Here's the Argument Against Talking to Iran
James, although I'm not sure you're wrong, the argument against these kinds of talks is that Iran has repeatedly used them, incredibly skillfully, to fog the issues, divide international opinion, and peel our allies away at critical moments.
The key example is the story of the Turkish-Brazilian-Iranian fuel swap negotiations. As we are reminded by observers with an enthusiasm for Middle East clichés, the Persians invented chess, and this story played out like Spassky demolishing a high-school amateur. Now, the United States deserves much blame for this debacle. There is no doubt that Obama’s communication with Turkey and Brazil was unclear at best. The Turks are justified in saying this. One assumes the Obama Administration never took the these negotiations seriously and never dreamt the Iranians would accept the offer.
In retrospect, it is very obvious that the Iranians were closely watching the United States’ maneuvering in the Security Council. We had been lobbying for sanctions for months, and sanctions, from the Iranian point of view, were the central threat. Their overarching objective in these negotiations was to corner the United States. So they watched and they remained engaged with Turkey. We worked on the Russians, the Chinese, the French. France fell in line. Russia and China remained ambiguous. Had the US failed to convince China and Russia, Iran would never have accepted the fuel-swap deal.
Note the timing: The permanent representatives to the UN made their statements—China and Russia were on board. The Tehran Declaration came immediately afterwards. This was so shrewd, so preemptive. "Congratulations! The crisis is over! There’s no need for sanctions!” Except that of course, the package didn't obviate the threat it was supposed to obviate.
Hilary Clinton was humiliated. The United States was made to look as if it were the obstacle to peace; the Turks were forced into a devastating choice: Lose face before Iran or enrage the United States. The Iranians successfully sheared off Turkey from the entire world.
There is a downside to engaging in diplomacy if your interlocutors are, not to put too fine a point on it, much cleverer than you are.
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Jul '10
Re: Here's the Argument Against Talking to Iran
Claire Berlinski, Ed.:
As we are reminded by observers with an enthusiasm for Middle East clichés, the Persians invented chess, and this story played out like Spassky demolishing a high-school amateur. Now, the United States deserves much blame for this debacle. There is no doubt that Obama’s communication with Turkey and Brazil was unclear at best. The Turks are justified in saying this. One assumes the Obama Administration never took the these negotiations seriously and never dreamt the Iranians would accept the offer.
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I find your Analogy followed by the analysis both apt, and disturbing.
As far as foreign policy goes, The One is most certainly a High-School Amateur.
Sometimes the current administration reminds me of a man who is arguing with his wife, and somewhere along the lines in the argument it dawns on him that She's Right. But he continues anyway, for momentums sake or some such.
Oct '10
Re: Here's the Argument Against Talking to Iran
I see no reason why it is in the interest of Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollah's to give up on their nuclear ambitions. Acquiring nukes and becoming the region's hegemon will marginalize Iran's opposition groups.
Once Iran is a nuclear power, like China, they won't hesitate to "Tiananmen" any potential revolts.
Jul '10
Re: Here's the Argument Against Talking to Iran
It is pretty clear in the aftermath of the 2008 election, with Obama in the Oval Office and Hillary at State, that neither was in any way, at any time, to any extent qualified to serve in the office they both sought.
Checking out US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice. She is a DC native, went to Stanford, was a Rhodes Scholar, and is married to a Canadian ABC News producer, so she must be grade A material. Foreign Policy aide to Dukakis during his Presidential run. Gosh, that imaginative and dynamic Dukakis foreign policy, that sure sends me back.
I hear John Bolton is available.
Jun '10
Re: Here's the Argument Against Talking to Iran
Ahmadinejad: "Just wanted to say thanks for taking Israel to task on their apartment construction in East Jerusalem...and treating Netanyahu so shabbily when he visited the White House."
Obama: "Oh, don't mention it. It's the least I can do. Say, about that nuclear weapons program..."
Ahmadinejad: " - Don't go there!"
Obama: "Well, I just thought I'd ask. I hope you're not upset."
Ahmadinejad: "No. I'm good."
Obama: "Hey, and thanks for raising the price of oil. It really helps that you guys do this. Takes the heat off me. Now my country won't be so wasteful and will be forced to cut back on driving so much. Reduce our carbon footprint and all..."
Ahmadinejad: "Happy to help. Are we done?
Obama: "I suppose so. Thanks for coming. Give my best to the mullahs."
Ahmadinejad: "Sure thing."