GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
The Republican Party cannot continue to ignore libertarians. If the party won't support limited government and won't nominate candidates with a track record of limiting government - then swing voters won't vote Republican. I believe that the GOP establishment still won't get it. It'll take more losses and a change of Republican Party leadership.
As we've perused last week's election returns, we'd noticed a number of races where Libertarian candidates appear to have played spoiler for Republicans—certainly, more than we're accustomed to. While we haven't run a comparison with prior cycles, we've identified no fewer than nine contests in 2012 where the Libertarian received more votes than the difference between the Democratic and Republican candidates. What's more, none of these involved the typical 1 or maybe 2 percent you ordinarily expect a Lib to garner: Looking at the three-way vote, all but one were over 3 percent, and three took 6 percent or more, with a high of 6.5 percent in the Montana Senate race. These definitely seem like unusually high figures.
So what's going on here? I wouldn't want to speculate too much based on this limited data set. But I could easily believe that a growing proportion of conservative-leaning voters are too disgusted with the GOP to pull the Republican lever, but who won't vote for Democrats either, are choosing a third option and going Libertarian instead. This thesis dovetails with something else we saw this year: independents generally leaning more rightward simply because at least some former Republicans are now refusing to identify with their old party. It's not much of a stretch to imagine that some folks like that don't want to vote for their old party either.
Listening RNC?
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Comments:
May '12
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
I agree. I think there is a lot of opportunity to appeal to libertarians by reducing government, emphasizing the 10th Amendment. All things that should be core planks of the republican party, but then get immediately forgotten when the lights come on.
I think there are a lot of libertarian minded folks in the Tea Party ranks that would support republicans enthusiastically if they actually had a spine to cut government and not just squabble about reducing how fast it grows.
Apr '11
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
Well said. The Cato Institute did a series of polls of Tea Party membership. It's about half social conservatives and half libertarians.
The Tea Party is the model for a new Big Tent coalition that includes libertarian voters.
Jul '11
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
It's hard, maybe impossible, to appeal to both working class swing voters and libertarians.
Jun '10
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
Well, um...pardon me, but Libertarians and conservatives in the Tea Party movement who stayed away from the polls, did not vote for the Romney/Ryan ticket, don't get any measure of respect from me. I received an email announcement weeks prior to the election that a Tea Party News Network was established. A few days later they chose: "None of the above" as their Presidential endorsement. I unsubscribed and was given the opportunity to explain why I was unsubscribing. I told them there non-endorsement was irresponsible, reckless and naive and they could get stuffed. Had there not been a character limit, I would have written more.
Was Romney the ideal candidate? Perhaps not. But last time I checked Ronald Reagan was dead and for my money Romney was the candidate with the right set of values and vision and with the right kind of conservative for a Vice-President who together could have applied the brakes before the impending fiscal train wreck.
All this carping about the Romney ticket not adequately reaching out to Libertarians and inflexible Tea Party folks infuriates me. Let the ruin of the economy and millions of Americans' lives be on your heads.
Edited on November 16, 2012 at 5:22amJun '10
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
Tea Party and Libertarian hold-outs who didn't vote for Romney/Ryan weren't paying attention to the late, great Andrew Breitbart. Shame on them. Watch the video here.
Jun '10
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
BrentB67: I agree. I think there is a lot of opportunity to appeal to libertarians by reducing government, emphasizing the 10th Amendment. All things that should be core planks of the republican party, but then get immediately forgotten when the lights come on.
I think there are a lot of libertarian minded folks in the Tea Party ranks that would support republicans enthusiastically if they actually had a spine to cut government and not just squabble about reducing how fast it grows. · 55 minutes ago
Well, you can't reduce the size of government unless you get some like-minded folks in positions of power. Non-voting Libertarians and Tea Party hold-outs just dealt a severe blow to all the Tea Party folks that were elected to Congress in 2010. Put the scissors away and stop cutting off your noses to spite your faces.
Apr '11
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
Brian Watt: [...] Libertarians and conservatives in the Tea Party movement who stayed away from the polls, did not vote for the Romney/Ryan ticket, don't get any measure of respect from me. [...]
