How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
From the outset, I have thought that this year’s midterm election would be an event of historic importance. It has been a long time since anything like the Tea-Party has arisen, and there has never been a moment in my lifetime in which a political party brazenly defied public sentiment in order to enact a transformational domestic agenda in the manner in which the Democratic Party has in the last twenty-two months. As early as 2 August 2009, I was arguing that – thanks to the efforts of Barack Obama, Rahm Emanuel, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid – a realignment might be in the offing, and I am beginning to think that my intuition, initially occasioned by the eruptions that took place at the townhalls held all over the country at that time, was correct.
In the last few weeks, I have begun my morning by visiting Real Clear Politics – to sample the articles posted, to take note of the generic ballot results and of the polls in the senatorial races, and to consult that outfit’s estimates regarding House races likely to go to each of the two parties and those considered toss-ups. The changes have been gradual and slow, but the direction is clear. Every couple of days Real Clear Politics’ estimate of the number of House seats highly likely to end up in the hands of Democrats has declined. At no point, to be sure, did any pollster’s estimate of the likely Republican gains reach the 70-100 that I have been arguing for since the beginning of September. But, as I have long contended, this is because the pollsters do not know how to measure the significance of the enthusiasm gap for voter turn-out.
The one datum that I think the most telling is the result that Gallup reports concerning the generic ballot – which suggests that, if no more than 40% of the registered voters turn out on Tuesday, the Republicans will have a 14% advantage. This number, which is consistent with my estimate of Republican gains, beggars the imagination. Only twice in the sixty years that the Gallup organization has been polling the likelihood that voters would choose one party over the other in a given election -- in 1958 and 1974 -- has either party enjoyed such an advantage on the eve of an election, and on neither occasion was the party enjoying that advantage the Republicans. Moreover, Gallup has an excellent track record – as this chart, prepared by Jay Cost, indicates:
As Cost observes, “Only once in 60 years has the Gallup generic ballot underestimated Democratic strength by a significant amount – by 2% in 2006. On average, it slightly overestimates the Democrats, by 0.7%."
Now there is additional evidence. The Drudge Report posted this entry earlier this evening:
NYT LEAD MONDAY: Both parties see possibility of bigger Republican wins in House than either side was talking about -- even few days ago... Developing...
The report posted by Alex Isenstadt on Politico today at 4:53 p.m. confirms in part what The New York Times is purportedly about to report – that Democratic operatives expect their party to lose fifty to sixty and perhaps even more than seventy seats on Tuesday. Here is what one veteran told Isenstadt:
Everybody that is tied will lose, and everyone that is ahead by a few points will lose because of the GOP wave. There are going to be some surprises.
According to Isensadt, many of the operatives acknowledge that public sentiment “hardened” last Spring, “after the House passed a health care bill that remains deeply unpopular among voters. Democratic campaign officials say it is no accident that there are few Democrats in moderate-to-conservative districts who have promoted their support for the health care measure on the campaign trail, and most don’t even acknowledge it.“
One seasoned operative put it this way, “Here’s the part of this that bothers me the most: This is not an embracing of Republicans. It’s a rejection of Democrats.” That it is, indeed.
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Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
Paul A. Rahe:
One seasoned operative put it this way, “Here’s the part of this that bothers me the most: This is not an embracing of Republicans. It’s a rejection of Democrats.” That it is, indeed. ·
We keep hearing the elections will not be a showing of support for Republicans. I agree, but I think many libs are trying to contort that to imply it will not be an affirmation of conservatism. I strongly disagree. The upcoming blowout will be an affirmative rejection of Obama, Democrats, liberalism and socialism, and a demand that conservative prescriptions be instituted, imo. But if Republicans do hold fast to a conservative agenda they will regain the public's support. And Tea Partiers and other conservatives will be keeping a sharp eye like no other time in our history and will demand and enforce accountability.
Also, I agree with Professor Rahe that this will be a bigger blowout than has been predicted, and for the same reason, i.e, the pollsters have no way to measure/quantify voter intensity. Absent widespread cheating, this will be a tidal wave.
Jul '10
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
My gut tells me that this will be bigger than expected. But, as I say in another post, not because we are against Obama as much as we are for the basic structure of Americanism, which is rightly recognized as endanerged.
