Grim IDF Reality Check
Oh dear God. I may have to go back to bed and pull the covers over my head.
The blog Israel Matzav ("The Situation in Israel") has posted excerpts from interviews with two people who know what they're talking about with regard to Israel's military readiness. And what they have to say isn't pretty.
They are Amos Yadlin, former IAF general and the IDF's outgoing director of military intelligence, and the military historian Dr. Uri Milstein. Here's Yadlin:
“The next conflict, even if it is limited in scale...will be much bigger, much broader, and with many more casualties than we saw in Operation Cast Lead or the Second Lebanon War.”
Such a conflict, predicted the 59-year old Yadlin, will be played out on two or more fronts; moreover, Israel’s enemies “believe that the only way to overcome Israel’s deterrence is through longrange missile fire and improving air defense capabilities.”
Pulling no punches, Yadlin warned that the cutting-edge anti-aircraft system that Syria has purchased from Russia could send the IDF and IAF’s capabilities “back to their status in the 1970s Suez years.”
And here's Milstein:
“I have begun to have my doubts as to whether the IDF is up to the task of defending this country,” Milstein told Arutz 7. “Our enemies have grown stronger, while in some circles, our motivation has fallen. Part of our society is frightened. Even if more people die on their side, they are more willing to sacrifice than we are.”
...Milstein, who has long been critical of the IDF and political establishment's management of Israel's defense, said that little has changed since the Yom Kippur war...Describing Yadlin's straightforward presentation of the troubles Israel is facing as “better late than never,” Milstein said that Yadlin, who was military intelligence chief during the Second Lebanon war, had apparently learned a lesson.
...“During the Second Lebanon War we did not achieve our goals of defeating Hizbullah, and instead they grew stronger. During Operation Cast Lead we attempted to strike a death blow to Hamas, but they just got stronger. So, obviously, the situation will be more difficult next time,” he said. Milstein doubts that the IDF will be able to achieve the goals it needs to during the coming war. “Our enemies have gotten much stronger, and they know how to accept losses much better than we can.”
Milstein is well-known for dismissing out of hand the possibility of negotiated lasting peace with any Arab state. He ascribes what he perceives as the IDF's lack of readiness to the pernicious influence of the left, which is "still convinced that peace will come if we give up Judea and Samaria and the Golan. They probably won't change their minds even if missiles rain down on Tel Aviv." He has a political axe to grind, in other words. But that doesn't mean he isn't right.
Now I'm going to go breathe into a paper bag.
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Comments :
May '10
Re: Grim IDF Reality Check
I suggest that Israel buy a piece of land in Northwestern Australia, and then sell Israel to the Saudis. It's hot and dry and you'd still have Muslim neighbors but at a safe distance across the water. You could say, on further consideration, Moses was probably heading there in the first place, but stopped a little short.
Aug '10
Re: Grim IDF Reality Check
It sounds like the two gentlemen are commenting on Israel's ability to prosecute focussed responses to provocative attacks rather than on her ability to resist an all out attack by any combination of likely aggressors. I hope I'm right. BTW I saw posters for a "concert for Gaza" here in Ireland yesterday-is it possible to raise money for "Gaza" ( my guess is it will go to fund blockade-breaking) without giving succour to Hamas?
Aug '10
Re: Grim IDF Reality Check
I share your anxiety, Judith, but everyone who's paying attention knows that without the U.S. pro-actively defending Israel, there's no way it can exist. It's miraculous - and evidently God's handiwork - that you've survived until now. You're outnumbered and outgunned, particularly since OPEC arose to funnel trillions to the Arab world. But what's worse - as you say - is 'the pernicious influence of the left, which is "still convinced that peace will come if we give up Judea and Samaria and the Golan. They probably won't change their minds even if missiles rain down on Tel Aviv."'
At the moment, we've got your back. But our Left, and the Obama administration, is also undermining you at every turn; which is one reason for the rise of the Tea Parties. Yes, Christians who are awake know that we have a shared destiny, and if you fall, we too may be fatally weakened. The Tea Parties are, more than anything, the spearhead of a spiritual Great Awakening here.
This is God's test, to see who will wake up and smell the coffee, be it American, Saudi, Turkish, European, or Iranian brewed.
Edited on Nov 7, 2010 at 5:58amRe: Grim IDF Reality Check
Judith, I've always been an admirer of Prime Minister Netanyahu, and thought he would have addressed the sort of situation you describe with a robust buildup. Has he begun the process or is he hampered by domestic and/or international considerations?
