Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
I have a column, just published on the Hoover Institution's "Defining Ideas" e-journal, regarding the nation's growing Latino population and its effect on the Republicans' ability to win future presidential elections.
The numbers don't look good for the GOP:
Latino-Americans, are now one-sixth (50.5 million) of the national population, compared to one-eighth (35.3 million) a decade ago.
Twelve of the nation’s 50 states have a minority population exceeding 40% — triple the number of such states in 2000. Four states — California, Texas, New Mexico and Hawaii — now claim “majority-minority” status.
Over the past decade, Texas has added more than 4.2 million residents, a 20% population increase. Hispanics, who now constitute about 38% of the Texas population, accounted for 65% of the state’s growth since 2000. By contrast, non-Hispanic whites grew just 4.2%.
Texas added nearly 1 million children under 18 in the past decade — and 95% of them were Hispanic. For the first time in Lone Star history, Hispanics make up the majority of the 4.9 million kids enrolled in Texas public schools, pre-kindergarten, and early childhood education.
In 1984, Ronald Reagan received 37% of the Hispanic vote. Two decades later, George W. Bush, boosted that figure to 40%. In 2008, John McCain received only 31%.
Taking the results from the 2008 election, adjusting for the new Census figures, and assuming that the minority-share of the national vote stays on course to be an expected 28% of next year’s turnout, here’s what the 2012 presidential math looks like in three pivotal states:
-- Obama could win Florida with only 40% of the white vote (he got 42% last time)
-- He would carry Pennsylvania with 41% of the white vote (he got 48% in 2008)
-- In Virginia, Obama would need a mere 33.5% of the white vote (down from 39% in 2008)
Peter Robinson penned a terrific column for the WSJ on the GOP's "immigration fixation".
I'd like to expand on that and get your thoughts on how Republicans can get back to those Reagan/Bush 43 numbers.
Is the problem messaging?
Is it a question of the right messenger?
If a state like Texas, with its growing Hispanic population, begins to change its color from reliably red to problematically purple over the next 20 years as those kids begin to join the voting population and presumably are more Democratic in their political orientation, how will Republicans reshape the electoral map to stay competitive in presidential elections?
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Dec '10
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
Republicans have no clue. None, zero, zip, nada, on how to talk to minorities. Its painful to listen to and make me question exactly how many Republicans even have minority friends/family. If the Republicans want to make any headway they need to higher on the consultants the Conservative party in Canada used and teach their speakers how to talk to minorities.
Its not a difference in values, its a difference in life experiences and failure of communication that prevents the Republican party from making headway with minorities.
Edited on Oct 20, 2011 at 1:12pmFeb '11
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
I'm a conservative, partly of Puerto Rican extraction. This issue arose in the most recent debate. To my mind, only Rick Santorum gave a serviceable answer and it was almost exactly right. Santorum argued that conservatives fight for the integrity of the traditional family and respect the role of faith in private and public life. These values should attract more Hispanics to the conservative community. The problem, of course, is messaging. Too often the media and politicians reduce this issue to "illegal immigration"--as if this were the only Hispanic contribution to American culture. Perry (who should know better) fell for this trap and digressed into a discussion of immigration that trailed off into incoherence (as he is wont to do).
That's not to say that the GOP should shrink from criticizing current immigration policy. I've seen a lot of empirical studies and surveys that show many Hispanic American citizens oppose illegal immigration just as vociferously as white conservatives. But the framing the issue is the rub: it's got to be about fairness and the rule of law. We must resist the pernicious liberal mindset that views individuals as merely as members of ethnic groups.
Jun '10
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
I agree. Too many conservatives, out of ignorance, have tunnel vision when it come to Hispanics. What if, every time the issue of Irish immigration came up, conservative politicians would reflexively start talking about how much we need to tackle the problem of drunk driving? Is that the whole social contribution of the Irish? Drunk driving?
May '10
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
So in order to get the Hispanic vote the GOP should do what?
I see lots of what we do wrong. What is right?
