Grounds for Optimism
Looking at trends in economics, demographics, education, popular and high culture, and a host of other metrics of civilisation inclines one to despondency about the prospects for the future. Indeed, in an earlier conversation where I cited this posting from before the 2008 election, one person responded that if that were really the case, shouldn't one just open their veins and be done with it.
And yet, we don't, or at least I do not. As an investor, I have learned the value of “contrary opinion”: when 80% of the participants in a market are sure it's climbing to the sky, that's the time to sell. Conversely, “buy when blood is running in the streets.”
So what I want to pose as a question to the wise folk here is what might happen in the next few years which would entirely recalibrate our expectations for the future from grim 1970s despair to morning in the solar system? Recall (if you're old enough), that as late as 1987 nuclear apocalypse and capitulationist propaganda was everywhere in the West, and yet a mere five years later the Cold War was not only over, but decisively won.
Here are a few wild cards which might be drawn from the deck in the next five years:
- A breakthrough leading to molecular nanotechnology.
- A discovery which extends the healthy human lifespan by a factor of two or more.
- Popular revolutions in authoritarian societies result in consensual government around the world.
- Exponential growth in computing and communication leads to the onset of a technological singularity.
- An energy crunch leading to a transition to affordable, sustainable, and renewable fission power based on a Uranium/Plutonium or Thorium fuel cycle and transition of transportation and heating from fossil fuels to electricity delivered through an augmented power grid.
These are just suggestions (none of which violate the presently-understood laws of physics). What are your grounds for optimism?
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Comments :
Oct '10
Re: Grounds for Optimism
The pessimism found in our present culture has not come about for lack of technological innovation. We have all seen enough unparalleled technological advances in our lifetime to satisfy for centuries. It is the loss of hope in the future of America as a nation of free people living out a responsible and moral life that we despair over. If there is any hope in here, it is that the battle between the statists and the independent and free man has finally begun to show signs of being engaged.
As for all that technological progress, if we lose this battle, it will STOP.
Jul '10
Re: Grounds for Optimism
Given that demographics are destiny, I see no reason for optimism, period.
Oct '10
Re: Grounds for Optimism
"A discovery which extends the healthy human lifespan by a factor of two or more"
Will my work never end?
Oct '10
Re: Grounds for Optimism
Kenneth, Hungary's government recently has been encouraging more children (they're even talking of giving extra votes to families with children). If one of those countries can wake up to the problem. . .
Besides, we're not anywhere near as bad as Europe is. America is much better at self-regenerating, probably from our sheer size.
John, the technological singularity is probably not going to happen anytime soon (there are physical limits we've run up against, for example). Plus there are important bits of computer science that aren't developed enough, like parallel processing.
Oct '10
Re: Grounds for Optimism
But I am optimistic. Because of the Internet, ideas be exchanged and developed much more quickly then in the past. Innovation is much easier, and access to information isn't just greater, access to people doing similar innovative work is too.
Besides, America's sheer size means the odds of society-saving innovation is much greater here. The 70s saw a great deal of research and development on computers, for example--and probably other innovations that propelled America forward in the 80s. The pace of innovation is a lot faster these days, too.
Sep '10
Re: Grounds for Optimism
I'm optimistic that the coming apocalypse will hit my enemies somewhat harder than my friends. That's about it.
Sep '10
Re: Grounds for Optimism
I will bring a little optimism. We are in the midst of an energy boom that has little precedent in the last 50 years. It is likely the recoverable natural gas (even at today's prices) from just one of the new shale formations (Marcellus, Haynesville) is about equal to the entire proven natural gas reserves of the US just 10 years ago. It is early on in shale development and I don't want to get too crazy, but the US is, I believe, transitioning from scarce supplies to abundant supplies of natural gas. Our options are going to free up some in the future and there is no reason to believe that these shale resources are restricted to North America. Things are changing for the better.
May '10
Re: Grounds for Optimism
1.) The generally positive direction of economic freedom
2.) The exponential potential of technological innovation
Feb '11
Re: Grounds for Optimism
Pessimism is so dreary, and one fears being a drag and wet blanket. Yet without some sort of Kurzweilian Techno Singularity, or a revolution that, say, cuts energy costs 10-fold---and fast--- I'd be inclined to forecast a colossal breakdown of human civilization within the next 50 years---possibly far sooner. The reasons are known, but some are unpopular among conservative circles and are ignored.
We can dismiss global warming as tosh, but another, far larger environmental problem, I believe, is real: habitat destruction and despeciation. Human numbers continue to grow, towards 10 billion. Market fundamentalists chant their approval, but at some point---barring a transformative technological initiative that outflanks the problem---ecological stresses will become so critical that our own agriculture, on land and sea, is imperiled. The important thinker and writer Jared Diamond has written on this.
Beyond the Malthusian-type risks, there's nuke proliferation via Iran, N. Korea and Pakistan. It WILL happen; the only question is how far out.
Then, there comes the ultimate grounds for pessimism: eschatological considerations. Can humanity endure---forever? The specter of Extinction haunts...
Feb '11
Re: Grounds for Optimism
The thing with nanotechnology is they need to find both bottom up (self-organization) and top down (taking larger to smaller such as grinding or a chemical means) on an economic basis. That is fundamental. Molecular techniques are great and will have and have had an impact on human health.