All this carping about the Romney ticket not adequately reaching out to Libertarians and inflexible Tea Party folks infuriates me. Let the ruin of the economy and millions of Americans lives be on your heads.
Yeah, and the RNC and country club conservative establishment are flexible and inclusive. Not. Remember the brutish way the establishment treated Tea Party and libertarian Republicans at the convention.
Go ahead be furious and don't give respect - to voters you need to win elections. You don't want to win elections? You'll fit right in with the Republican establishment, old boy.
Edited on November 16, 2012 at 5:21amApr '11
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
This is just anti-reality. The Republican party has not been the party of limited government and fiscal conservatism. It just hasn't.
People aren't going to put their dearly held beliefs in individual liberty, economic liberty, and limited government on hold for two decades. Eventually they will stop voting for the party or try to change it.
That's just how the world works. The country club GOP can't ignore it's voting base forever. In fact, it can't ignore even two more years.
But I fully expect it will try.
Apr '11
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
What BrentB67 said.
May '12
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
The republicans had the opportunity to stand for something, but nominated a candidate that couldn't muster a platform or campaign more engaging than saying 'I am not Obama'. Republicans got the candidate they wanted and now have the government they deserve. I voted Romney and sent money like everyone else I know in the Tea Party. The responsibility for winning a campaign lies solely with the candidate. He gets the spoils of the office and the responsibility of defeat. Want to win an election? Stand For something and try starting with a Constitutionally limited federal government and free market economy - the results may be astounding.
Jun '10
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
Jeff
Yeah, and the RNC and country club conservative establishment are flexible and inclusive. Not. Remember the brutish way the establishment treated Tea Party and libertarian Republicans at the convention.
Go ahead be furious and don't give respect -to voters you need to win elections. You don't want to win elections? You'll fit right in with the Republican establishment, old boy.
First, watch the Breitbart video and make an attempt to understand what was at stake for the country and comprehend that conservative non-voters just handed a victory to the Marxist administration. Second, I helped organize a Tea Party group in my community, spoke at rallies, and contributed to Tea Party candidates, so I don't think I need to lectured by anyone that I'd fit into country club Republicanism. Finally, politics is a blood sport for adults not whiners and cry babies who can't handle being ill-treated by establishment Republicans...but at some point one has to grow up and think rationally and not expect everyone to be nice. Petulance is not a winning strategy and puts America that much closer to insolvency. So, thanks.
Apr '11
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
I and my fellow libertarian-conservatives know what happened in the last election. The Republican Party failed to create a winning coalition of voters to defeat Obama. It failed mainly because it expected every swing voter to sacrifice their principles to vote for Romney.
Most of us did that. But in the real world, where there are real people, you can expect to turn off voters at the margins. And that's what happened. And that's why the GOP establishment strategy is stupid and self-defeating. You can't grasp this fact. You are herby stripped of your self-made mantle of pragmatism.
You can call swing voters petulant cry babies all you want. You need them to win elections. Eventually you and the GOP establishment will come to heel, old boy.
Edited on November 16, 2012 at 5:49amMay '12
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
Brian Watt: Well, um...pardon me, but Libertarians and conservatives in the Tea Party movement who stayed away from the polls, did not vote for the Romney/Ryan ticket, don't get any measure of respect from me. I received an email announcement weeks prior to the election that a Tea Party News Network was established. A few days later they chose: "None of the above" as their Presidential endorsement. I unsubscribed and was given the opportunity to explain why I was unsubscribing. I told them there non-endorsement was irresponsible, reckless and naive and they could get stuffed. Had there not been a character limit, I would have written more.
Was Romney the ideal candidate? Perhaps not. But last time I checked Ronald Reagan was dead and for my money Romney was the candidate with the right set of values and vision and with the...
You are right, frankly I'm more disgusted with them than with Obama voters. Unlike the typical Obama voter, they are bright enough to know better.
They were being unrealistic and frankly a little needy, they were forcing Romney to choose between them and Independents when he really needed both of them to win.
