How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
Two nights ago on the Sean Hannity show, Ann Coulter suggested that, if Todd Akin won't withdraw from the Missouri Senate race, then Missouri voters should get behind a write-in candidate. She suggested an excellent choice for such a candidate in former Republican Senator Kit Bond. She also explained how Alaska voters successfully adopted such a write-in strategy to elect Lisa Murkowski to the Senate in 2010. Coulter repeated many of these same points in the column she published two days ago.
Her comments, I believe, have actually changed the Missouri race. According to Intrade.com, bettors now believe that an independent or third-party candidate has a 4% chance of winning the Missouri race. Three days ago those odds were hovering near 1 or 2%.
Further, the 4% chance, I believe, significantly understates the chance that someone besides Todd Akin or Democrat Claire McCaskill will win. Here's why: Suppose a grassroots movement builds for, say, Kit Bond as a write-in candidate. And suppose that Bond pulls ahead of Akin in the polls. Suppose, for instance, that a poll reports that 50% of Missouri voters prefer McCaskill, 30% prefer Bond, and 20% prefer Akin.
Now suppose you're one of the 20% who prefers Akin. Your first thought might be: "Akin, it appears, has no chance of winning. Consequently, maybe I should vote for my second choice, Kit Bond." As a consequence, if Bond surpasses Akin in the polls--even by a tiny margin--then that could be a tipping point that causes many Akin supporters to switch to Bond.
Political scientists call this phenomenon an instance of "sophisticated voting." A related notion is Duverger's Law, which says that in any first-past-the-post election, such as the one in Missouri, we should expect only two candidates to receive more than a trivial share of the votes. In this circumstance, the law predicts that either Bond's supporters or Akin's supporter's would erode to near zero.
Indeed, if a write-in candidate surpassed Akin in the polls--and his supporters started to switch their support to that candidate--then, I believe, Akin would withdraw. He might even endorse the write-in candidate and ask the Missouri Republican Party to declare that candidate the new Republican nominee.
This may sound a bit fantastical, but I don't believe it is. Yesterday, Intrade.com opened a new market. In this market bettors must predict the chance that Akin will withdraw from the race. At around 3:00pm Pacific Time today, the "bid" was at 30% and the "ask" at 40%, suggesting the odds that Akin will withdraw are about 35%.
Related to this, I believe, the odds that a Republican will win the race are now about 42%. When Coulter made her comments on Hannity, they were about 37%. I believe the 5% increase is due to the increased possibility that Akin will withdraw.
If a write-in movement in Missouri builds, and Akin subsequently withdraws, conservatives will owe a thank you to Ann Coulter.
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Dec '10
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
Well, perhaps. Also, Sarah Palin is behind this same movement and it is pertinent, as you use the Murkowski example, from Alaska.
Ann Coulter was very clear, on Hannity, yesterday. MO is a much bigger lift than Alaska. It is irrelevant, whether or not Akin drops out. What matters is if enough conservative voters take up a pen and write in a candidate. That will take ground game. Somebody will have to encourage Missourians to take a pen to the voting booth, and that won't be Ann Coulter.
And Bond is easier to spell than Murkowski.
Jun '12
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
After his press conference today, I'd say that the odds of Akin pulling out now are about the same as Obama admitting in his acceptance speech that he's been a terrible president.
He even posted on Facebook that he's "proved the party bosses wrong." That's not the action of someone that's willing to even consider bowing out.
And if MichaelC19fan is correct, the only way to get him off the ballot now is a court order.
Bond may win as a write-in, and I honestly hope he does, but Akin disappearing is an incredibly long shot.
Edited on August 25, 2012 at 1:30amMay '10
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
I think Jim Geraghty might have beaten Ann to the point. Here's the bottom line of a Morning Jolt item of his early on the 21st.
May '10
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
But a big advantage in this case is that the Republican Party is broadly united in thinking Akin should go.
In the Alaska race, conservatives were behind Miller (was that his name?) while establishment types wanted Murkowski.
