Hezbollah "Simulates Coup" in Beirut
There's a school of thought among some here at Ricochet (as well as among the US media, who are conspicuous by their lack of interest) that we don't need to be too concerned about the results of the US tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri. Yes, they'll almost certainly indict members of Hezbollah for carrying out the hit; yes, they might even indict the Ayatollah Khameini, Supreme Leader of Iran, for ordering it, but none of these people is likely to lose sleep over something so piddling as a UN indictment. And if they're not bothered, we don't need to be.
This reading does not take into account the likely results of a civil war in Lebanon. Let's break it down.
Iran is the de facto ruler of South Lebanon via Hezbollah and wants the whole country. Plan A was to set up Hezbollah as Lebanon's tenacious defender against Israel and thereby infiltrate the government (done and done). But Lebanese opinion could swing quickly against Hezbollah if it is revealed that it was that group, with Iran behind it, that blew up a popular prime minister. If there is open defiance of Hezbollah in the streets, civil war could erupt, and Iran would be in the position of having to take Lebanon by force; there would no longer be any pretext that Lebanon swung east of its own accord. A rape of Lebanon is Iran's Plan B -- perhaps not its original intention, but something it is entirely capable of carrying out.
In sum: The UN indictments could lead to civil war, which Iran-backed Hezbollah would almost certainly win. With Lebanon subdued, Ahmadinejad could then step in openly to take up the Muslim cudgels against the American-Israeli axis -- and he'd be doing it from Israel's northern doorstep. Nukes shmukes. Who needs 'em?
I'd say this is a situation worth paying attention to. Is the above forecast theoretical? Sure. But three events took place yesterday that moved the pieces a few steps towards checkmate Lebanon.
- Saudi Arabia decided Lebanon is now too hot to handle and withdrew from mediation between Hezbollah and Sa'ad Hariri. (Note that "mediation" means "convincing Sa'ad to do what Hezbollah wants," which is to condemn the UN tribunal, disavow its findings and refuse to countenance the arrest of members of Hezbollah. It's unclear what he would get in return, other than permission to continue breathing.)
- Ahmadinejad made a speech in which he ordered the US, Israel, and several European nations to stop their "sedition" in Lebanon or face the consequences. True, he does go in for these "I will cut off your hand" speeches with some regularity, but we might want to pay a little more attention than usual because of...
- ...the events on the streets of Beirut yesterday. Black-clad Hezbollah militants, all carrying hand-held radios, spread across Beirut in a "simulated coup" of the capital. (It was simulated because they were not armed.) They appeared at twelve strategic points, including the entries to the city, the port and the airport. Frightened parents pulled their children out of school and the security services closed off access to the Grand Serail, the seat of government in downtown Beirut, upon sighting militants within 400 meters of the building. According to the Jerusalem Post, the two-hour exercise was apparently a demonstration of a Hezbollah first response to a release of the UN findings.
More on this to come.
- Comment (8)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (1)
Comments :
Jul '10
Re: Hezbollah "Simulates Coup" in Beirut
Judith, I apologize if this is a bit off-topic, but I must say that I find the concept of a UN tribunal with the power to prosecute to be troubling. In this instance, of course, the tribunal would seem to be acting in a virtuous manner. But the potential for mischief gives one pause.
Oct '10
Re: Hezbollah "Simulates Coup" in Beirut
Even if the UN issues indictments for Hezbollah agents, I doubt they will ever be brought to justice. I think the question is when is the West going to wake up and realize that Iran is a real threat? If a simulated coup in Beirut doesn't get Obamas attention, I don't know what will. Or maybe we are just going to leave everything for Israel to deal with? I sure hope that's not the case.
Edited on Jan 20, 2011 at 12:06amDec '10
Re: Hezbollah "Simulates Coup" in Beirut
Plan C: Hezbollah launches a strong barrage of missiles against Israel, hoping that Israeli retaliation will cause the rest of Lebanon to fall in behind Hezbollah as the only force with the potential to protect them from Israel. This would require Hezbollah to gamble that its domestic opponents wouldn't turn on it and let Israel pound on it (if not actually helping Israel pound on it).
Sep '10
Re: Hezbollah "Simulates Coup" in Beirut
This report is dire and I am bewildered at the implications. I don't know why I am commenting because I can see nothing constructive to say. Does anyone think that the other Lebanese factions (druze, maronite, etc.) have the will or the ability to fight a civil war? My very incomplete sense here is that the infrastructure to fight as well as the will to fight is very much on the side of Hezbollah and the Iranians. I would never counsel America to get involved and I see no other paths other than a wholsale takeover of this nation by religious fanatics.
Re: Hezbollah "Simulates Coup" in Beirut
Kenneth, I agree with you. I didn't realize until this tribunal hit the news that the UN had this kind of power. I'd be most interested to hear from any legally-minded readers who can give us more insight into this.
Sep '10
Re: Hezbollah "Simulates Coup" in Beirut
Judith Levy
Kenneth, I agree with you. I didn't realize until this tribunal hit the news that the UN had this kind of power. I'd be most interested to hear from any legally-minded readers who can give us more insight into this. · Jan 20 at 8:26am
This would be the same process as Milosevic et.al. from the former Yugoslavia no?
May '10
Re: Hezbollah "Simulates Coup" in Beirut
Thanks for the clarification, Judith. Now I understand why the tribunal matters.
I've never heard of a coup simulation before. I don't see how any nation can go back to life as before after an open threat like that.
Re: Hezbollah "Simulates Coup" in Beirut
Guys, the UN explains the tribunal thus: