Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
A new WSJ/NBC News survey shows that Newt Gingrich has cinched an enormous lead in support over Mitt Romney among GOP voters.
With less than three weeks before the first votes are cast in Iowa, Republicans give the former House speaker the most commanding lead of any candidate this year: He has 40% support among likely GOP voters, compared with 23% for Mr. Romney. All of the other Republican candidates fell short of 10% support in the poll.
However, when matched up against President Obama, voters prefer Obama to Romney by only a slight margin, whereas Gingrich is shown to be severely wanting in support among the general electorate.
The poll found that a Romney-Obama election would be exceedingly tight, with 47% supporting the president and 45% for Mr. Romney. Mr. Obama would beat Mr. Gingrich by a wider margin, 51% to 40%, the poll found.
Should Gingrich secure the Republican nomination, his most difficult and crucial challenge will be to eke out just enough support among independents and Hispanics to carry the general.
[L]arge majorities of two of the country's fastest-growing voting blocs—independents and Hispanics—say they wouldn't vote for Mr. Gingrich. President George W. Bush, by comparison, won 40% or more of the Hispanic vote in 2004.
Mr. Gingrich "is a candidate who, for the moment, clearly has a ceiling," said Mr. Hart, the pollster. "Voters have an opinion, and that opinion, outside of this small segment of the Republican Party, is overwhelmingly negative."
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May '10
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
Campaigning for the favor of primary voters is very different from campaigning for the favor of the general electorate. Primaries are driven by committed Republicans or Democrats, whereas the main election is driven by all the people who don't care enough about politics to participate in primaries.
Present measures tell us little about how popular any of our candidates would be in the main election. Campaign ads will shift in focus, and most voters have short memories for such things.
Aug '11
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
Newt has issues within his own party, yet he has overcome them. There is no reason to assume that he cannot do the same in the general election with hispanics and independents. Newt has a positive message and Obama has a difficult record. Much as the President would like to avoid it, his record remains. I think Newt's positive message will trump Obama's punitive, class envy rhetoric. One sees sunny days ahead while the other sees clouds and blames the rich. Unless things improve dramatically, Obama is in big trouble.
Jun '10
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
The composition of the electorate keeps changing too. The elderly drop off (in the normal way) and young people take their place. That's why I don't think Newt's divorces matter much anymore. For a lot of the younger people: "Newt's on his third marriage? Reminds me of my dad. I should call Dad...."
Edited on Dec 14, 2011 at 9:49amDec '11
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
Depends on which Newt they see. Do they see the angry hardfighting conservative congressional machine? Or do they see the happy policy advocate who has spent 12 years trying to push for and advocate the areas of commonality between the parties?
Aug '11
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
To me, the very fact that he has the lead in the GOP race says he's electable. It's way too early to conclude anything else.
EDIT: Or, what Aaron Miller said above.
Edited on Dec 14, 2011 at 9:55amMay '10
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
Shall we review the circumstances here?
I can't remember... Was President GHW Bush re-elected or was that President Tsongas' first term?
Edited on Dec 14, 2011 at 10:17amNov '11
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
Hmmm? Maybe we should be asking , "Who's least unelectable?"
Here's my bleak prognostication:
It doesn't matter which Republican is least unelectable because Obama will win a second term . . . starting in 2016.
After the Eurozone collapses, China stalls, the Arab/Islamic world achieves a chaotic equilibrium, Japan finally throws in the towel, little wars of convenience break out here, there, and everywhere (e.g., Turkey grabs Cyprus, China grabs Formosa, Russia grabs whatever's handy, etc.), a couple of nuclear devices get detonated, and the global economy contracts twenty-five or thirty percent or more, . . . after all that, whichever Republican will have been unfortunate enough to have gotten himself elected president in 2012 will become history's scapegoat.
The Republican president and his short-lived congressional majority will be blamed for the all-out misery they can't prevent and can't much mitigate.
In 2016, Obama will win his second term, with a slogan something like: "Hope Returns! Now Let's Finish What We Started."
And they will.
Obamacare will be the least of our worries.
With any luck, I'll be dead by then.
Edited on Dec 14, 2011 at 10:27amJan '11
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
This is an outlier poll. Four other polls from the same period show the gap being between 6-12 points, not 17. Romney has actually been closing the gap between him and Gingrich.
Mar '11
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
Results in Iowa and NH and SC will lead the national polls, not the other way around.
Jul '10
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
Where the heck did Huntsman find that 5%? That's the big news to me. A 0% to 5% jump is much more impressive to me than a 13% to 40% jump, especially since next to nobody who was supporting Cain got on the Huntsman boat when Cain withdrew.
I guess it's plausible to say that Romney's 5% drop went to Huntsman, but why? Apart from the $10,000 bet, there were no big gaffes or missteps on his part. Is Huntsman doing something differently that pundits (and the rest of us, apparently) aren't noticing?
