How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
Right now, I'd say awfully big.
Christine O’Donnell...trails New Castle County Executive Chris Coons 40 percent to Coons’ 51 percent, in the latest Rasmussen poll.
While 11-points is still a steep mountain to climb three weeks out from a election day, the poll results are a marked improvement from a CNN poll from this week which had O’Donnell down 19 points.
I don't think she's going to win, when it comes down to it. But if Christine O'Donnell is narrowing the gap this dramatically -- and in a blue state -- what about all of those other candidates out there with less...um...baggage?
On the podcast, I asked the panel how we'd know, on Election Day, whether it's a traditional political change-up like 1994 or 2006, or a realignment tsunami. If the Delaware senate race is even close, I'd say we're looking at a tsunami.
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May '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
Is this a Ricochet version of the Price is RIGHT showcase? Everybody pick the House and Senate pickups - you can't go over - and Rob will send you an autographed picture...of Claire Berlinski. (Tiebreaker: Pick the winning margin in Delaware)
Jul '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
Let us behave as if it will be a cliff-hanger. Enthusiasm is our ally. Complacency (or anything remotely resembling it) is our deadliest foe.
And then let's hold the Republicans every bit as accountable as we now hold the Democrats.
Sep '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
I'm game, and this thread is as good as any to start putting our bets in. Here's mine:
92 in the House, 10 in the Senate.
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
There will be a tsunami on 2 November. Whether it will be a blip on the screen or occasion a realignment will depend on what the Republicans do with their victory. The test will be 2012. In 1894, in the wake of the Panic of 1893, here was a massive shift of seats to the Republicans. But what this meant was not made clear until 1896 when William McKinley defeated William Jennings Bryan.
May '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
Ol' Bill McK is buried about 5 miles down the road from me. The oracle of McK says 73 seats in the House and 9 in the Senate. Biden breaks the tie until they convince someone to jump or Lieberman to caucus with them.
(TB: O'Donnell loses by 4.3%)
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
It would be cool to figure out some kind of Ricochet Pool. Is that even legal?
EJHill, if O'Donnell loses by 4.3%, I will title my Election NIght post: "I Am a Gigantic Idiot."
But I hope you're right!
May '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
God knows we don't have a shortage of legal eagles here... but as long as no one pays to get in I don't think it's considered betting. (Hence every contest has a "No purchase necessary" clause.)
Edited on Oct 15, 2010 at 6:44pmMay '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
And instead of The Price is Right, I should have said The Price is Center-Right...
Sep '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
Wisconsin is going to add 1 Republican Governor, 1 Republican Senator, and 2 Republican Representatives (maybe a 3rd). Remember, we went 56% for Obama two years ago.
It makes me think that we just might end up giving our electoral votes in 2012 to a Republican for the first time since Reagan (yeah, we went for Dukakis).
May '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
In Ohio we like to think we determine the fate of the nation every election cycle. If so, the nation's fate is a happy one because, aside from Rubio, we have the Republican party's two most sensational candidates in John Kasich and Rob Portman. Real winners who should rejuvenate the party in this state for years to come.
Great news for the country. Now if you all on the coasts would just get with the program.
May '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
Re the under-the-radar races, there must be quite a few that haven't been respectably polled recently, if at all. Jim Geraghty has a post at the Campaign Spot [link below] about such races, and there have to be more. Polling 435 races thoroughly is just unpossible.
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/249916/two-shocker-polls-and-now-both-revealed
There will be a lot of Eye of Sauron moments that night, when the press is focused on the big marquee battlegrounds, and stunning upsets suddenly occur right in the middle of Mordor.
Edited on Oct 15, 2010 at 8:47pmJul '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
Kennedy Smith: Re the under-the-radar races, there must be quite a few that haven't been respectably polled recently, if at all. Jim Geraghty has a post at the Campaign Spot [link below] about such races, and there have to be more. Polling 435 races thoroughly is just unpossible.
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/249916/two-shocker-polls-and-now-both-revealed · Oct 15 at 8:42pm
Geraghty?! Who needs that defeatist? What'd he do, concede Utah to Biden in the 2016 presidential? BTW, I'm pretty sure "dispossible" is the correct term.
Oct '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
I think we're looking at results similar to the 1938 congressional elections, which saw the Republicans gain 81 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate. But both houses were heavily Democratic before then and the Democrats retained their control of both despite the losses. Plus, that was not a wave election - this one is.
My prediction for 2010: Republicans +85 in the House and +10 in the Senate.
Jul '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
My prediction for the pool...
124 seats in the House
Republicans take senate by 4 seats.
Oh, Yes,
If O'Donnell wins expect to see Olberman et al speechless for at leas an hour after the announcment, after which they will go into a tirade about how this is all a display of total stupidity by voters.
Edited on Oct 15, 2010 at 11:18pmOct '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
Patrick Shanahan: Let us behave as if it will be a cliff-hanger. Enthusiasm is our ally. Complacency (or anything remotely resembling it) is our deadliest foe.
And then let's hold the Republicans every bit as accountable as we now hold the Democrats. · Oct 15 at 5:59pm
Yes, and yes. In reality, probabilities boil down to this: it either happens, or it doesn't. Encourage yourself with polls, but keep workin'.
Right now, my choice for my state's Senator (Joe Miller) seems to be tight with Miss Off-The-Rails. I'm pretty sure AK is fed up with the Murkowski brand, though.
Jul '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
Rob, that doesn't take into account the bump that happened after the debate.
O'Donnell scored points there. She looked electable.
I'd say the race is 4.3 points now, hence the Obama visit.
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
Michael Tee: Rob, that doesn't take into account the bump that happened after the debate.
O'Donnell scored points there. She looked electable.
I'd say the race is 4.3 points now, hence the Obama visit. · Oct 16 at 4:18am
You could be right about that. I don't know when, exactly, the poll was taken -- before or after the debate -- but I'd say that if it was taken before, the debate will only help her. If after, it's proof that she wears well. Either way, good news for her.
May '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
Not to be an Eeyore, but keep in mind that the first poll was CNN and the second was Rasmussen. Citing those polls in that order will almost always yield progress in our favor.
That said, I was impressed with O'Donnell's performance, especially given the transparent agenda of Blitzer and friend. Hope the country is wising up to the subtle (and not-so-subtle) ways in which the deck is stacked against us.
Jul '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
Is Delaware the only state where a visit by Obama would do a candidate any good? College campuses don't count as states.
May '10
Re: How Big is November 2nd Going to Be?
I know not nearly as much is invested in polling pre-primaries, but how did the pre-polling primaries square with the results, in DE, and elsewhere? Is it possible that the nature and depth of political anger out there is not being polled accurately? Just wondering...