If Republicans could rally behind a great candidate and coordinate a game plan, I think it could work.
Mar '11
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
katievs
But a big advantage in this case is that the Republican Party is broadly united in thinking Akin should go.
In the Alaska race, conservatives were behind Miller (was that his name?) while establishment types wanted Murkowski.
If Republicans could rally behind a great candidate and coordinate a game plan, I think it could work. · 0 minutes ago
On the other hand, Murkowski was incredibly motivated - almost obsessed - with winning that race. And that energy was certainly a big help.
Write-in campaigns are still, statistically speaking, almost guaranteed to fail. And unfortunately, "draftee" candidates (like Fred Thompson) also usually fizzle. I fear that calling an eminence grise out of retirement may not produce the momentum needed to convince voters to spring for a write-in.
Whoever goes against Akin (and McCaskill) will absolutely have to want that seat.
Edited on August 25, 2012 at 2:30amMay '10
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
Mendel
Whoever goes against Akin (and McCaskill) will absolutely have to wantthat seat. · 10 minutes agoWrite-in campaigns are still, statistically speaking, almost guaranteed to fail. And unfortunately, "draftee" candidates (like Fred Thompson) also usually fizzle. I fear that calling an eminence grise out of retirement may not produce the momentum needed to convince voters to spring for a write-in.
I know what you mean and don't disagree.
And yet and yet and yet....
Mightn't the motivation come from the Republicans generally? It's a very special case.
Aug '11
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
Why Bond? Why not Ashcroft or Danforth or one of the other former senators? Seriously, it's time to go forward, not backward. I've not heard Bond talk about this race at all...other than to lend his name as one of the old guard who asked Akin to bow out. Why not choose one of the other people who ran in the primary: Brunner or Steelman? A write in campaign is the only way to win against both Akin and McCaskill.
Aug '12
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
I think this is desperation and false hope. Take the resources elsewhere. Don't waste them in MO.
May '10
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
According to the Geraghty item I linked above, it's prohibited in MO election law. No one who lost in the primary can be counted as a write-in candidate. His preference for Kit Bond is that it's almost impossible to misspell.
Jul '12
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
Does anyone else think this Akin guy is a shill for McCaskill,? she has to have paid him off somehow for him to have dug in his heels this way to stay in the race, he has to no he has no chance of winning
May '10
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
I live in Illinois, and work in MO. Akin was my congressman when I lived in MO. I was praying that either of the other two choices would win. MO is an open primary state. McCaskill advertised in a way to ensure that the most conservative voters chose Akin. She has a TON of ridiculous videos where Akin is saying things which make the rape comment look measured.
She started running ads with those clips yesterday. This guy is Alan Keyes (version 2006 v.s Obama). I'll be stunned if Akin ends up with more than 35% by election day. Unless he expires, (or can somehow be persuaded to change his decision), this seat is lost.
I am more worried about this depressing mistake costing Romney the state. I think we'll win it, but this jerk is this election's Christine O'Donnell. What a shame.
The lesson of all this is two-fold:
1). Eliminate open primaries
2) mandate runoff primaries where there is no candidate with a majority. Trust the voters (it made Ted Cruz stronger)
Edited on August 25, 2012 at 6:21pmMay '10
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
I heard a few callers on radio shows make the point. But, personally, I don't believe it. I've met people like him. People who are have a combination of cluelessness, denial and absolute confidence in their own rectitude.
Nov '11
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
Nothin' times nothin' is nothin '.
Nothin' times almost nothin' is still almost nothin'.
Unlike Alaska, where the GOP regularly draws 60 to 70 percent, Missouri splits closer down the middle. In Alaska, Murkowski and Miller combined for 75% of the vote. But in Missouri where McCaskill will get something approaching 50%, in a three person race there won't be enough conservative votes to go around.
The only thing McCaskill would like better than running against Akin alone would be running against Akin and another conservative, who would beat each other bloody fighting over the same conservative votes.
Fact 1: In a three way race with two conservatives dividing about half the vote, McCaskill wins easily.
