Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
Mollie Hemingway, Ed. ·
Jan 19 at 8:22am
Newt Gingrich's debate performance earlier this week helped him take the lead from Mitt Romney in the latest Rasmussen poll. Prior to the debate, Gingrich had 21 percent to Romney's 35%. Now?
Gingrich......33%
Romney......31%
Paul............15%
Santorum....11%
Perry............2%
Other............1%
Not Sure.......6%
Campaign watcher say we should get ready for some additional ugliness in South Carolina before Saturday's vote. Particularly from the SuperPACs. Not that South Carolina needs any help -- it has earned its dirty political reputation honestly. Let's get ready to rumble!
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Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
Is anyone listening to this Perry speech? It's by far the best speech I've heard him give. He's dropping out, endorsing Gingrich, talking about our country's problems, explaining Christian teachings on forgiveness, etc.
Dec '10
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
He's always best when it doesn't count.
May '10
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
Saturday should be fun around here. Some Ron Paul supporter caused a four-mile traffic jam during rush hour this morning in Greenville by inflating a hot air ballon right next to eight lanes of traffic on I-85. I don't think that counts as dirty politics, but it's not likely to get him in the good graces of Upstate commuters.
Jul '10
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
Now that Newt's desire for an "open marriage" is out in the open, I wonder how women will react.
Aug '10
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
Wow! Perry's endorsement is huge for Newt. His 2% will clearly be the difference maker (especially since Santorum will probably get half of Perry's potential voters).
Dec '10
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
It will likely do more with fence sitters than with those already decided. SC hasn't made up its mind yet, but Romney is probably close to capped.
May '10
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
Anecdotally, it seems a lot of people are recoiling from the news. It is one thing to say, broadly speaking, Newt has had personal issues in his past and two former marriages. It is quite another thing to paint such a vivid picture of a man asking his wife for an open marriage.
If ever he had an opportunity, now is the time for Santorum to be the non-Rom.
Dec '10
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
Here's the speech.
Aug '10
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
Pat in Obamaland
Anecdotally, it seems a lot of people are recoiling from the news. It is one thing to say, broadly speaking, Newt has had personal issues in his past and two former marriages. It is quite another thing to paint such a vivid picture of a man asking his wife for an open marriage.
If ever he had an opportunity, now is the time for Santorum to be the non-Rom. · Jan 19 at 9:23am
Santorum's probem is that he is Tim Pawlenty without the executive experience (and we all know how Pawlenty's campaign went!).
Jun '10
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
Take a look at Real Clear Politics today. Five SC polls are reported: Insider Advantage has it Gingrich +3, Rassmusen Gingrich +2, PPP Gingrich +7; on the other hand, Politico has Romney +7 and NCC has Romney +10.
I suppose this means that it's very fluid. And, of course, this doesn't take Perry's withdrawal into account.
This is going to be even more interesting than Iowa.
Edited on Jan 19 at 9:54amJan '12
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
The King Prawn
It will likely do more with fence sitters than with those already decided. SC hasn't made up its mind yet, but Romney is probably close to capped. · Jan 19 at 9:18am
I've been hearing the "Romney has a hard vote cap" for a while... and it seems more and more to not be the case.
That being said, there are a lot of people desperate to find somebody other than him... sometimes searching a bit too desperately, but there you go. The question is how well Gingrich and/or Santorum can convince people that, in spite of their own shortcomings, they're worth having over Romney.
The interesting wild card will be how Ron Paul does going forward - I've been using his support levels as a proxy for the "protest vote" - while he has his die-hards, most Paul voters seem to be casting the proverbial "None Of The Above" ballot.
Apr '11
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
tabula rasa: Take a look at Real Clear Politics today. Five SC polls are reported: Insider Advantage has it Gingrich +3, Rassmusen Gingrich +2, PPP Gingrich +7; on the other hand, Politico has Romney +7 and NCC has Romney +10.
I suppose this means that it's very fluid. And, of course, this doesn't take Perry's withdrawal into account.