Apr '11
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
What unites conservatives is not our various groupings but instead our ideas and willingness to discuss them. We've been excessively shy about discussing social issues which often coincides with many of those minority groups that are so desperately sought.
I truly believe we need to stand up for those traditional values we're told that are out of style, as well as speak of freedom, opportunity, and pursuit of success.
Progressives will tell you none of those are possible without government control. We need to point out that government has the control, and still hasn't given us those things it has promised the control would bring. We also should point out that at this point, progressives only have fear as their counter-argument.
Dec '10
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
A lot of voters, not just Latinos, voted against McCain, against Palin (she was too shrill), and against Bush, i.e. against Republican mismanagement.
Your idea assumes the extrapolation of the voting pattern attributed to blacks and Jews. Is there evidence to demonstrate that Latinos are following that pattern?
Dense urban areas vote for Democrats. Latinos in dense urban areas will join their liberal neighbors and vote that way too. Will a majority of Latinos live in big cites in 20 years?
If the tea party movement fails in its reformation of the GOP, then a majority of Americans regardless of where the live will vote for Democrats.
If the tea party movement succeeds in electing Republicans who squeeze Leviathan down to its constitutionally limited size, then a majority of Americans will continue to vote for Republicans.
As for messengers, start with Marco Rubio.
Edited on Oct 20, 2011 at 2:19pmRe: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
On this matter, we should pay attention to Rick Perry. He got 38% of the Latino vote in Texas last time out.
Apr '11
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
Though I dislike his response to criticism for the tuition legislation he approved, what you've said is indeed a good reason to pay attention to him still.
Dec '10
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
C. U. Douglas
Though I dislike his response to criticism for the tuition legislation he approved, what you've said is indeed a good reason to pay attention to him still. · Oct 20 at 2:26pm
The current 3-term Governor of Texas will attract more of the informed Latino vote and the uninformed Latino vote than Romney.
Opposition to him is concentrated in the GOP establishment (both in Texas, and nationally), with liberals, and in the prejudice against Southerners.
Perry’s book, “Fed Up!: Our Fight to Save America from Washington,” may not be selling as well as “The Audacity of Hope” but its intellectual content and prescriptions for shaping our country for prosperity inform us of which of the two authors Americans can trust.
Aug '10
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
Reagan famously signed an amnesty in return for promised border security, employer crackdowns, and real immigration reform. The law & order aspects did not happen, and others already made the case he wouldn't get suckered again.
McCain was essentially an open-borders candidate. Even Obama claimed agreement with McCain (and Ted Kennedy) on immigration. Look how well that worked out for McCain: he got the lowest % of the Latino vote listed.
There are ways to properly frame the tough immigration reforms needed, such that it does not hurt the GOP's chances with Latino voters. Start with Marco Rubio's take on the matter. But for the love of sanity, let's stop pretending the GOP needs to go completely soft on immigration if it wants to stay electable.
Nov '10
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
A few ideas for Republicans:
Just shooting from the hip here.
Oct '11
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
I like your ideas Copperfield. I think we need candidates who champion the party as one of opportunity and upward mobility. Who speak to the aspirations of the many Latinos who are in business themselves, or aspire to their own companies.
Another thing is we should be more diligent in calling out left wing race baiters. It's a very common practice that keeps many non whites suspicious. They race bait with little chance of shame or stigma.
Jul '10
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
Sure they do. How else would they talk to their nannies, housekeepers, and lawn maintenance personnel?
On a serious note, I disagree with the assessment that the GOP needs to recruit Blank-Americans to the voting booths. That inevitably leads to pandering. How about proclaiming the message of conservatism and let the chips fall where they may?
Edited on Oct 20, 2011 at 4:40pmOct '11
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
Michael Tee
Sure they do. How else would they talk to their nannies, housekeepers, and lawn maintenance personnel? · Oct 20 at 4:38pm
Trying to keep the folks safe on the plantation?
Jan '11
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
The gorilla pinata in the room of course, is Immigration. I don't think it's possible to stick to a very principled conservative stance and not upset many latinos. On this, we just have to bite the bullet and not pander.