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
David Limbaugh
Paul A. Rahe:
One seasoned operative put it this way, “Here’s the part of this that bothers me the most: This is not an embracing of Republicans. It’s a rejection of Democrats.” That it is, indeed. ·
We keep hearing the elections will not be a showing of support for Republicans. I agree, but I think many libs are trying to contort that to imply it will not be an affirmation of conservatism. I strongly disagree. The upcoming blowout will be an affirmative rejection of Obama, Democrats, liberalism and socialism, and a demand that conservative prescriptions be instituted, imo. But if Republicans do hold fast to a conservative agenda they will regain the public's support. And Tea Partiers and other conservatives will be keeping a sharp eye like no other time in our history and will demand and enforce accountability. · Oct 31 at 6:24pm
I agree entirely. If the Republicans pay attention to the concerns of the people who sent them -- and these people are very, very conservative -- they will be embraced.
Jul '10
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
I enjoy 'hanging ten' on Yer optimism.
Jul '10
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
Item 1) Missouri Vote to Block Obamacare;
Polling 53% -- Actual Vote 71%
Item 2) Christine O'Donnell vs Castle;
Polling O'Donnell losing 52 -48 -- Actual O'Donnell wins 53 - 47
Why would anyone ever believe that the pollsters are missing something?
Edited on Oct 31, 2010 at 6:41pmOct '10
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
I expect a massive Republican win, but to roughly qoute Mona Charen, all it does is give the Repubs a chance to persuade people. I suggest that many informational town hall meetings and media appearances be held to explain how dire our debt and deficit straits are before pushing many unpopular budget reforms like a later retirement age for SS or perhaps giving seniors X dollars to purchase their own health plan. The media, obviously, will hardly be of assistance and will do what they can to help Dems demonize Republicans. E.G., Next summer, Congress will be asked to raise the federal debt ceiling. Voting yes makes Repubs seem hypocrites, but voting no could lead to a gov't shutdown and an opportunity for Obama to demonize Repubs ala Clinton.
Ironically, Pres. Obama blew a chance to be a great president by not taking the lead in entitlement reform. It'd have been easier for Dems to do it in an only-Nixon-could-go-to-China sense.
Edited on Oct 31, 2010 at 6:49pmAug '10
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
I have this nagging fear that this is all Howard Dean II, that a vocal minority amplified by the Internet has given the appearance of a wave that won't actually appear on election day. With everyone seeing the wave I just get doubly suspicious. I hope of course to be proved embarrassingly wrong on Tuesday.
Aug '10
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
Mr Limbaugh, You and I both live close to districts that belong to the Cong Black Caucus. The gerrymander a fait accompli. On Halloween we should remember the ghost we elected in 2000. His children are running in two races , the girl crawls from Soros pocket as Secy State. She confirmed all the new registrations in 2008. Largest filer in St Joe was Acorn. Acorn in St Joe ? I don't think the fraud is going to be absent, we can hope it's not widespread . We should know better and find some way to be vigilant - each of us . Imagine all the Carnahans in the field wiring wind turbines ? Vote then watch the polls , drive by some other polls . Make sure they know they're being watched and photographed .
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
Flownover: I absolutely DON'T discount the inevitability of widespread Dem cheating and just hope it's not widespread or significant enough to turn many seats -- but with the Dems conspiratorial behavior in 2000 and then the Franken hijacking we should never be complacent.
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
With respect, you should disabuse yourself of the notion this is a "vocal minority." You're never going to have a majority being vocal in the true sense of that word. But the Tea Party protest phenomenon has been about as widespread, vocal and authentic as we've seen in modern times -- and based on it, and the polls, which are surely understated -- I think you needn't fear -- EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CHEATING, as noted.
Jul '10
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
The easiest thing in the world is to not vote. I suspect a lot of people in the Obama base who tell pollsters they're definitely going to vote will not actually turn out.
Students won't feel that hope and change thrill - taking time away from school and slacker activities to vote for Keith Oberstar just doesn't stack up to voting for the historic First Black President.
Low-income urban black voters face heavy logistical issues such as arranging for child care and taking public transportation to the polls. Without Obama on the ballot and with their gerrymandered Congressman pretty much assured of re-election, their turn-out is guaranteed to be far lower than in 2008.
