How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
Marking a ripe opportunity for the Romney campaign are new polls that indicate that ultra-young voters—those aged 18 to 24—are open to voting for the Republican candidate this November. From the NYT:
Polls show that Americans under 30 are still inclined to support Mr. Obama by a wide margin. But the president may face a particular challenge among voters ages 18 to 24. In that group, his lead over Mitt Romney — 12 points — is about half of what it is among 25- to 29-year-olds, according to an online survey this spring by the Harvard Institute of Politics. And among whites in the younger group, Mr. Obama’s lead vanishes altogether.
Among all 18- to 29-year-olds, the poll found a high level of undecided voters; 30 percent indicated that they had not yet made up their mind. [Emphasis added]
Who are these ultra-young voters? My sense (my brother, my brother-in-law to be, and all their friends belong to this demographic) is that these are a pragmatic, matter-of-fact, skeptical group of young adults who are less inclined to be swayed by ideological arguments than were the Obama youth brigade of '08. These are people who have struggled to obtain college loans, who have had difficulty finding summer jobs and part-time jobs to help pay for school, and who largely lack the magical thinking of their predecessors who took for granted that there would be handsomely paying jobs just waiting for them after college. These young Americans have also seen their parents flounder with job loss, long periods of unemployment, and home foreclosure.
If I could counsel the Romney campaign on the question of how best to pursue this demographic, I'd advise them to avoid the slogans (hopey changey stuff won't work with this crowd), and to offer a vision of restoring America to a country that creates, innovates, competes, and wins.
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Comments:
Dec '11
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
From my sample of friends and relatives, a chunk of these people are or were fans of Ron Paul. They might still be inclined towards magical thinking, but in an anarchic/libertarian direction.
Nov '11
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
My wife and I are members of that group and the polls seem consistent with what we have seen among our peers. Many are still Obama fans but there are several more Ron Paul than Romney fans (which could make up a lot of the undecideds for reasons I cannot explain).
Jul '10
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
Explain Obamacare's Community Rating system to them, and how it means that the wealthy, established oldsters are to be subsidized to the tune of thousands of dollars by the young trying to establish a career and start a family. Or how Obamacare's capitation system for reimbursing doctors gives doctors a financial incentive to deny care to their patients. Or what the departure of most doctors under Obamacare means for the quality of their care if they break a leg or suffer a head wound or contract meningitis. How soon they may never, ever see a physician for decades at a time, instead being granted perhaps five minutes with a physician's assistant. Or how venture capital in the medical field is vanishing because the US healthcare market that has driven innovation for the entire world is dismantled by Bumbling Barry's landmark piece of legislation. Go through each tax into they cover their heads and writhe in horror.
Explain that now medicine will be as well run as the local public school. Oh! To live in such an age!
Edited on July 4, 2012 at 3:10amMar '11
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
I'd slightly edit your advice and say that Romney needs to pitch the demo on having the opportunity to help rebuild...that he wants to get government out of their way so that this demo can be the one that creates, innovates, competes and wins. There are a lot of 30-40 yr olds in particular that in another economy might have struck out to start their dream, but because of the economy were unable to do so - for whatever reason. Romney should simply pitch that he intends to remove the barriers as best as he can in the position he seeks
Sep '10
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
I'm beginning to think half those kids shouldn't be allowed to vote anyway. But now that I'm thirty that's easy for me to say, huh?
Aug '10
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
Perhaps the ultra-young are the voters that were too young to vote last time, and therefore had never made any sort of emotional commitment to Obama. To vote for him once, and then vote against him, involves changing ones mind, or perhaps even admitting error.
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
Yes, this is spot on. I had a similar thought, but you actually articulated it. (And hi! Good to see you around these parts Mr. Jonesness)
Nov '10
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
Perhaps the more fundamental question is this:
Is Romney really for the young at all?
Or he just, in a wishy-washy sort of way, not quite as against them as Obama is, as well as being off-puttingly square at the same time?
Could it be that the young, though mislead by Obama's coolness, actually see Romney for what he is: objectively unappealing?
Obama has a vision but fakes another. Romney neither has a vision nor fakes any.
Are we discussing here what Romney can be, or just pretend to be? If the latter, the conversation is too depressing to have.