May '10
Re: Grim IDF Reality Check
Perhaps Israel should consider acquiring a surface to surface capability in naval or land projectiles. Maybe this would reduce the effectiveness of enemy surface to air defenses.
May '10
Re: Grim IDF Reality Check
My concern is not just the existential threats to Israel, but one of a purely personal level too. If the IDF is under-prepared with its troops, then it is more likely to rationally use nuclear weapons (tactical or other) if they are attacked and unable to secure victory with regular military means.
Judith - Do you think that the exemption of Haredi Jews from the IDF is part of the problem? I am reminded of some stories of in WW2 Hassidic Jews believing that prayers and dancing would somehow save them. Alas, sometimes spiritual removal from the impure real world can be deadly. Yeshiva Bochers can't secure your borders without training.
Edited on Nov 7, 2010 at 5:33amJul '10
Re: Grim IDF Reality Check
This is a good link.
May '10
Re: Grim IDF Reality Check
The Six Days War was too short to become a larger conflict. If a war were to break out there involving many nations, my guess is it would probably spill over into a greater conflict. Ideological world alliances are set against each other as they were generations ago. If a World War breaks out, Israel will have allies.
Aug '10
Re: Grim IDF Reality Check
It feels like the US State Department has constructed the large diversion of forced settlements talks ad infinitum in order to divert attention from the inevitable arms buildup being conducted by the Iranian/Syrian/Hezbollah/Hamas forces.
The tunnels get longer, Egypt gets more confused, the missiles get more accurate, and the children get more shredded as they occasionally throw a couple in the pit to get chewed up as show for the papers.
I just hope that Israel is using the show talks as an opportunity to create new defenses and collect more intelligence . They can already show us more of the arms caches, most of the intel has been offered up to the press. To no avail.
Re: Grim IDF Reality Check
Outstripp: Sounds good to me!
Charles: Gaza is Hamas. Any fundraising done on behalf of Gaza will go directly into Hamas's pocket.
River, thank you for your support; and you're perfectly correct: we would not be here without the US, and these are dangerous days indeed.
Dave, I can't find evidence of a buildup. (News items like this one confuse me no end, too.) I believe Bibi is indeed hampered by both domestic and international considerations, although he's capable of flouting both (though without quite the brio of an Ariel Sharon, I expect). I hope the lack of an evident buildup implies a strengthening of less immediately visible defensive and offensive capabilities, but as I say, I can't find any evidence of anything that we can take to the bank.
(...to be continued...)
Re: Grim IDF Reality Check
Michael Labeit, Israel has developed a ground-launched version of the Delilah air-launched cruise missile, which has a 250 km range and a 30 kg explosive warhead (standard). We also test-fired a multi-stage ballistic missile two years ago that's based on the Jericho-III, which has a significantly longer range and larger payload than the Delilah. Wikipedia tells me that the Jericho-III has an "extremely high impact speed for nearby targets, enabling it to avoid any ballistic missile defenses that may develop in the immediate region." Its range and speed are believed to give us nuclear strike capability over an enormous area.
Re: Grim IDF Reality Check
David Kube, that is indeed a very real concern. I continue to suspect that Israel is more reluctant than most people think to deploy a nuclear weapon under any circumstances, but frankly, I can't back up that suspicion with much in the way of evidence; my logic has more to do with Jewish moral and national character and historical memory. I could obviously be colossally wrong on this.
The question of the exemption of yeshiva buchers from service is thorny beyond belief. There is ample resentment that the vast majority of Israelis put their lives at risk to defend the country while the buchers stay home and study. On the other hand, I've been told by soldiers that they'd be more trouble than they're worth. It may well be that we'll need all hands on deck soon, but the number of hands on deck may be less relevant to the outcome of the next big war. (I'm thinking of Stuxnet and similar unconventional forms of attack, but even as I say that, I recall the many doomed iterations of "hey, you don't need infantry if you've got the air force...")
Re: Grim IDF Reality Check
Michael Tee, that link was most interesting; thank you.
Aaron, it would be interesting to learn just how unequivocal American support for us would be in the event of a global crisis -- the extent to which the President would or would not be forced to side firmly with us, his obvious bias notwithstanding -- although I hope with all my heart we never have to find out.
flownover, Yes, the settlements diversion is deeply disturbing. Obama pulled a Don Draper on us: if you don't like what people are saying, change the conversation. The conversation is now all about the settlers, and you're perfectly correct: when we wave our hands and try to point out where the real story lies, nobody's listening.