Fact 2: Akin is highly unlikely to step aside.
Perhaps Coulter et al will recover from their "theatrical outrage" (pleasant though it may be) in time to begin organizing a strategy around Fact 3 (unpleasant though it may be): If the GOP is going to beat McCaskill, it is going to have to do it with Akin.
Edited on August 25, 2012 at 5:41pmMay '10
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
Astonishing
: If the GOP is going to beat McCaskill, it is going to have to do it with Akin. · 1 hour ago
Edited 39 minutes ago
I agree. Perhaps, it would be wise for Mitch McConnell to let Akin know that even if he wins, and the R's win the Senate, he will get every crap assignment on committees and will get NO help on any bill for six years.
And an office in the Men's room...
Aug '11
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
CJRun:
And Bond is easier to spell than Murkowski.
Ha! That's what I was going to check in to say.
Also, I have a sense that voters would love a chance to take part in a legitimate "write-in" candidacy, for the sheer uniqueness of it. How many people wrote in Murkowski just because it was kind of a cool thing to be a part of?
Aug '11
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
katievs
I've met people like him. People who are have a combination of cluelessness, denial and absolute confidence in their own rectitude.
The man who lives in the White House comes to mind.
Nov '11
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
Keith Preston
Astonishing
: If the GOP is going to beat McCaskill, it is going to have to do it with Akin.
I agree. Perhaps, it would be wise for Mitch McConnell to let Akin know that even if he wins, and the R's win the Senate, he will get every crap assignment on committees and will get NO help on any bill for six years.
And an office in the Men's room...
Other than the satisfaction of amputating Akin's nose to spite the GOP's face, I don't see what's to be gained by that sort of thing . . .
Edited on August 25, 2012 at 6:57pmMay '10
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
I think conditions are ideal for a write-in. Social media+the specter of not winning back the Senate+fear of Obama. A YouTube video How To Vote Write-In...And the effort will put even more pressure on Akin. Make it so!
Edited on August 25, 2012 at 7:39pmMar '11
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
Astonishing
Keith Preston
Astonishing
: If the GOP is going to beat McCaskill, it is going to have to do it with Akin.
Other than the satisfaction of amputating Akin's nose to spite the GOP's face, I don't see what's to be gained by that sort of thing . . . · 0 minutes ago
Edited 0 minutes ago
I live a long way from Missouri but I absolutely agree. The Republicans should adopt the position that Akin may be an idiot but he's their idiot. I love Ann Coulter but I believe, in this case, she would serve her cause better by pushing three points: 1) Missouri voters are faced by a choice between two idiots, 2) It's because the Democrats perverted the primary, and 3) McCaskill is a dangerous idiot while Akin is a harmless idiot.
When I was young and politically active I worked my backside off on behalf of a local member who my friends and I referred to, privately, as the "Minister for bus stops". It was for the Party.
Nov '11
Re: How Ann Coulter is Affecting the Missouri Senate Race
Raw Prawn
Astonishing
Keith Preston
Astonishing
: If the GOP is going to beat McCaskill, it is going to have to do it with Akin.
Other than the satisfaction of amputating Akin's nose to spite the GOP's face, I don't see what's to be gained by that sort of thing . . . ·
. . . three points: 1) Missouri voters are faced by a choice between two idiots, 2) It's because the Democrats perverted the primary, and 3) McCaskill is a dangerous idiot while Akin is a harmless idiot.
Yes, but unfortunately it seems we're in the minority.
Conservatives seem to thing they gain something by trying to one-up and out-do the left with disproportionate over-the-top condemnations of Akin. You'd think he actually committed a "legitimate rape."
Aside from contributing to moral confusion regarding the distinction between what's bad and what's worse, the GOP's "feed him to the wolves" strategy whets the appetite of dangerous monsters for which Akin would be only the amuse bouche.
A better strategy: Clearly and succinctly disavow Akin's remarks, then shut up, and then counterpunch hard when the Dems overplay it.
Disband the circular firing squad!