File this under "massively important international stories about which you're not hearing a word because foreign journalism is dead, so forget it unless Al Jazeera decides it's important."

The world is being tested--again--to see whether it means "never again"--again. As we know from Rwanda, among many other places, what that has in fact meant is, "Well, sometimes."

From everything we know, historically, about the warning signs of an impending genocide, the warnings are all over the Ivory Coast

A flare up of political violence following the vote prompted Francis Deng, the U.N. special envoy on the prevention of genocide, to warn that the situation could get out of control in the Ivory Coast.

"We remain gravely concerned about the possibility of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and ethnic cleansing in the Ivory Coast," he said in a statement.

This was reported in January:

UNITED NATIONS, Jan 20, 2011 (IPS) - United Nations officials said they were "gravely concerned" Wednesday that the current political deadlock over recent presidential elections in Cote d'Ivoire could ultimately lead to genocide, as both sides of the conflict consolidated their forces.

Addressing reporters at the U.N. headquarters in New York, the Secretary-General's Special Advisors on the Prevention of Genocide and the Responsibility to Protect said "urgent action" was needed to prevent further loss of life, and failure to do so could push the West African nation to the "brink of destruction". 

"We are disturbed by allegations that the armed forces and militia groups that back opposing camps in the current political crisis are recruiting and arming ethnic groups allied to each camp," advisors Francis Deng and Edward Luck said in a joint statement. 

"We are also deeply troubled by reports of continuing hate speech that appears to be aimed at inciting violent attacks against particular ethnic and national groups," they said. 

"We urge all parties in Cote d'Ivoire to refrain from inflammatory speech that incites hatred and violence. Those responsible for committing atrocities or their incitement will be held accountable."

I challenge you to find more recent information about this. I've heard that people on the ground are saying this is what Rwanda looked like. Me, I can't tell--I'm not there, and there's just nothing in the news about it.

There are, however, warnings that Easter Bunnies might get pricey. Glad we've got our priorities straight.

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Bryan G. Stephens
Joined
May '10
Bryan G. Stephens

Clarie,

I am quite upset about any genocide anywhere. Thank you for sharing this information.

What suggested course of action by the United States should I get behind that you think would be most effective in stopping this tragedy?

Claire Berlinski, Ed.

Bryan G. Stephens: Clarie,

I am quite upset about any genocide anywhere. Thank you for sharing this information.

What suggested course of action by the United States should I get behind that you think would be most effective in stopping this tragedy? · Feb 13 at 1:36pm

I wish I knew. It's hard to suggest policy solutions when you can't find enough in-depth news to understand what's going on. And even if I could find it, I'd be very hesitant to pronounce upon it, having never set foot in that part of the world. All I know is that a warning of impending genocide is a deeply serious thing--and if anyone knows where to look to find out more, I'd like to know. 

Ottoman Umpire
Joined
May '10
Ottoman Umpire

NPR has something on it today.

Michael Labeit
Joined
May '10
Michael Labeit

Bad for Ivory Coasters. Good for cocoa traders.


Joined
Jul '10
Palaeologus

Here are the findings from a Human Rights Watch investigation (not that recent Late Jan).

This is from the AP, the title might not suggest it's about the Ivory Coast, but it is.


Joined
Jul '10
Your Grace

I read a book a few years ago by Robert Kaplan called "The Coming Anarchy" that predicted tribal conflicts would become more common with time. The Dark Continent, he said, was returning to the state it was in before European imperialism brought it civilization. He predicted that the West would rapidly disengage -- the lack of news from there is an early marker -- because of the spreading anarchy. Among other things, airlines will stop flying to Africa for fear their planes will be held for ransom. I look forward to seeing what the multiculturalists make of the return to nature. A way will be found to blame the West. That you can count on.

