Has Russia Found a New Equilibrium?
Over at the American Interest, Vladislav Inozemtsev, the Director of Moscow's Center for Post-Industrial Studies and professor at the Moscow School of Economics, has a fascinating write-up of the present-day political situation in Russia. In his essay, he challenges just about every Western assumption about the realities of the Russian system and where it's headed (e.g. the government isn't run by a bunch of former KGB agents; it's run by a bunch of incompetent bureaucratic boobs).
Here's Inozemtsev's thesis:
The Russian system cannot exist without economic freedoms, and that is why there will be no second coming of the Soviet Union. But the system deeply fears political freedoms, which are incompatible with its feudal perspective. Thus Russia will not soon look like any country in Western Europe or North America. It will not collapse, and it will not radically evolve. It will simply be. And what hope the future supposedly holds will resemble the wry Stalinist joke that the horizon is a far-off place that continues to recede as you approach it.
History instructs that it'd be much more prudent to say, "It will simply be. Until it changes."
"Those in the US who think the Soviet Union is on the verge of economic and social collapse, ready with one small push to go over the brink are...only kidding themselves."
--Arthur Schlesinger, 1982"The Soviet Union is not now nor will it be during the next decade in the throes of a true systemic crisis, for it boasts enormous unused reserves of political and social stability that suffice to endure the deepest difficulties."
--Seweryn Bialer, Columbia U 1982
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Jul '10
Re: Has Russia Found a New Equilibrium?
Diane, my impression is that the vast majority of Russians are simply apolitical. Their day to day concerns are economic and they do not believe that political action is going to improve their situation.
Their history is feudal, followed by totalitarian. They have a long history of learned helplessness. So, in a sense, the political class doesn't need to keep them down; they keep themselves down.
Add to that the fact that Putin is very skillful at playing to the population's patriotic pride and you have a situation where, so long as the populace has food on the table and vodka in the glass, they will remain docile.
Re: Has Russia Found a New Equilibrium?
This is my sense as well.
Also, your comment sounds nearly identical to historian Richard Pipes in his 2009 WSJ article, "Pride and Power":
Edited on Feb 23, 2011 at 4:03pmJul '10
Re: Has Russia Found a New Equilibrium?
"They hardly feel themselves to be citizens of a great state, but confine their loyalties to their immediate families and friends and the locality which they inhabit."
Interesting observation. This is what I'm seeing with my wife's family in Siberia - they take shelter and sustenance within a very small sphere of family and friends and consider everything else to be irrelevant to their reality.
In a way, that makes them more free than we are; we have to constantly contend against the encroachments of government at all levels.
Edited on Feb 23, 2011 at 4:17pmOct '10
Re: Has Russia Found a New Equilibrium?
Kenneth: "They hardly feel themselves to be citizens of a great state, but confine their loyalties to their immediate families and friends and the locality which they inhabit."
Interesting observation. This is what I'm seeing with my wife's family in Siberia - they take shelter and sustenance within a very small sphere of family and friends and consider everything else to be irrelevant to their reality.
In a way, that makes them more free than we are; we have to constantly contend against the encroachments of government at all levels. · Feb 23 at 4:16pm
Edited on Feb 23 at 04:17 pm
Sounds like America, circa 1800.
Feb '11
Re: Has Russia Found a New Equilibrium?
But Russia can’t be at equilibrium simply because it’s not at demographic equilibrium. See Mark Steyn’s “America Alone”. Russia has the lowest fertility in Europe – far below replacement. Check out WolframAlpha for their population graph. And a very high fraction of pregnancies there end in abortion. To quote Steyn’s memorable joke, Russian women are voting with their fetus. That’s not equilibrium; that’s national suicide.
Russia is also a very interesting point in evidence against Natan Sharansky’s “The Case for Democracy”, the landmark book upon which President Bush’s (43) foreign policy was based. But that’s a different discussion.
Re: Has Russia Found a New Equilibrium?
Albert Fuchs: But Russia can’t be at equilibrium simply because it’s not at demographic equilibrium. See Mark Steyn’s “America Alone”. Russia has the lowest fertility in Europe – far below replacement. Check out WolframAlpha for their population graph. And a very high fraction of pregnancies there end in abortion. To quote Steyn’s memorable joke, Russian women are voting with their fetus. That’s not equilibrium; that’s national suicide.
I don't follow your argument about how political equilibrium is contingent upon demographic quilibrium. I am familiar with the negative trajectory of their demographic trends, but I don't see how that affects the political system. Except for the fact that you can't count on the youth to hold the key to the future. Because there are no youth.
P.S. Albert, I recognize your name from Uncommon Knowledge. I used to be in charge of picking the best questions for Peter to ask his guests and recall seeing lots of good questions from you. Welcome!
Feb '11
Re: Has Russia Found a New Equilibrium?
Thanks, Diane. It's nice to be here. My wife and I think your former boss, Peter Robinson, has the coolest job in America.
I just mean that there won't be Russians in four generations. I may have overstated my point. It certainly could remain politically stable until the last Russian turns out the lights and moves to Poland.