Edited on Dec 14, 2011 at 10:53amApr '11
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
Being divorced doesn't matter. Saying you cheated on your wife because you were so consumed by patriotism does. If saying that you had to make a family values speech because nobody else could, while personally living those values doesn't matter, reminds the voter of his father, it's likely not in a good way. The younger electorate are more, not less, likely to be put off by his claims that women shouldn't serve on the front line because they get infections. Youth morality is different, and kind of confused, but it's not a non-judgmental generation.
Even more problematically, they are more likely to get their news through comedy, and Gingrich is a fount of colorful, memorable, punchlines. I imagine Troy did not write about male soldiers being "little piglets" "biologically destined to go out and hunt giraffes".
Apr '11
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
I honestly have no idea why we get so many Ricochet posts that quote polls without going to RCP or a similar site and checking for this. Worse, at least half of those posts tend to be PPP polls. I'm not sure that I find the robustness of the gap closing as strong as you do (although it does seem to be there in Iowa), but that's relatively subjective.
Jun '10
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
James Of England
Being divorced doesn't matter. Saying you cheated on your wife because you were so consumed by patriotism does. If saying that you had to make a family values speech because nobody else could, while personally living those values doesn't matter, reminds the voter of his father, it's likely not in a good way. The younger electorate are more, not less, likely to be put off by his claims that women shouldn't serve on the front line because they get infections. Youth morality is different, and kind of confused, but it's not a non-judgmental generation......
Many mischaracterize the context of Newt's infection comment, about women in prolonged combat. The infection reason was more like reason number seven, or eight--not reason number one. It also happens to be true. But that's what you get if you read the American mainstream press, either new or archival. They hated Newt, and that's certainly reflected it in their coverage.
Apr '11
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
etoiledunord
James OfEngland
Being divorced doesnt matter. Saying you cheated on your wife because you were so consumed by patriotism does. If saying that you had to make a family values speech because nobody else could, while personally living those values doesn't matter, reminds the voter of his father, it's likely not in a good way. The younger electorate are more, not less, likely to be put off by his claims that women shouldn't serve on the front line because they get infections. Youth morality is different, and kind of confused, but it's not a non-judgmental generation......
Many mischaracterize the context of Newt's infection comment, about women in prolonged combat. The infection reason was more like reason number seven, or eight--not reason number one. It also happens to be true. But that's what you get if you read the American mainstream press, either new or archival. They hated Newt, and that's certainly reflected it in their coverage. ·
See my point about that generation getting its news from comedy shows. It's my impression, though, that they eventually hated Newt like FOX hates OWS. It's an endlessly entertaining hate, not fear.
Apr '11
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
etoiledunord
Many mischaracterize the context of Newt's infection comment, about women in prolonged combat. The infection reason was more like reason number seven, or eight--not reason number one. It also happens to be true. But that's what you get if you read the American mainstream press, either new or archival. They hated Newt, and that's certainly reflected it in their coverage. · Dec 14 at 12:20pm
Looking it up, I don't think this is true. The lecture is here (html link thing isn't working for me): http://terrenceberres.com/ginren01.html
The reasons given are infection and upper body strength, given about the same weight. The infection argument is supported by the claim that "men are basically little piglets, you drop them in the ditch, they roll around in it, doesn't matter, you know. These things are very real." I think it's the last sentence that particularly enhances its Daily Show appeal.
Then he moves on to Spielberg's Jurassic Park as a paradigmatic example of free market entrepreneurialism, an example of "tiny companies, start-ups in garages, people in back rooms." I gather he didn't have Rob Long advising him.
Apr '11
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
Humza Ahmad: Where the heck did Huntsman find that 5%? That's the big news to me. A 0% to 5% jump is much more impressive to me than a 13% to 40% jump, especially since next to nobody who was supporting Cain got on the Huntsman boat when Cain withdrew.
I guess it's plausible to say that Romney's 5% drop went to Huntsman, but why? Apart from the $10,000 bet, there were no big gaffes or missteps on his part. Is Huntsman doing something differently that pundits (and the rest of us, apparently) aren't noticing? ·
5% is an almost unique outlier from all polls so far; subsequent polls include the other time he has hit 5%, a 2%, and another 2%. He got to 4% three times in what I'd guess to be 100 polls, in June, August, and September. He's always been above the 1-2% threshold required for debates, with the exception of the last one. At a 271 registered voter poll size, though, which is what this poll used, you kind of expect to get some exciting numbers. They got 13 voters rather than the expected 5-8.
Jul '10
Re: Gingrich Grabs Huge Lead Over Romney, But Is He Electable?
As we all know from these horse race polls, they are immutable.
The media is trying to convince voters of the electability argument again.
See, Romney will lose by only two points!