How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
Answer: you innovate. That, anyway, is the supposition of the prominent futurist Thomas Frey, who operates out of the Colorado-based DaVinci Institute. Speaking at a TED conference in Istanbul last week, Frey casually threw out (as an aside in a conversation about higher education) his belief that about two billion jobs (approximately half of the world's stock) would disappear by 2030 (he's referring to the gross loss of 2 billion jobs through creative destruction, not an economically devastating net loss of that amount.)
Of course, this isn't the sort of thing one can footnote in a conversation and expect to go unnoticed, so now Frey has posted a breakdown on his website of some of the industries that he thinks will be driving the change. He mentions five in particular as on the cusp of radical overhauls:
1. The energy industry
2. Automobile transporation (because of the rise of driverless cars)
3. Education (because of the promise of digital courses on the model of Apple's iTunesU)
4. Manufacturing (because of the advent of 3-D printing)
5. Various forms of physical labor that will be replaced by robots.
Frey's analysis is interesting and worth reading, though I think he succumbs to a typical weakness of publicity-hungry futurists (he's got to lock down those speaking fees, after all) by leading with a projection that's on the far end of plausibility.
He's probably most accurate about driverless cars, which are already being developed at a rapid pace in Silicon Valley and which could have profound implications for highway safety, traffic management and personal scheduling (two hours of commuting each day looks much different when that's time you can use to work in the car). I suspect he's pretty close to the mark with education too, which will cause chaos in a field that has traditionally been so insulated from affordable competition (just wait for the response from the teachers' unions).
I'm a little less persuaded about the virtues of 3-D printing, which seems equally innovative and inconvenient. Robotics is a field that perpetually progresses slower than its most ardent defenders imagine (the high-water mark thus far is the Roomba, for crying out loud), so I suspect it won't make gains quite on the scale that Frey imagines either.
Energy is the most interesting projection and the one with the greatest political implications. I'm more pessimistic than Frey precisely because the government has taken such an active role in the energy sector over the last few decades, which has inevitably led to the widespread misallocation of research capital. That's a fact that we conservatives too often ignore in our enthusiasm for mocking publicly-funded green energy boondoggles. We actually should be enthusiastic about the development of fuel sources that could outperform conventional resources like gasoline or coal. But that concept -- performance -- is the key. Any viable replacements would have to be affordable, efficient, convenient, and scalable. The federal fetish for subsidizing alternatives that don't meet this criteria only delays the day when we'll have such genuine breakthroughs come to market.
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Aug '11
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
My instant reaction is that he's not considering the number of jobs that will be created by the development of technology we haven't yet realized.Technological advancement doesn't necessarily mean that jobs will be lost. In fact, probably just the opposite. At the very least, the job market changes and adapts.
Jump back 20 years to 1992. Internet? What's that? Now how many jobs exist today because of the rise of the internet?
Edited on February 8, 2012 at 6:54pmRe: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
Drew,
Read his analysis and that is factored in. As I mentioned, he's not predicting an apocalypse. He's actually an enthusiast for this change. His point instead is that a huge swath of our current jobs are going to disappear, being replaced by positions that either don't exist or are lightly populated today.
DrewInWisconsin: My instant reaction is that he's not considering the number of jobs that will be created by the development of technology we haven't yet realized.
Jump back 20 years to 1992. Internet? What's that? Now how many jobs exist today because of the rise of the internet? · 1 minute ago
May '10
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
As one who spent his career in higher ed, I expect higher ed to be the first and most radical exemplar of that trend. It's already happening on a fairly large scal and the changes in traditional higher ed in the last few years will accelerate the pace. The only real obstacle at this point is acceptance. The "elites" still look down their aquiline noses at these alternatives. And that may always remain, much as family bloodline matters in upper European society. But at the business end of things, it will be "what can you do for me" that will count.
Jan '11
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
Troy Senik, Ed.
He's probably most accurate about driverless cars,
I think he's most accurate about education, Distance learning is also already occuring. And, with the push toward standardized education and measuring of learned results of the education, it will only be natural to have the brightest and most engaging teachers teach on subjects, digitize this instruction, and replay it for students at their homes. The costs of education drastically get reduced. Teacher will complain loudly. But the Leftist selling point will be in all the enegry costs and fuel savings-- not having to heat, cool, and light classrooms or operate buses.
There's no way around proctoring tests where students cannot have references so, from time-to-time, students will have to come into some type of classroom setting to take tests.
Jul '11
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
Whether his time lines are correct is one issue but I do not doubt the veracity of his suppositions. How exciting to live in interesting times.
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
Joe,
I agree with everything you say here. The only reason I suspect that transportation gets the jump on education is that there will be a rent-seeking resistance from the education community that will slow the process down.
LowcountryJoe
Troy Senik, Ed.
He's probably most accurate about driverless cars,
I think he's most accurate about education, Distance learning is also already occuring. And, with the push toward standardized education and measuring of learned results of the education, it will only be natural to have the brightest and most engaging teachers teach on subjects, digitize this instruction, and replay it for students at their homes. The costs of education drastically get reduced. Teacher will complain loudly. But the Leftist selling point will be in all the enegry costs and fuel savings-- not having to heat, cool, and light classrooms or operate buses.