FX Meaney
Joined
Feb '11
Francis X

This appears to a Nigeria-type situation in which Muslims are migrating in from the north.  According to the CIA World Factbook, Muslims now outnumber Christians considerably.  Why the Christian incumbent won't concede, I don't know, but the threat of violence undoubtedly comes from the newcomers, as was the case several years ago when violence erupted. 

Both the incumbent and the apparent successful challenger are quite well educated.  Ivory Coast was econonomically successful and peaceful until recently and the natives apparently don't want to cede control to the newcomers.


Joined
Jan '11
Margaret Ball

I've been expecting something dreadful in Ivory Coast ever since Gbagbo refused to step down after the election in November. What's already happening is bad enough, but it seems likely that at some point it'll turn into all-out war.  I don't know what any of us can do about it, though. Do you have some ideas, Claire?

flownover
Joined
Aug '10
flownover

A wealth of ideas amidst a paucity of information. Hey that was the UN being quoted ! That means it's either too late, a lie, or a guess. Somebody call Dallaire for a quote . Don Cheadle maybe ? First time around there was a radio story every day. Any ideas on broadcasting this story to the dulled senses of public. Asking for action on behalf of others is lazy, so what do we do ? Specifically, what should we be asking the people at State, the leaders and displaced leaders of the countries involved, and the people . Get your brother to ask Rice.

King Banaian, Guest Contributor

I haven't found anything yet, but the last time this happened it was the French who stepped in, as they often have in African genocidal breakouts.  So for those of you who read French, I'd scour both the French press (wire services like AFP) and those in Francophone Africa to learn more.  

There is a UN mission there from the 2002 violence, but I would expect them to do nothing. They are hoping the African Union will get Gbagbo to leave quietly.  Here's the latest piece I found (dated Thursday.)


Joined
Jul '10
Palaeologus
King Banaian, Guest Contributor: I haven't found anything yet, but the last time this happened it was the French who stepped in, as they often have in African genocidal breakouts. 

Here's a Gbagbo isn't the problem & the U.N. isn't the solution piece that says Sarkozy is driving the anti-Gbagbo international reaction.

Money quotes:

I blame the French government and certain powerful individuals carrying the label of the United Nations for drowning-out the authentic African voices of reason and measured diplomacy. They are the ones behind Candidate Ouatarra’s position of escalating this crisis towards military confrontation. Some of them masterminded this crisis by illegally certifying the electoral process to be free and fair without verifiable basis.

Notwithstanding all the threats of military intervention by an ECOWAS/AU force, the Security Council after a number of meetings has stopped short of authorizing such a force. The UNSC is divided because Russia and China are unwilling to join their hawkish colleagues among the five permanent members and would veto any such enterprise.

Seems like claptrap to me, but it's an alternative view.

CJRun
Joined
Dec '10
CJRun

 For me, foreign journalism is not dead; after all, I have Claire Berlinski!  For my birthday present, I have asked for Michael Totten's new book, on Lebanon.

To me, the issue is getting past the editors, back home.  I always felt that John Burns was a great journalist on foreign affairs, and his reporting from Iraq for the NYT was excellent.  However, his reporting rarely made it onto the actual, print pages of the NYT, as his work was often spiked, past the web site.

I remember Mr. Burns, from when I was a young child, in Asia.  I liked him then, too.

Today, I received this, from my Mom (she knows I cancelled my New Yorker subscription, years ago) and found it banal, until the very end.  There was my old friend, Mr. Burns. (the underlined names are other family friends, from back when we llived in Asia).  The only interesting thing in the entire piece, to me, was Mr. Burns comments.  Foreign journalism is not dead; it is just kept in isolation.

Aaron Miller
Joined
May '10
Aaron Miller

Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

This was reported in January:

"We are also deeply troubled by reports of continuing hate speech that appears to be aimed at inciting violent attacks against particular ethnic and national groups," they said.

Coming from the U.N., this is utterly meaningless.

Is there a possibility that we'll see a war without genocide?

