Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
Some conservative friends have called me a RINO because I supported Mike Castle over Christine O’Donnel for Senate in 2008. Yes, Castle was a moderate, perhaps even a left-leaning moderate. But he was clearly more conservative than Chris Coons, who now serves as the junior senator from Delaware. Before O’Donnell defeated Castle in the primary, the betting markets said that Republicans had something like a 70% chance of taking the seat. However, after O’Donnell’s surprising win, the betting markets proclaimed that that chance had dropped to 10%. Clearly, bettors thought that Castle was much more electable than O’Donnell.
This is a trade-off that conservatives commonly face in a primary: (i) elect the moderate and get a high chance of the Republican winning the general , or (ii) elect the conservative and get a low chance of the Republican winning the general.
But conservatives in the 2012 presidential primary don’t seem to face the trade-off. Some recent evidence suggests that Gingrich—the more conservative candidate in my judgment—is just as electable as Romney.
The evidence involves data from the betting web site intrade.com. According to the site, Gingrich’s chance of winning the primary has increased dramatically over the past week or so—from about a 8% to about 34%. During the same time, Romney’s chance has fallen from about 65% to about 45%.
But here’s what’s amazing: During this same period, the chance that Obama wins the general has stayed approximately the same. According to intrade, the chance has remained approximately 50.5% during Gingrich’s dramatic rise. This evidence suggests that Gingrich is just as electable as Romney.
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Jan '11
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
He's just as inconsistent, too.
Oct '10
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
"This is a trade-off that conservatives commonly face in a primary: (i) elect the moderate and get a high chance of the Republican winning the general , or (ii) elect the conservative and get a low chance of the Republican winning the general."
Really? We "commonly" face this dilemma in primaries? Or is this just another example of conventional wisdom run amok? I'm not a political researcher or Michael-Barone-savant so I can't say this with support to back me up, but the notion that conservatives commonly face the trade-off quoted above strikes me as wrong. Or am I?
Edited on Dec 4, 2011 at 8:24pmDec '10
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
I do not understand our side's willingness to vilify a candidate when they may ultimately have to choose between that candidate and Obama, or eat crow or stay home. Why publicly castigate someone who realistically could win, giving succor to our rivals, when you may need to vote for them.
Dec '10
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
I think O'Donnel could have won if the wizards of smart in the pundit class had kept their mealy mouths shut and supported her.
May '10
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
Candidates don't have to represent "middle" voters to win their votes. They just have to be closer to the middle than the other guy.
If Republicans can't manage that against Obama, they're morons.
Sep '10
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
One could also say he's just as unelectable.
Jun '10
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
If Newt just gets America's adulterous hypocrite vote, he's in.
Nov '10
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
"Yes, Castle was a moderate, perhaps even a left-leaning moderate. But he was clearly more conservative than Chris Coons..."
Yeah, that kind of logic just isn't doing it for me any more.
Hate to say it, but maybe a few electoral losses will do the Republican establishment some good. I know, it's always better to win, but we just don't seem to be getting through to Washington any other way.
Mar '11
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
dittoheadadt:
Really? We "commonly" face this dilemma in primaries?
Thanks for challenging that silly assertion. Who says the moderate is more electable? Didn't seem to help Gerald Ford, John Anderson, and John McCain too much. Was Tim channeling David Brooks or something?
Mar '11
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
I think this is more likely the case, yeah. I think we're looking at a GOP Congress in 2012, and four more years of Obama.
Jul '11
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
Four more years of Barry seems quite likely. One thing few people on this sophisticated site of sophistry usually do not mention is that Romney wears magic underwear. Here in Nevada we are quite used to Mormons and their faith is a non-issue but how that plays out elsewhere will be an issue.
The betting analysis does not change because you have Romney and the conservative du jour which the odds have figured in. The answer to beating Obama will not actually come from whichever flawed person the GOP puts forward but from our economy and overall misery index. I strongly feel the power brokers feel they have a malleable fool in Obama and will put their dollars, energy and cattle prod behind him. Just watch the markets, all of them, and you'll know who wins the next election.
Jun '10
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
Ya, like Rove and Murphy.
But, we always have to remember that the GOP establishment are embarrassed to defend some people -- if the MSM thinks those people are dumb or yokels. The leftist elites have veto power.