Jun '10
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
The responsibility for winning a campaign lies solely with the candidate.
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.
The responsibility for defeating Marxist-inspired progressivism was placed squarely in front of the electorate. Obama sycophants were a lost cause. I was just hoping that Libertarians and some Tea Party folks would have voted their self interest instead acting all pouty.
Apr '11
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
Yes, this is common trope on Ricochet. Libertarian conservatives are worse than liberals! Good luck getting the swing vote with that, buster.
Libertarians want constitutional government, federalism, and free markets. OMG! And they'll vote their principles! Quelle horreur! They want their party to live up to those principles! Unreal!
Give me a freakin' break. Go lose some more elections and come back when you've learned something.
Jun '10
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
Jeff I and my fellow libertarian-conservatives know what happened in the last election. The Republican Party failed to create a winning coalition of voters to defeat Obama. It failed mainly because it expected every swing voter to sacrifice their principles to vote for Romney.
Most of us did that. But in the real world, where there are real people, you can expect to turn off voters at the margins. And that's what happened. And that's why the GOP establishment strategy is stupid and self-defeating. You can't grasp this fact. You are herby stripped of your self-made mantle of pragmatism.
You can call swing voters petulant cry babies all you want. You need them to win elections. Eventually you and the GOP establishment will come to heel, old boy.
If the Romney campaign is guilty of anything, it's guilty of making the assumption that Libertarians and Tea Party candidates were not so naive to think that a Romney administration would be a mirror image of an Obama administration. To believe that Romney and Ryan would have been more of the same is abysmally naive.
Edited on November 16, 2012 at 6:18amMay '12
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
Jeff
Yes, this is common trope on Ricochet. Libertarian conservatives are worse than liberals! Good luck getting the swing vote with that, buster.
Libertarians want constitutional government, federalism, and free markets. OMG! And they'll vote their principles!Quelle horreur! They want their party to live up to those principles! Unreal!
Give me a freakin' break. Go lose some more elections and come back when you've learned something. · 2 minutes ago
First of all, ideologically I'm somewhere in that area between Conservative and Libertarian, so I'm criticizing people whose critiques of Romney I largely agree with.
Secondly, I didn't say they are "worse than Liberals", I'm saying I expect more from them. I have trouble getting angry at people who don't know any better.
Edited on November 16, 2012 at 6:06amApr '11
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
Yeah, it was put before the electorate. It's the candidates job to convince the electorate that he'll vote uphold their interests. Romney failed to do that.
In fact, he produced greater margins for libertarian candidates than ever before. Ever before. That's a huge failure. His nomination was a huge mistake.
Your world where electorates don't have swing voters doesn't exist. They're called swing voters because they will swing their vote - duh.
The swing voters didn't decide to swing our way. They didn't really believe Romney would repeal Obamacare. I voted for the guy, and I didn't either. They heard him praising regulation in the debates. They looked at this big government record in Massachusetts.
In the real world, life isn't like a college debate. Rhetoric matters. A candidate's record matters. The establishment just doesn't get that. That's about as dumb as it gets.
Jun '10
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
Jeff
Yes, this is common trope on Ricochet. Libertarian conservatives are worse than liberals! Good luck getting the swing vote with that, buster.
Libertarians want constitutional government, federalism, and free markets. OMG! And they'll vote their principles!Quelle horreur! They want their party to live up to those principles! Unreal!
Give me a freakin' break. Go lose some more elections and come back when you've learned something. · 6 minutes ago
Well, buster, old boy - in the 2012 election Libertarians and conservatives who chose not to vote may as well have voted for Obama. It led to the result. I share the same principles old boy, buster. I was just hoping I wouldn't have to recite them from the inside of a cardboard box living under a freeway overpass.
May '12
Re: GOP Ignores Libertarian Swing Voters, and Loses
How many times has Ryan spoken at the Cato Institute?
I know he has been there a few times because I heard him speak there. The guy was Romney's pick for Vice President, Libertarians, and Libertarian leaning Conservatives should have been thrilled to vote for that ticket. They haven't had anything like it in a very long time.