I'm still not certain why Bill Clinton intervened in Bosnia (emphasis on Clinton). War in that region led to World War before, so perhaps that's it. Aside from that, I'm not sure what was special enough about that situation to merit American troops in Democrats' minds when so many other genocides were watched from afar.

My point is that perhaps Obama would intervene in the Ivory Coast. I don't believe Obama is anti-war.

I don't object to the U.S. taking on the role of policing the world (when our debt isn't set to strangle us). But Congress should only make such efforts if it is the will of the majority of American voters. I have no idea where the majority stands on risking our soldiers and spending our taxes on interventions like this.

Cas Balicki
Joined
Jun '10
Cas Balicki
Michael Labeit: Bad for Ivory Coasters. Good for cocoa traders. · Feb 13 at 2:03pm

Please instruct us ignorant peasants in how it is possible for chaos to benefit cocoa traders in particular, or agricultural trade in general. Because if chaos is beneficial to agriculture, maybe, we could start a war or something with Iowa.

Andrea Ryan
Joined
May '10
Andrea Ryan

I've read all the links posted, but am still trying to understand who the parties are.  Is it that the natives (at least some Christians) are at risk of genocide by the predominantly Muslim immigrants?

Palaeologus: This is from the AP, the title might not suggest it's about the Ivory Coast, but it is.

Here is an excerpt from Palaeologus' article:

"Ivory Coast was divided into a rebel-controlled north and a loyalist south by a 2002-2003 civil war. The country was officially reunited in a 2007 peace deal, but the long-delayed presidential election was intended to help reunify the nation. Instead, the U.N. says at least 260 people have been killed in violence since the vote."

I'm not clear on who the different parties are.


Joined
Jul '10
Palaeologus

Aaron Miller

Is there a possibility that we'll see a war without genocide?

That's a good question, I've read a little (very little) about the situation in Ivory Coast. Who might be conducting the genocide against whom? In Rwanda it was the Hutus v. Tutsis as I recall, but I don't even know the ethnic players here.

Aaron Miller: I'm still not certain why Bill Clinton intervened in Bosnia (emphasis on Clinton).

Kosovo, not Bosnia, Aaron.

Michael Labeit
Joined
May '10
Michael Labeit

Andrea Ryan: I've read all the links posted, but am still trying to understand who the parties are.  Is it that the natives (at least some Christians) are at risk of genocide by the predominantly Muslim immigrants?

Palaeologus: This is from the AP, the title might not suggest it's about the Ivory Coast, but it is.

Here is an excerpt from Palaeologus' article:

"Ivory Coast was divided into a rebel-controlled north and a loyalist south by a 2002-2003 civil war. The country was officially reunited in a 2007 peace deal, but the long-delayed presidential election was intended to help reunify the nation. Instead, the U.N. says at least 260 people have been killed in violence since the vote."

I'm not clear on who the different parties are. 

Its similar to Nigeria. Angry Muslims in the north think the south is insufficiently Islamic.


Joined
Jul '10
Palaeologus

Andrea Ryan: I've read all the links posted, but am still trying to understand who the parties are.  Is it that the natives (at least some Christians) are at risk of genocide by the predominantly Muslim immigrants?

I'm not clear on who the different parties are. · Feb 13 at 4:52pm

You and me both, Andrea. I think, though, that Gbagbo represents the Christian south. I also think that he's probably the bad guy, but... I'm awfully ignorant of the history here. It seems that he has his own Hitler Youth-type thugs

Here's another piece, from CBN, that suggests I might have it wrong.

Sorry to be so unclear, I just don't know squat about Ivory Coast.

katievs
Joined
May '10
katievs

I worry that Islamic aggression tends to be characterized by a secular media as "inter-religious violence."

Andrea Ryan
Joined
May '10
Andrea Ryan

Thank you, Michael and Palaeologus.  What the heck was that nickname again?  Gus?  I'm going to go read to my children then come back and read the other articles you linked to.


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