There's no way around proctoring tests where students cannot have references so, from time-to-time, students will have to come into some type of classroom setting to take tests. · 8 minutes ago
Feb '11
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
If anything the energy industry should add jobs. New technology. New plays all around the world to use that new technology. Shale gas and oil here in North America, and predicted in England, continental Europe, and China.
Gas hydrates offshore Japan and in Alaska.
More workers directly in the energy industry and more worker taking advantage of a long term decline in the price of gasoline, diesel, natural gas, and electricity.
Aug '10
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
I think you underestimate the current growth in robotics, thanks to the development of low-cost robotics for hobbyists.
In the past, robotics was the domain of MIT engineering students.
Nowadays, thanks to products like Arduino microprocessors, it's cheaper and easier to get into robotics than it is to get into radio-controlled airplanes.
With so many young people getting into DIY robotics, the prospects for growth as they grow up become pretty huge.
Also, as the cost of 3D printing drops, its impact also grows.
It was only a couple of years ago that 3D printing existed only in an MIT lab.
Now, you can buy one for yourself for only $1099. That's less than half what my dad paid for my first Macintosh Classic.
There are also instructions online on how to build your own 3D printer.
The revolution will be home-made.
Jan '11
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
If John can tie a bow tie with one hand...
Aug '10
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
<devil's advocate mode = on>
On the other hand, does that necessarily mean that jobs will be "destroyed" by these technologies?
One could look at a 3D printer in the same way that one looks at a bread-making machine.
Are bakeries closing down because bread machines make it cheap and easy to bake bread at home? No, they aren't.
Or, think about color printers. I still sometimes send print jobs to a photo finisher or a print shop, because they can often print something cheaper than I can do with my ink jet printer.
With a 3D printer, it still isn't cost-effective to create your own plastic fork, for example. For that sort of low-value item, it's way cheaper to buy them from a Chinese factory.
<devil's advocate mode = off>
Edited on February 8, 2012 at 7:30pmAug '10
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
It's even possible, today, to build a 3D printer using a 3D printer.
Edited on February 8, 2012 at 7:46pmMay '10
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
All I want to know is if this future will finally come with the Senik 3000 JetPack we've all been promised?
Fuel range is expected to last longer than an average Richard Epstein answer on the Establishment Clause.
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
There are going to be some folks at DARPA very unhappy with me about the fact that this picture leaked.
EJHill
All I want to know is if this future will finally come with the Senik 3000 JetPack we've all been promised?
Fuel range is expected to last longer than an average Richard Epstein answer on the Establishment Clause. · 0 minutes ago
Aug '10
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
I doubt that jet packs will ever be mainstream, because they simply aren't practical.
5 Awesome Sci-Fi Inventions That Would Actually Suck
Nov '11
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
LowcountryJoe
There's no way around proctoring tests where students cannot have references so, from time-to-time, students will have to come into some type of classroom setting to take tests. · 44 minutes ago
It's even possible to proctor a test over the internet using a webcam now -- you have to clear the area around your desk and give the proctor virtual access to your screen, etc. It was rather creepy, actually.
Aug '10
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
Leigh
LowcountryJoe
There's no way around proctoring tests where students cannot have references so, from time-to-time, students will have to come into some type of classroom setting to take tests. · 44 minutes ago
It's even possible to proctor a test over the internet using a webcam now -- you have to clear the area around your desk and give the proctor virtual access to your screen, etc. It was rather creepy, actually. · 1 minute ago
How hard would it be to place a second computer just out of the webcam's field of vision, and cheat off it?
Jul '11
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
The star trek doctor tools are what i really want. The weapons too while were at it, phasers on stun mode would be the coolest trick to play on friends.
Aug '10
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
There's an X-Prize for that.
Sure sounds like a TASER to me.
Edited on February 8, 2012 at 8:19pmNov '11
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
Misthiocracy
How hard would it be to place a second computer just out of the webcam's field of vision, and cheat off it? · 12 minutes ago
I was obsessively careful to avoid anything that might look like cheating, so I have no idea how quick they are to catch anything suspicious. But ProctorU does have you turn the computer around so the webcam can see the whole room and make sure it is clear before starting. You can't get up, and no noise is allowed in the background. You don't know if/when they're watching you.
I'd guess a cheater would probably have to have an accomplice, and would be limited to casting furtive glances in the direction of the cheat sheet. But devious creativity isn't my strong point.
Edited on February 8, 2012 at 8:44pmAug '10
Re: How Do You Destroy 2 Billion Jobs in 20 Years?
Leigh
Misthiocracy
How hard would it be to place a second computer just out of the webcam's field of vision, and cheat off it? · 12 minutes ago
I was obsessively careful to avoid anything that might look like cheating, so I have no idea how quick they are to catch anything suspicious. But ProctorU does have you turn the computer around so the webcam can see the whole room and make sure it is clear before starting. You can't get up, and no noise is allowed in the background. You don't know if/when they're watching you.
I'd guess a cheater would probably have to have an accomplice, and would be limited to casting furtive glances in the direction of the cheat sheet. But devious creativity isn't my strong point. · 1 minute ago
Edited 0 minutes ago
Hmm... It seems like they are pretty darned vigilant.