In the same way that many conservatives have tried to fantasize that there is a silver lining to the Roberts decision, they have tried to fantasize that there is one to the Romney candidacy.
(Should we discuss how to make the Roberts ruling more palatable to the young, while we're at it? Hey kids, think of those commerce clause upsides, yo!)
Maybe it would be better if Obama gets reelected. Maybe he won't quite be able to pin the impending meltdown on anyone else. I really doubt whether Romney can avert catastrophe.
Hold tight kids.
Edited on July 4, 2012 at 7:15amApr '11
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
Romney has to effectively counter the emotionally appealing platitudes of the left. In my experience, young people today don't like BS, don't like to be preached to and don't like to be condescended to (in which case, how does Obama even stand a chance??).
Social issues may be a problem. Kids have learned that there is no greater evil than intolerance (not a terrible thing) But unless they have been specifically raised by intelligent, socially conservative parents they have also had it drilled into them that to oppose the gay activist agenda is to be a racist hater who inexplicably hates gays.
Still, I think many young people respect competent over "cool." Living with immature Xer parents may have cooled them on "cool."
Romney is actually good on this, because he doesn't come off as angry. If Romney is unfairly smeared as mean, hateful and bereft of ideas, when he is the opposite in the debates it will backfire on Obama.
Obama's in a tough spot. He needs to go negative to fire up his base, but the expected torrent of negativity will turn off the young independents.
Apr '11
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
Cutlass:
Romney is actually good on this, because he doesn't come off as angry. If Romney is unfairly smeared as mean, hateful and bereft of ideas, when he is the opposite in the debates it will backfire on Obama.
Obama's in a tough spot. He needs to go negative to fire up his base, but the expected torrent of negativity will turn off the young independents.
Let me add that if the GOP responds too negatively, many of these voters will likely just stay home.
These are kids that have often grown up feeling like the mature ones in a world of childish parents. They're sick of GenXers and Boomers endlessly bickering. So if Romney sticks to the issues and speaks directly to young folks as adults he'll have a shot at being heard. Especially if Obama only response is to blame everything on Bush and joke about Mitt's underwear.
Apr '11
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
As conservatives I think we may be predisposed to a negative view of Romney because we wanted a "real" conservative and now feel stuck with him. Kind of like how many kids can't fathom that others see their dad as a "normal" person.
To an independent, who likely accepts that public figures are performers, Romney may come off a smart, serious guy with some actual real world achievements. His un-coolness may actually be an asset, because he's definitely not good at trying to be cool.
May '10
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
Diane, you need to think outside the bubble. Not all people in that demo are "people who have struggled to obtain college loans, who have had difficulty finding summer jobs and part-time jobs to help pay for school, and who [expect] handsomely paying jobs just waiting for them after college." My 21 year-old granddaughter is not in school, she is looking for a full-time permanent job. With a good work history (for her age) and a great work ethic and good people skills, it is still very tough. She is a rabid conservative and she is fully aware that Obama's administration has ruined the economy. And she is just an exemplar. I have met many of her friends and I don't know a liberal among them. They are all conservative and patriotic. And my 18 year-old grandson is nearly as passionate as my granddaughter.
Oct '10
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
I'm not ultra-young (26), but I am very excited that the very first vote I get to cast in the United States will be against Mr. Obama.
Mar '12
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
The average projected cost to just Social Security and Medicare of each Baby Boomer: $1,000,000. There are 88 million Baby Boomers. That means 88 Trillion dollars added to all other federal budget costs over the next 35 years. The Democratic Party has always (and will always) resisted any reform to the cost of these programs. If you are under 40, your whole financial future depends on you not voting Democrat (for President, Senate or House) for the next 17 elections.
Apr '12
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
I'm a "youth" vote (29) and, looking at my classmates-- they're still stuck in the high school voting BS. Popularity contest, and to heck with the consequences.
Can't really take folks inside your family, unless they're from liberal parents; there are a lot of sensible folks my age, too, but a lot more who go on emotion, popularity and other BS. The good thing is that those sort don't usually stir themselves to vote.
Re: How Can Romney Win the Ultra-Young?
Ok, fair point. But even in different circumstances, this age demographic is still struggling to make it in this economy.