Hezbollah Deserting the Syrian Ship?
DEBKAfile, citing unspecified military sources, is reporting that Hezbollah is planning to pull its heavy, long-range missile systems out of storage in Syria and bring them to Lebanon. The arms in question are Iranian-made Fateh-110 surface-to-surface missiles, its Syrian equivalent the M-600, and the mobile SA-8 (Gecko) anti-air battery, which holds 18 warheads.
If this is true, it has some interesting implications.
First, it would place Israel in more immediate danger. According to DEBKAfile, a redeployment of the Fateh-110s and M-600s on Hezbollah's turf in Lebanon would "place almost every corner of Israel within range of bombardment," while the SA-8s would "seriously restrict Israeli Air Force operations over southern Lebanon and Galilee."
Second, it would appear to present Israel with an unusual opportunity to strike the matériel while in transit. This would carry many risks, of course, including (as DEBKAfile notes) inadvertently disrupting the Syrian protest movement before it has had a chance to oust Assad. Still, Hezbollah's transit of the arms -- if it takes place -- will represent an unusual moment of weakness.
Third, it indicates that Iran is losing faith in Assad to crush the Syrian uprising. (Hezbollah does nothing without instructions from Teheran.) If Hezbollah/Iran risks moving the goods, it implies that they fear they might fall into the hands of Assad's opponents. DEBKAfile reports that there are signs of resentment of Assad's treatment of the Syrian protesters not only among the lower ranks but also among officers of the Syrian 11th Division, which is "the best trained and organized of all Syrian army units, equipped as its strategic reserve with the most advanced weaponry. If the unrest has reached this elite unit," DEBKAfile theorizes, "Hizballah reckons there is no time to losing for [sic] pulling its missiles out of Syrian military safekeeping."
The moving of the arms is unconfirmed as yet, but there are other signs that Hezbollah/Iran is pulling away from its Syrian ally. Last week, an op-ed in the Hezbollah-controlled Lebanese daily Al Akhbar criticized the Assad regime.
- Comment (7)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (2)
Comments :
Re: Hezbollah Deserting the Syrian Ship?
Judith, how much weight do you assign to DEBKAfile? I treat them a bit like the National Enquirer--sometimes they get it right, but unless I see it somewhere else, I just nod and say, "Well, maybe." What about you? Do you have any other reason to feel that this report sounds plausible?
Dec '10
Re: Hezbollah Deserting the Syrian Ship?
If the report is true, the IDF should definitely destroy the materiel - the second it has crossed into Lebanese territory. There's a UN Security Council resolution that makes that materiel contraband in Lebanon, and the Syrian democracy movement can hardly complain that Israel chose NOT to attack Syrian soil.
Re: Hezbollah Deserting the Syrian Ship?
Claire, DEBKAfile is famously alarmist and they have a habit of not identifying their sources, but their stuff usually has of a good chunk of truth in it. Nothing may come of this, but that might ultimately be due either to Hezbollah's inability to pull it off logistically or Iran's weighing that it's too soon for their proxy to spark a war with us.
That editorial in Al Akhbar is what got me thinking that this might very well be an accurate report. If Hezbollah's going on record in Arabic against the Syrian regime, things are starting to shift up there.
Re: Hezbollah Deserting the Syrian Ship?
Judith, may I ask about something I've never understood? To what extent does Hezbollah enjoy Iranian protection? You mention that Israel might strike Hezbollah's missiles while they're in transit. I certainly like the sound of that, but do we know how Iran would respond? Is the relationship between Hezbollah and Iran fuzzy enough, so to speak, that Iran might simply choose to ignore such a strike? Or is the relationship between the two such that Iran would consider itself compelled to retaliate somehow? I know I'm asking you to give me a reading on unbalanced minds, but the question strikes me as important: To what extent would Iran consider a strike against Hezbollah a strike against Iran itself?
Edited on May 5, 2011 at 10:13amDec '10
Re: Hezbollah Deserting the Syrian Ship?
Judith Levy:
That editorial in Al Akhbar is what got me thinking that this might very well be an accurate report. If Hezbollah's going on record in Arabic against the Syrian regime, things are starting to shift up there. · May 5 at 7:53am
Judith, is there a link to the editorial? The pro-March 14th site Ya Libnan has no mention of it.
Re: Hezbollah Deserting the Syrian Ship?
Peter, an Israeli strike on the arms would be very dangerous. It's pretty safe to assume that if Hezbollah does take the step of moving the arms, it will be doing so with the express prior agreement of Iran, since Iran has punished it in the past for taking the initiative (it slashed its funding following Hezbollah's sparking of the 2006 war with Israel, for instance). Iran is perfectly capable of letting Hezbollah take a hit if it's not prepared to engage us, and Iran's got a lot on its plate right now domestically (the sanctions, which have hurt enough to prompt another round of proxy budget cutting; the Khameini-Ahmadinejad rift, which by the way Khameini is winning). Still, as pretexts go, an Israeli strike on Hezbollah arms would probably appeal to both Khameini and Ahmadinejad, and rising to Hezbollah's defense would be a great way to deflect attention from both Iran's internal problems and the approaching public revelation of Hezbollah/Iran's role in the Hariri hit.
Re: Hezbollah Deserting the Syrian Ship?
An Israeli strike would also be dangerous because Hezbollah is already well-equipped to inflict serious damage on us. They have spent the years since 2006 actively rearming (in direct violation of Resolution 1701 and under the noses of UNIFIL) and now have many more missiles than they did before the war, and with longer ranges. They have also reorganized their military infrastructure south of the Litani in such a way that it is threaded throughout populated areas, putting the Shia civilian population directly in the line of fire of any Israeli retaliation to missile strikes.