually) only two democracies exist: Cyprus and Israel. That same rainfall band also includes 14 "persistent autocracies," which account for 44% of the world's autocracies.
In regions with moderate rainfall (550mm - 1300 mm or 21.5in - 51in), the authors found 18 stable democracies and only seven persistent autocracies. Haber and Menaldo note that "this rainfall band accounts for 45 percent of all countries, but 69 percent of all stable democracies, and only 21 percent of all persistent autocracies."
Finally, in regions with heavy rainfall (over 1300 mm or 51in), there are six stable democracies and 11 persistent autocracies. Additionally, these extremely wet regions include regimes that can neither be classified as democracies nor autocracies.
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Jul '10
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
Diane, I heard Haber discuss this the other night on the (excellent) John Batchelor Show. His central point was that where there is sufficient rainfall to sustain family farms, such as in New England, adjoining farmers find social and political ways to interact with each other and resolve disputes. This leads to democratic structures.
In arid regions such as Egypt, where farmers are dependent upon rivers and irrigation, access to water can be controlled by tribal leaders and despots, which is, according to Haber, why democracy never took hold in the Arab world.
I would, of course, add Islam as a reason why democracy never took hold in the Middle East, but Haber's thesis is, nevertheless, interesting.
Edited on Apr 8, 2011 at 1:00pmAug '10
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
The problem with these studies is there ain't that many countries and there are lots of variables, many of which are highly correlated with each other. For instance, history of English colonization, speaking English, and common law jurisprudence are all highly correlated. This makes it almost impossible to say what actually helps and what is just a spurious correlate.
Feb '11
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
I don't know, the correlation doesn't seem that strong between rainfall and democracy using the figures you've cited, which suggests much else is going on.
The other thing to note is that rainfall within many countries is highly variable. How was that treated if at all?
Jan '11
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
This could be one of those "75% of all criminals eat white bread therefore white bread increases illegal activity" studies.
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
Hang On:
The other thing to note is that rainfall within many countries is highly variable. How was that treated if at all? · Apr 8 at 1:28pm
This is their explanation on their methods for determining rainfall:
Feb '11
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
Diane Ellis, Ed.
Hang On:
The other thing to note is that rainfall within many countries is highly variable. How was that treated if at all? · Apr 8 at 1:28pm
This is their explanation on their methods for determining rainfall:
Apr 8 at 1:35pm
Thanks for explanation.
May '10
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
This is the kind of empirical work that I enjoy reading.
May '10
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
Reasonable hypothesis, provided that one considers the exceptions (e.g., Israel) where the human capital is able to overcome the agri-geological disadvantages given a highly cohesive culture.
Feb '11
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
Emigrates from Britain circa 1890-1900 to Canada, Australia, and other Dominions, plus the United States, took with them the idea of small farms with surplus production. At that time there was always a market in Britain, around which their export-oriented grain production was organized.
The British market tied the emigrants to “home” in Britain, and contributed much to the wealth of Britain, which could specialize in industry, while ships - floating silos - sailed to British ports bringing grain to feed British labor.
This is the precursor to the “systemic non-linear relationship between rainfall levels and regime types in the Post-World War II world”. So path dependency also played a part. With Imperial Britain holding much of the world’s agricultural land with the right rainfall distribution, combining with British culture norms to encouraging the establishment of democratic self-government.
Argentina and Russia, which had the right rainfall patterns, also shipped grain to Britain before World War I. Argentina continued to do so after World War II. But Argentina and Russia did not, and have not yet, established stable democratic societies.
Dec '10
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
It shall be, that if you obey My commandments that I command you this day to love the Lord your God and serve Him with all Your heart and with all your soul, then will I send the rain for your land in its season, the early [autumn] rain and the late [spring] rain, and you will gather in your grain, your wine, and your oil. And I will provide grass in your field for your cattle, and you shall eat and be sated. Be careful that your heart be not tempted and you turn away to serve other gods and bow to them. For then God will be furious with you and will block the heavens and there will be no rain and the land will not yield its produce, and you will perish quickly from the good land that God gives you.
- Deuteronomy 11:13-17
Dec '10
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
Israel imported democracy along with its population, and used technology to force the surrounding terrain to comply with democracy's demands. The people of the region who didn't have the advantage of learning modern ways in a diaspora never developed the tools and the imperative for democracy.
Dec '10
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
Describing Israel’s political status in terms of climate is as absurd as asserting land located 31 N and 35 E is the place of the first Jewish state, beginning in 1948.
The concept of the Anglosphere provides the most highly predictive correlation with stable political institutions.
The strongest correlation with the Anglosphere is shared English ancestry; the weakest, English as the preferred language among ancient tribes within a country without English ancestry.