As for energy, it needs to be more energy dense, i.e., more J/cubic meter, and not biofuels or wind or solar which are dead ends both technologically and economically.
Sustainability is another thing. NOTHING IS SUSTAINABLE. It's simple thermodynamics. We go from higher to lower energy states.
But it is only partially about technology or economics. It is much more about leadership.
We're at a low state of leadership. There's been lousy or non-existent leadership in the US since Reagan's time. (I think both Bushes were a joke and extremely weak.) We're near the bottom and I am optimistic.
Jan '11
Re: Grounds for Optimism
The characteristic of contemporary Western society that distinguishes it from every other, and which most clearly foretells its doom, is the alienation of a large section of our elite from the history and culture that bred it. In no other society have the best and brightest believed that the temples of their gods and the bones of their fathers were things of shame.
Until and unless that situation is reversed no scientific, technological or political breakthrough will matter a whitt. No body can live if the brain is fixated on death.
It is to deposing our self-loathing and ultimately death-seeking elite, and the ideology that it advances, that all of our efforts must be put.
Elect no Democrat anywhere, ever.
May '10
Re: Grounds for Optimism
I find this kind of pessimism to be a fetish more than a thoughtful conclusion.
Dec '10
Re: Grounds for Optimism
Nuclear energy from fission may well be affordable and sustainable. I believe it's both of those things, at least on any time line comprehendable to mortals. It will never be renewable. Conservation of energy, and it's corollary, conservation of mass, will be maintained.
A few months ago I was introduced to the concept of the information singularity. I've thought about it some, but I don't see a point where machines will take over the decisions on the design of subsequent machines. Instead, they'll continue to be stupid but incredibly knowlegeable tools or weapons. When, or rather, if machines ever make the decisions based on whatever machines would base decisions on, investment strategies will be moot.
It's worth noting that defeatists did not end the cold war, rather they perpetuated it. The cold war was won by optimistic people who worked hard to cut through the malaise.
Oct '10
Re: Grounds for Optimism
John Doba
We can dismiss global warming as tosh, but another, far larger environmental problem, I believe, is real: habitat destruction and despeciation. Human numbers continue to grow, towards 10 billion. Market fundamentalists chant their approval, but at some point---barring a transformative technological initiative that outflanks the problem---ecological stresses will become so critical that our own agriculture, on land and sea, is imperiled. The important thinker and writer Jared Diamond has written on this.
Beyond the Malthusian-type risks, there's nuke proliferation via Iran, N. Korea and Pakistan. It WILL happen; the only question is how far out.
Then, there comes the ultimate grounds for pessimism: eschatological considerations. Can humanity endure---forever? The specter of Extinction haunts... · Mar 10 at 5:08am
Developed and middle-income nations, by and large, aren't growing population-wise, though. As the world becomes wealthier, reproduction naturally slows down. That's why people whining about the sustainability of suburbs in America are babbling idiots; other then water, our population just isn't growing fast enough, and water is just as much a problem in urban areas as nonurban.
Sep '10
Re: Grounds for Optimism
John Doba
I'd be inclined to forecast a colossal breakdown of human civilization within the next 50 years---possibly far sooner.
You would not be the first, I would however challenge you on this. I believe every objectively measurable trend in the human condition is improving over time. That is not to say there are not bubbles and upsets in particular areas at particular times but in general over time it is true. There is such a thing as carrying capacity in nature, but there is nothing to make us believe humans are near it. Global population is levelling off, India is exporting rice, imagine that.
Sep '10
Re: Grounds for Optimism
John Doba
Beyond the Malthusian-type risks, there's nuke proliferation via Iran, N. Korea and Pakistan. It WILL happen; the only question is how far out.
Then, there comes the ultimate grounds for pessimism: eschatological considerations. Can humanity endure---forever? The specter of Extinction haunts...
Malthus wrote his famous essay around 1800, that is 211 years ago, what is the big deal about the next 50?
And Nuclear annihilation? The rogue states are dangerous and their arms are worrying, but by any objective measure the risk of nuclear annihilation is less now that it has been for 50 years. A lot fewer nukes overall and a lot friendlier relations with the Russians. Globalization is bringing the world together, interdependence through trade is accomplishing what centuries of diplomacy could not do. It is good to be concerned, I won't fault you for that, but we have been through worse risks.
Sep '10
Re: Grounds for Optimism
I'm with you Jerry, most people take their intuition about scarcity which has been bred into our species for many many many generations and use it as a lens for everything. There is no reason to believe that we will run out of anything in a practical sense. That is not to say that we have an endless supply of everything, but that we can substitute more abundant materials for less abundant ones and we can recycle as necessary. Let the market send its signals and the human species will adapt as necessary.
Feb '11
Re: Grounds for Optimism
Ray Kurzweil points out that technological syntheses have been improving about 1000-fold every 10 years since the industrial revolution. That's an incredible fact---that means that at current rates, and barring some form of civilizational breakdown, technology (meaning not just computers, but in other areas too) could be poised for a million fold improvement in the next 20 years... All I can say is, I sure hope so; without some sort of technological meta-breakthrough, soon, the prospects for civilizational breakdown seem to me quite real: imagine what happens if/when Iran gets its bombs, or Islamist radicals get some bombs into a freight crate. Maybe we can transform the world economy in some way and outflank these persons, and at the same time ease the human-caused stress on natural systems, which is also quite real.