And Hispanics have pretty much forgotten why they voted for Obama in the first place.
Republicans and Tea Party voters, on the other hand, will crawl to the polls over broken glass if they have to.
How much affect this will have on individual House races is hard to tell, but it should be worth a percent or two in Senate races.
Aug '10
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
I too am a regular visitor to RCP-first thing in the morning and several times a day. I just noticed the Real Clear World section is either missing or harder to find.I guess foreign policy isn't a big issue this time out- or is the election just swamping everything else as, in truth, it is for me? You may not see it always but you Americans have by far the most fascinating electoral system on the planet, and not just because it can be so consequential for the rest of us. As for the wave, I have too much experience of 24 media hype to get completely carried away but I do buy in to the idea that this is going to be a stark rejection of hubristic overreach, condescension and tone deafness, not to mention Europeanisation. And if the Senate is out of reach I'll settle for a Boxer KO ( both in California and Nevada) and Illinois, which can't be spun other than as a humiliation for BO, if it happens- plus a couple or more other goodies along the way.
Oct '10
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
John Fund just brought up a good question. When the Republicans take over the house, is this guy going to be made chairman of the House Appropriations committee?
This could be one of the many looming battles between the GOP and the conservative/tea party insurgency. The winner of these battles is going to be determined by the size of the victory on Tuesday.
Edited on Oct 31, 2010 at 7:52pmJul '10
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
tms5018: John Fund just brought up a good question. When the Republicans take over the house, is this guy going to be made chairman of the House Appropriations committee?
This could be one of the many looming battles between the GOP and the conservative/tea party insurgency. · Oct 31 at 7:47pm
Edited on Oct 31 at 07:48 pm
He should be disqualified from public office just for that hairstyle.
This is definitely the uncle you don't invite to a child's birthday party.
Jul '10
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
I'm one of the 'don't get cocky' crowd: the overwhelming vote for Dems in 2008 may be seen as the mirror image of the overwhelming vote for Repubs in 2010. In other words, the natives are restless.
I truly hope that the new guys in congress don't screw it up. Really. A lot rides on the future health of the USA, like... the health of Canada? Sorry to be so selfish, here.
Oct '10
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
A lot of people voted for "change" in 2008, and they naively believed that the Democrats and Obama would give that change to them.
They didn't get change. They got an accelerated version of the drunken spending that the Republicans went on throughout their time in charge.
Now, the public wants change again, and they're going back to the Republicans in order to get it.
Let's hope the Republicans who do end up winning are going to get that message. Because this sea change is coming, and nothing's going to hold it back.
But it could transform into something neither party ever expected if the Republicans don't get with it and actually use that majority to enact Conservative principles.
I'm going to get a slurpee, have dinner, and watch the results come in on Tuesday night, very happy. I'm then going to hold their feet to the fire over the next few months.
Jul '10
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
Kenneth: The easiest thing in the world is to not vote. I suspect a lot of people in the Obama base who tell pollsters they're definitely going to vote will not actually turn out.
Students won't feel that hope and change thrill - taking time away from school and slacker activities to vote for Keith Oberstar just doesn't stack up to voting for the historic First Black President.
Low-income urban black voters face heavy logistical issues such as arranging for child care and taking public transportation to the polls. Without Obama on the ballot and with their gerrymandered Congressman pretty much assured of re-election, their turn-out is guaranteed to be far lower than in 2008.
And Hispanics have pretty much forgotten why they voted for Obama in the first place.
Republicans and Tea Party voters, on the other hand, will crawl to the polls over broken glass if they have to.
How much affect this will have on individual House races is hard to tell, but it should be worth a percent or two in Senate races. · Oct 31 at 7:35pm
I heard that rain disproportionately keeps the democrats from voting too.
Jun '10
Re: How Big Will Tuesday’s Wave Be?
I'm looking ahead to Tea Party: Part 2. We need a million citizens to rally at the Capital building on January 20th. No business as usual! Republicans need to be reminded who voted them in and why.
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Well, wonder of wonders! The local liberal rag of a newspaper, that would be the Santa Fe New Mexican, gave my letter to the editor the opinion page headline for October 30th: Tea Parties Won't Stop with GOP Win. Time to make good on a promise.