Great Game Update: Blackmailed by History
I'll say it again--the problem with a neo-Ottoman foreign policy is that it didn't work out the first time. And the more Turkey tries to play it, the more apt is history to repeat itself:
Moscow is gaining more influence through new deals to provide natural gas for Europe and might become the sole supplier in the continent soon, experts say.
Russia’s Gazprom has taken another step forward in a fierce competition to carry natural gas to the European Union after a hot week of deals, share transfers and critical decisions. The EU’s decision last week to “directly” negotiate a treaty with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan was a move that weakened Turkey’s position in both buying and transferring natural gas to Europe, according to Necdet Pamir, a board member at the World Energy Council Turkish National Committee.
Turkey has already signed “unbeneficial” accords regarding Nabucco, the languishing project to carry Caspian gas to Europe, according to Pamir. “Nabucco is an important project for both Europe and Turkey in terms of supply security,” he told the Hürriyet Daily News, adding that current contracts are not in Turkey’s favor.
Note this, as well:
Turkey is a slave to the natural gas lobby, according to the economy minister.
“Even countries that produce natural gas or have resources do not use the fuel as much as Turkey does in electricity production,” Minister Zafer Çağlayan told the press in Ankara during a Wednesday meeting with business representatives from the Aegean province of İzmir.
“Our energy infrastructure depends on oil and natural gas. Some 52 percent of our electricity production is from natural gas. It is not diversified. Turkey has become a slave to the natural gas lobby,” the minister said.
Turkey consumed 39 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2009, according to BP’s traditional report on world energy. Only 2.2 percent of the sum was domestic production.
So, last night Turkey signed a deal with the Turkish Cypriot government (with whom its relations have recently not been great):
On Tuesday, the Greek Cypriot government, which has been at loggerheads with Turkey since its military invasion of north Cyprus in 1974, said drilling had begun in a southeastern offshore block, adjoining a gas field in Israeli waters reputed to be the world's largest find of the past decade.
Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan described the offshore drilling by Cyprus and Turkey's estranged ally Israel as "madness" before signing the deal with the Turkish Cypriots to clear the path for Turkish exploration off northern Cyprus. ...
The row over hydrocarbon reserves erupted as relations between Turkey and Israel broke down over Israel's refusal to apologise for killing Turkish activists aboard a ship carrying aid to Palestinians in Gaza last year.
I'm not a conspiracy theorist or a Marxist, but when economic motives for a state's behavior are staring you in the face like this, you'd have to be insane to overlook them.
- Comment (11)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (3)
Comments:
Jan '11
Re: Great Game Update: Blackmailed by History
So, if they're looking to secure and improve their 'hydrocarbon reserves', what's to stop the Turks/AKP/anybody else from just running roughshod over the whole region, perhaps even in a fit of Neo-Ottoman imperialism? Assad's busy trying to stay in power, Egypt's a mess and is likely to be for some time, and they could promise the Kurds a decent amount of autonomy in return for their oil. And it's not like the yachts of the Saudi Royal Navy are a real threat to anyone.
Aug '11
Re: Great Game Update: Blackmailed by History
I'm totally ignorant about this, but isn't it a bit of a joke that Turkey has signed a deal with its own puppet regime that no one else recognizes?
I'd like to add to your list of projects some kind of an analysis of the Turkey/Cyprus situation as it stands today. I mean, is Turkey's gripe with Greek Cyprus legitimate? Was Turkey just stepping in and protecting the rights of ethnic Turk Cypriots? What about the claim that Turkey had a settlement policy that brought tens of thousands of Turks to beef up the Turkish population (and to replace Turkish Cypriots that packed up and left). If you don't feel like writing about this, where can one go to get reliable background on the subject (apart from Wikipedia).
It just strikes me that Turkey is one country that has benefited enormously from lack of media coverage. Its basically given them carte blanche to do what they want.
Re: Great Game Update: Blackmailed by History
No kidding. Just strikes you, you say?
Aug '11
Re: Great Game Update: Blackmailed by History
A moment of clarity. A very dim one, but nevertheless....
Edited on September 22, 2011 at 2:41pmSep '10
Re: Great Game Update: Blackmailed by History
I have been reading in various pubs that advances in drilling that have been made and will almost certainly be made in the near future will make NG reserves increase by a factor of 5. Extraction costs are estimated to be in the $3 range which equates to $50-$60 oil. In addition fields should be geographically wide spread. We are just beginning to see the early effects of this in the US. Technology may well have given us the solution to the energy problem, but not in the way most had expected. These advances will have profound political repercussions.
Re: Great Game Update: Blackmailed by History
Erdogan seems intent on forgetting everything that the Turks learned so painfully in the years before Mustafa Kemal turned the place around.
May '11
Re: Great Game Update: Blackmailed by History
I'm just pleased as punch with this focus on Turkish gas related developments. It is a boiling cauldron that is being ignored in the US press while they fawn over the latest Palestinian noise making. The seemingly sudden availability of domestic energy sources is hugely important to Turkey. Like Israel, they may be able to become a net exporter over the next 10 years. I hope that such attractive changes in the the Turkish economy do not blind the Turks to the strategic risks. It might even be a chance for cooperation in the region if they can get past the national egos.
-GM
Dec '10
Re: Great Game Update: Blackmailed by History
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
I'm not a conspiracy theorist or a Marxist, but when economic motives for a state's behavior are staring you in the face like this, you'd have to be insane to overlook them. ·
I am missing something:
1) Turkey is absolutely dependent on supplies of natural gas.
2) Israel has found a massive amount of natural gas.
Normally, that ought to mean:
3) Turkey will be very friendly to Israel in order to assure itself of a reliable, nearby source of natural gas.
Instead, we get:
3a) Turkey goes out of its way to create friction with Israel and rattles its saber to threaten Israel's plans to exploit the massive gas find.
How is this an economic motive being played out in an obvious way by a state acting rationally in its own interest?
Dec '10
Re: Great Game Update: Blackmailed by History
Stuart:,In part, this must be viewed based upon traditional maritime law, versus changes that are being agitated for, and this applies all over the world. These canges could weaken Israel's claims to recently discovered deposits, so Turkey could ally itself with Lebanon and have access to the same resources.
One aspect appears to be the traditional projection of straight lines into the ocean that follow the trajectory of land borders. Israel's claims are based upon that tradition. However, all over the world, there are claims being made based upon geological extensions of formations that do not follow the trajectories of land borders, or, really, claims based upon any excuse at hand. It is a mess and it is intentionally so, as it is being driven by those with the most guns and influence.
A simplistic comparison I would make is to that of China's adventures to their east and south, essentially attempting to jump the legitimate claims of other nations. Who is going to stop them? In the Mediterranean, if other entities jump Israelly claims while America is weak, we can probably expect the U.N. to back the Islamic claimants.
Jun '10
Re: Great Game Update: Blackmailed by History
What pubs are you drinking in?
Dec '10
Re: Great Game Update: Blackmailed by History
My understanding is that Lebanon's desire to have its sea territory defined by a latitude line rather than a perpendicular drawn from the border only affects a small portion of the northern extent of Israel's sea claims. The part of Israel's claims that are undisputed contain the vast majority of the Tamar and Leviathan discoveries. How the dispute can be construed to limit Israel's rights in its undisputed waters, or to limit Israel's right to co-develop with Cyprus's internationally recognized government, is what I find incomprehensible.
It just seems to me that Turkey is flailing about for regional dominance in the face of inconvenient facts.