One place we could significantly improve our efforts is outreach. Last Cinco de Mayo, John Boehner cancelled the congressional observation of the day that many Americans of Mexican descent celebrate (and some of you gringos raise a margarita glass on that day too, I've noticed). What was the point of this? I have enough to convince my family of without headlines showing the GOP ignoring and snubbing our holidays. What would it cost the GOP to make some headlines in outreach to the Latino community?
It's this kind of misstep that will push more Hispanics to the dems, and with demographic realities the way they are, America will become Hispanic almost as quickly as Europe is becoming Islamic (even without illegal immigration). Either embrace us and welcome us as fellow Americans or get ready to watch your red states turn a brownish hue of blue.
Edited on Oct 20, 2011 at 5:27pmJul '10
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
SooperMexican: I don't think it's possible to stick to a very principled conservative stance and not upset many latinos. Well then, we lose Latinos because they disagree with illegal immigration.
One place we could significantly improve our efforts is outreach. Last Cinco de Mayo, John Boehner cancelled the congressional observation of the day that many Americans of Mexican descent celebrate (and some of you gringos raise a margarita glass on that day too, I've noticed). What was the point of this? It's as stupid as cancelling St. Patrick's Day. What would it cost the GOP to make some headlines in outreach to the Latino community? That sounds dangerously like pandering.
Either embrace us and welcome us as fellow Americans or get ready to watch your red states turn a brownish hue of blue.
This is a two way street. I don't consider myself part of the Italian-American (that's real Latin for you) community. I consider myself an American. Waving Mexican flags and cheering for the Mexican team in a soccer match seems to indicate that many do not consider themselves as Americans, but Mexicans first.
Jul '10
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
On another note, we don't worry so much about the Cuban-American vote now do we?
It is a travesty that America sends troops to Asia, Africa, etc. in order to liberate people from a brutal dictator, yet the Castro family still runs Cuba right next door.
Jan '11
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
By the way, Pew center exit polling from 2010 had about 70% of Latinos voting Democrat. They self-identify as Democrats about 65%. Marco Rubio reversed those ratios in Florida, but that state historically posts more Conservative Latinos because of the Cubans of course. From what I remember as a little kid in the barrio of Southern California, Reagan was tremendously popular among most people I knew, even though most said they were Democrats. Later, I learned, this was because of the immigration amnesty he signed into law. I also remember the "Viva Bush" bumper stickers during his campaign - he tried to speak Spanish and seemed to genuinely like Latinos. McCain was a grumpy old man to everyone even though he should have been amenable due to his amnesty attempt.
Biggest things to emphasize - work and family. We support policies that allow hard workers to keep their earnings. We support policies that strengthens families.
Biggest hindrance is that Latinos are approaching Blacks in one crucial and debilitating aspect: public employment. Our Marxist schools and Unions will indoctrinate Latinos and destroy our future.
Jan '11
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
Michael Tee, none of that matters as long as white people have few children, and everyone else is having many. Keep arguing the fine points - demographics doesn't care about your feelings.
Edited on Oct 20, 2011 at 6:14pmJul '10
Re: Hispanics and the Future of the GOP
SooperMexican: Michael Tee, none of that matters as long as white people have few children, and everyone else is having many. Keep arguing the fine points - demographics doesn't care about your feelings. · Oct 20 at 5:46pm
Edited on Oct 20 at 06:14 pm
So only Mexicans count and Cubans don't. Got it.
Your position distilled: Let's pander to my relatives.
My argument: Let conservatives argue their case and let people decide. I could care less about "voting blocks" and hyphenated Americans. What is needed is for the majority of Americans to vote for conservative candidates at the local, state, and federal levels. I seem to recall that happening in 2010 without pandering to any particular "community" at all. In fact, it was historic sweep for conservatives.
You can try to marginalize an argument that pandering isn't needed but my proof destroys your premise. So long as you and other consider yourselves Mexican before you consider yourself American, this problem with people who say conservatives need to pander to this hyphenated American "community" or that will continue.
In sum, the problem isn't with America.
The problem is with folks who refuse to assimilate.