The Haber/Menaldo thesis assumes all culture is low, transmitted through the belly. High culture emerges from the mind.
Nice to think that rain falling from Gaia’s sky started the Anglosphere miracle. More to the truth, the 13th century Magna Carta, inspired by an understanding of Greece and Rome, followed by bluewater navigation were considerably more the impetus of this small island’s political semaphore shining the beacon of liberty for the world.
To the detriment of all, it is our historic first Islamic apostate president’s goal to disrupt Western civilization and spread its wealth, cultural and material, haphazardly to the third-world, which has no experience of it and knows not how to use it.
Jan '11
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
This is cause without an impactful effect.
Democracy is inherent in isolated societies, even if they had a chief or some head person. The decision making process had the chief meeting with the citizenship to sell the decision in question. Consensus was gained before the decision was made.
Democracy in Greece was really only for citizens, a distinct minority of the adults. So they we're really democracies. The development of the Netherlands Republic or the Cromwellian experiment in Britain in the 17th century both failed, the Netherlands being subverted by the royals with Cromwell being over thrown by the same. In action governing was still was restricted to owners of land or businesses.
The American experiment started with the initial influx of Europeans, 6 months distant from the central government, whose small holdings, shared risk, and need for the best talent to rise for everyone's survival set the foundation for democratic methods of governance.
The republic formed with our constitution was the result of 175 years of independent rule up through the legislatures of the original colonies.
More than rainfall, it is isolation from a strong central government that seems to have driven early democracy formulation.
Dec '10
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
Glad to see a social scientist urging caution about jumping to conclusions. Scientists should be highly skeptical and critical.
There is a problem with the analysis of such studies by pop-sci and mass media. A few statistical studies do not necessarily translate into a well supported scientific conclusion. Practicing scientists should understand this and should say so when they publish.
However, pop-science writers and the general public often do not understand this. Consequently, they start jumping to conclusions and repeating highly tentative and precariously supported hypotheses as if they were well established and solidly supported scientific conclusions when they are not.
This occurs most often in the social sciences where the data and evidence is largely statistical and there are almost uncountable variables involved. It can also occur in statistically based medical/nutritional research.
Apr '11
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
For those who enjoy this kind of history, I would recommend J.R. McNeill's "Mosquito Empires." He shows how different disease environments shaped Euro-American activity in the greater Caribbean between the seventeenth and twentieth centuries.
Dec '10
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
Thanks. I'll look into it.
Along similar lines, if you haven't already read it, is Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies.
And welcome to Ricochet.
Mar '11
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
"If it be true that the temper of the mind and the passions of the heart are extremely different in different climates, the laws ought to be in relation both to the variety of those passions and to the variety of those tempers."
- Montesquieu, Spirit of the Laws, Book 14. The whole of book 14 is worth reading on this relationship between the climate and the laws, and it seems that, as in so much, the social science data backs the empirical observations he arrived at unaided.
Fascinating study, Diane.
Dec '10
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
Modern liberal democracies are a very recent phenomena in human history, and were rare or nonexistent up until contemporary times. The conditions the authors of the study specify existed for a couple of millenia, at least, before liberal democracies were established in Europe.
Prior to WW I the only major liberal democracies on the planet were the US, Great Britain, and France. By the mid-summer of 1940 France was no longer one of them, and many of the minor ones established after WW I were gone. There were only two left by late 1940.
I admit I haven't read the entire study. However, it is difficult to reconcile these facts of history with the study's suggestion that rain and agricultural abundance are primary causes of both liberal democracy in the West and the lack of it in more arid climates.
Though sufficient rainfall was required for the creation and endurance of civilizations, I think the necessary conditions for and causes of the very recent widespread establishment of modern liberal democracies in the past century are much more complicated than average rainfall.
When Obama condescendingly dismisses American exceptionalism, he obviously has no idea what he is talking about.
Aug '10
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
I haven't read this but my understanding of it from review articles about the economics of development is that this relationship is more endogenous than you'd expect. That is, if you are mostly measuring disease environment at the present and GDP at the present you can't assume that the disease environment is the cause and the development is the effect. The reason is that men can reshape the disease environment, especially when men are prosperous.
To put it more simply, the thesis has it that societies without swamps get rich but it might also be that when societies get rich they drain their swamps. We have examples of this within the 20th century in the form of American mosquito eradication efforts, both in the South and in various Latin American protectorates (most notably Panama).
Edited on Apr 9, 2011 at 8:57pmJan '11
Re: How Much Rain Does a Stable Democracy Need?
Meh. I'm looking out the window, and if the paper doesn't say anything about how snow on the ground this time of year will make a stable and especially prosperous democracy, I'm not interested.