This is going to be even more interesting than Iowa. · Jan 19 at 9:53am
Edited on Jan 19 at 09:54 am
Nationally, Gallup is still showing no big swing toward Gingrich, with two full post-debate nights of polling. Romney still up by 16, which surprises me.
Dec '10
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
This is going to be the first contest that will give a read on the shape of the rest of the race for the nomination. The contest has finally boiled down to Romney, Paul and two not-Romney-not-Pauls. The question in SC and FL is whether the supporters of Gingrich and Santorum are a real not-Romney-not-Paul bloc, or whether some significant portion of those voters would gravitate to Romney if their first choice dropped out.
In addition to Perry dropping out and endorsing Newt, there's also the news that Romney did not, in fact, win in Iowa and thus isn't the historic first GOP non-incumbent to win both Iowa and NH. That adds to the fluidity of the SC primary. I am eager to see how it turns out, and whether Newt really has the momentum to overtake Romney.
Dec '10
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
The King Prawn
It will likely do more with fence sitters than with those already decided. SC hasn't made up its mind yet, but Romney is probably close to capped. · Jan 19 at 9:18am
Looking at the RealClearPolitics numbers (thanks, tabula rasa!), Perry's few percent added to Newt's support would put him ahead of Romney in SC.
It's hard to tell if Romney's support is capped, but he seems to be down in SC from his high-water mark there of 37 percent, and he's not the candidate with the momentum at this moment.
Feb '11
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
I must say, I have ceased to understand any of this. There is no way Newt Gingrich can or should be the nominee, let alone serve as president. His policies are all over the map and so is his personality. His ego is out of control and his personal baggage is beyond repair for much of the electorate. His attacks on Romney's wealth show him to be desperate, only because he cannot really believe what he is saying.
I have to question the judgement of anyone who seriously supports him - certainly any public figure who endorses him.
So people must really really not want Romney to even consider Gingrich.
So why isn't everyone lining up behind Santorum? This seems like the easiest call imaginable.
As I say, I obviously don't understand anything.
Edited on Jan 19 at 10:32amMay '10
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
Israel P.: I must say, I have ceased to understand any of this. There is no way Newt Gingrich can or should be the nominee, let alone serve as president. His policies are all over the map and so is his personality. His ego is out of control and his personal baggage is beyond repair for much of the electorate. His attacks on Romney's wealth show him to be desperate, only because he cannot really believe what he is saying.
I have to question the judgement of anyone who seriously supports him - certainly any public figure who endorses him.
So people must really really not want Romney to even consider Gingrich.
So why isn't everyone lining up behind Santorum? This seems like the easiest call imaginable.
As I say, I obviously don't understand anything. · Jan 19 at 10:28am
Edited on Jan 19 at 10:32 am
Join the club. Very little of this primary season has made much sense to me.
Jan '11
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
Considering how Newt's ex-wife had to have plotted to do the most damage possible, I no longer wonder why he wanted out of the relationship. I would think that a spouse who behaves vindictively and maliciously after the separation, was much the same before it. Malice isn't a spontaneous thing, it takes nurturing and cultivation, and it flourishes best in certain personalities.
I count Newt unlucky in love - he fell for someone who wasn't what she appeared to be. Probably not the first time that's ever happened.
Makes me want to send his campaign another check.
Edited on Jan 19 at 11:10amDec '10
Re: Gingrich Takes The Lead in South Carolina
Anon: Considering how Newt's ex-wife had to have plotted to do the most damage possible, I no longer wonder why he wanted out of the relationship. I would think that a spouse who behaved vindictively and maliciously after the separation, was much the same before it. Malice isn't a spontaneous thing, it takes nurturing, and cultivation, and it flourishes best in certain personalities.
I count Newt unlucky in love - he fell for someone who wasn't what she appeared to be. Probably not the first time that's ever happened.
Makes me want to send his campaign another check. · Jan 19 at 11:09am
His ex-wife has been hoping for this moment since the 1990s.