There's always a discussion simmering somewhere about war between Israel and Iran -- who will start it, what arms will be used and by whom, what retaliation will be exacted, what the effect will be on the rest of the region, and so on and so forth. The central question is usually, "When will the war begin?"

Begin?

We'd all like to know how close Israel will allow Iran to get to the nuclear threshold before acting preemptively, but let's not mince words here. Iran is already at war with Israel, and it is conducting that war through its local proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah. The nuclear issue is important -- of course it is. But you don't need nukes to make life here difficult. Israeli citizens with the misfortune to live, say, within striking distance of the Gaza Strip are already on the front line. They're not anticipating a war; they're living one.

Earlier this morning, Iranian-backed Palestinians in Gaza heavily shelled civilian areas inside sovereign Israel. Sha'ar Hanegev, Eshkol and Sdot Hanegev were bombarded with more than fifty rockets. Residents were ordered to remain inside their homes or in shelters. Two civilians were injured by shrapnel and taken to Soroka Hospital. "We are used to sporadic rocket and mortar fire, but this was not the daily show we are used to," said Eyal Brandeis, a kibbutz secretary in the Eshkol Regional Council and the head of a local emergency response team. "When we heard the high number of explosions across the area, we knew this was not an ordinary attack."

Hamas does what its sponsors tell it to do. The escalation of its war with southern Israel reflects both Iran's emboldenment following the collapse of the Mubarak regime and its eagerness to test the limits of what it can achieve ahead of end-game nuclear conflict. Remember that this morning's assault on Israeli civilians follows the interception by the Egyptians of an overland arms shipment from Sudan destined for Hamas, as well as the seizure by the Israeli Navy of a 179-meter-long cargo ship bearing 39 containers full of arms. Thirty-nine containers' worth of arms is a lot: it puts this smuggling attempt in the ballpark of the Karine A. In one of those details that elevates incidents like this to the level of art, some of the arms came with instruction manuals in Farsi. That's unreadable to most Gazans, but eloquence itself to the Israelis. 

The containers were loaded onto the ship at the Syrian port of Latakia, which is the port at which those two Iranian warships (remember them?) docked last month. The arms included thousands of mortar shells, about 67,000 assault rifle bullets for AK-47s, and six C-704 radar-guided anti-ship missiles. Those missiles have a 35-kilometer range and a 130 kilogram explosive warhead capable of sinking 1,000-ton vessels. The Jerusalem Post  notes that if those missiles had reached the Gaza Strip, the Israeli navy -- which now operates just a few kilometers off the coast of Gaza -- would have had to pull back. This, I need hardly say, would represent a serious blow to Israel's defensive capability against a hostile western front.

Regarding today's attack by Hamas: Israel lodged a formal complaint with the UN over the rocket bombardment of civilian areas and also hit Gaza with tank shells and helicopter strikes.

Expect condemnation shortly of Israeli aggression.

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Gus Marvinson
Joined
Mar '11
Gus Marvinson

The definition of war cannot be reduced to two armies on clearly opposing fronts battling to move colored stick pins on a remote war-room map. As you say, Iran (Hamas) has been at war with Israel for decades and will continue to be at war with Israel, and any nation that supports them, for the duration of their current regime.

With a conventional understanding of war, it is virtually impossible to mark the beginning of asymmetrical, unconventional warfare until long afterward, when a chain of events has given rise to a recognizable pattern. Henceforth, maybe the best way to define war is this simple formula:

Islam + violence = war.

Edited on Mar 19, 2011 at 7:58am
Good Berean
Joined
Oct '10
Good Berean

Thanks, Judith. I fear all sorts of mischief toward Israel while the attention of the world is directed toward North Africa. Hang tough and keep posting.

flownover
Joined
Aug '10
flownover

Israel has encumbered itself with some pretty tame rules of engagement, almost as if it's attempting to please a stern, unloving, and distant parent. Unless they're thinking of a heavenly parent, then they are sadly mistaken in thinking that the present administration in the US will be much help. Yesterday they were smooching the behind of Ibrahim Hooper ! 

Why do they limit themselves to the limited response ? Are there many in the country that plead for pacifism ? Are they cursed with the same blocs of appeasing idiots that we have to endure here in the US ?

Harsh measures will show Iran strength, the only thing they understand. Has the Stuxnet been cleansed ? Time for plan B, or plan O, or plan M, or plan B.

Edited on Mar 19, 2011 at 8:44am
Johannes Allert
Joined
Dec '10
Johannes Allert

 My gravest concern is that this will be a slow motion train wreck.

TeeJaw
Joined
Nov '10
TeeJaw

I hope Israel’s leaders understand that there is no hope unless and until Iran’s ability to make war is completely and utterly destroyed.  Of course, Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuke, but preventing that is not enough.  The Iranian Navy must see all of its ships resting on the bottom of sea.  There’s no sense in trying to make nice with the rest of the world because its anti-semitism will always interpret Israeli self defense as aggression.  Power and victory is universally admired and that is how Israel can earn the respect of its detractors, even if it’s grudging.

The Arab and Iranian dictators may not care much about their people but they don’t want to lose their military capability.  They need to fear losing it when they mess with Israel.

Greg Alterton
Joined
Oct '10
Greg Alterton

I'm tempted to weigh-in with the meme of "Where's Obama?" but in regard to standing by Israel, I'd rather he just stay on the golf course.


Joined
Dec '10
Nickolas

Judith Levy:

The containers were loaded onto the ship at the Syrian port of Latakia, which is the port at which those two Iranian warships (remember them?) docked last month. The arms included thousands of mortar shells, about 67,000 assault rifle bullets for AK-47s, and six C-704 radar-guided anti-ship missiles. Those missiles have a 35-kilometer range and a 130 kilogram explosive warhead capable of sinking 1,000-ton vessels. The Jerusalem Post  notes that if those missiles had reached the Gaza Strip, the Israeli navy -- which now operates just a few kilometers off the coast of Gaza -- would have had to pull back.

Now we know what the primary mission of the Iranian naval ships that passed through the Suez on their way to Syria probably was.

The six C-704 radar-guided anti-ship missiles are a big deal.

They are of Chinese design. I don't know who else manufactures them.

Edited on Mar 19, 2011 at 11:44am
flownover
Joined
Aug '10
flownover

You think Obama would bow to Khamenei ? I think I would have been happier if he had just adopted some of Bush's attitude rather than his policy on Gitmo or staying in the war in Afghanistan. I appreciate that the cold reality has woken him from the dreams of closing Gitmo , but gee a little bit of testosterone goes a long way in the Middle East.

Has anyone shown him The Strong Horse ?

Dave Carter

"Israel lodged a formal complaint with the UN over the rocket bombardment of civilian areas...  Expect condemnation shortly of Israeli aggression." 

Judith, why bother lodging a formal complaint with the UN?  My immediate reaction was why not also file a formal complaint with the Tooth Fair, for all the good it will do?  There must be a strategic or diplomatic benefit to this fan dance with the UN, but it escapes me (as do many things).  

Aaron Miller
Joined
May '10
Aaron Miller

I agree with Dave. John Bolton understands how worthless the U.N. is. If he or someone like Allen West is elected President in 2012, then Israel should abandon the U.N. entirely. Israel gains nothing by pretending to be part of an organization that doesn't want her.


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