I love to bring up Whitman and Fiorina as examples of people who these GOP experts were backing and how the results were as bad as O'Donnell and Sharron Angle. Now, surely if these last two had been welcomed into the party (and really what right did they have to denigrate the Republican electorate in those states, anyway), helped with the fundraising and in other ways, these could have been much closer elections. When you have these experts get us the results that happened in California how can we expect these people to advise us at all. Too pathetic for words.
So, Grimaud, your explanation is so correct. By the time the primary is over these pathetic losers need to get on board or go home and let the adults work.
Apr '11
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
Unfortunately, O'Donnell likely alienated the Wizard vote with that infamous campaign ad. (C'mon, someone had to swing at that softball!)
Seriously, though. This dilemma does seem to be the modern trend for Republicans: establishment RINO vs. principled amateur. It's a horrible situation. The conservative message by its very nature requires a certain thoughtfulness and tact to articulate - especially in a soundbite culture dominated by packs of drooling leftists ready to pounce on any opportunity to brand a conservative as a cartoon idiot.
Still, at this point a Republican party lead by the likes of Mike Castle serves no purpose other then to give leftwing policy bipartisan cover. What exactly have we gained electing RINOs? Maybe a slim majority, but then they block any serious cuts or reform and allow Democrats to run against Republican deficits.
Enough! You want big government? That's why there's a Democratic Party. If they don't want you, too bad. Conservatives are sick and tired of being used.
Mar '11
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
Tim Groseclose
Some conservative friends have called me a RINO because I supported Mike Castle over Christine O’Donnel for Senate in 2008.
I'd agree with your friends.
I supported Ms O'Donnel (I kinda like witches) -- is it better to have a Rino or a D? The end result is the same -- over the fiscal cliff into insolvency.
I think the rising support for Newt among the Tea Party is a sign of increasing sophistication in accepting a less-than-ideal (aka less conservative) candidate -- or maybe a simple recognition that the best conservatives are not running and we have to go with the best of who we have.
I'd agree that Newt is somewhat more conservative than Mr Romney and has at least as good a chance of winning as Mr Romney. Unlike the defeatists on Ricochet, I think Newt has a good chance of beating the Anointed One with sharp-creased pants -- even Mr Brooks is having second thoughts.
If nothing else, the debates will be more fun.
Edited on Dec 5, 2011 at 3:41amRe: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
I would like to think the same thing. But her conduct as a candidate was erratic and even downright weird, and her campaign ads were awful.
Sep '10
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
If Romney is nominated you are faced with two possibilities neither of which is attractive. At least with Newt there is a slim chance he may get elected and prove to be adequate for the task at hand.
Oct '10
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
Cutlass
Still, at this point a Republican party lead by the likes of Mike Castle serves no purpose other then to give leftwing policy bipartisan cover. What exactly have we gained electing RINOs? Maybe a slim majority, but then they block any serious cuts or reform and allow Democrats to run against Republican deficits.
Beautiful, (wo)man! Deserved more than just a "Like."
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
Douglas
Was Tim channeling David Brooks or something? · Dec 4 at 9:56p
m
Ouch. That hurts. In my defense, I think I'm to the right of Ann Coulter on this one. See here.
Jun '10
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
Every day now, it seems, another super pundit is knocking Gingrich. Today it is Michael Barone. Yesterday, George Will viscerated the former Speaker. Yet I juxtapose these hyper critical rants with what I see and hear out of Gingrich's own mouth when in debates or interviews on Hannity or the Huckabee Forum this last weekend and I can't help but scratch my head. Who am I to believe, the wise guys or my own lying eyes? The man answers every question honestly and reasonably and from a conservative value system. He has baggage and has deflected every question about that baggage. He has been there before and performed successfully. He knows his way around Washington.I have always supported the outsider because the politicians inside the beltway have so irritated me with their irresponsibity. But there is something to be said for choosing someone who can immediately start his engine and get changes going. I also am impressed that Gingrich hasn't climbed by bashing his fellow candidates. Ron Paul went too far in that ad. When this whole thing is over, we still need to be left with a candidate that hasn't been torn asunder
May '10
Re: Gingrich is just as Electable as Romney: Some Evidence
Tim Groseclose
According to intrade....
Actually, I have a question about this. I keep seeing people cite this as as source supposedly "proving" that so in so is "inevitable" or "electable". I'm personally very unfamiliar with the site, but from what I can tell, it's simply a gambling venue for political elections. How is this exactly a viable source for judging anything? I don't really see it as such other than measuring the 'conventional wisdom' of the people who participate on the site. Perhaps I'm missing something, so please explain.