GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
Because I know so little about campaign strategy, I find myself easily persuadable. So when I read this Stanley Kurtz piece about how Republicans forgot to articulate an alternative governing strategy, I was worried:
This election could go either way. If Obama squeaks by, he will have done so with the help of a Democratic party that has taken a large, open, and disturbingly leftist turn. I think we’re missing the significance of that. It is completely accurate to say that the Democrats are pushing a bogus reformulation of the American way of life — slapping a bunch of flags on their Julia ad and turning classic conceptions of civic and religious community into covers for a cradle-to-grave welfare state. Unfortunately, this way of thinking is becoming the new normal in this country, and Obama and his convention have only helped to cement the change.
Conservatives can puncture these arguments all we like, but we can’t cut through the media filter. More than that, the conservative case can’t break through the left-controlled education system that has profoundly shaped the Millennials. True, youth unemployment is giving many second thoughts about Obama, yet it’s been more a matter of sapping Millennial enthusiasm than of changing attitudes and ideas...
Only the Romney campaign can cut through the cultural, educational, and media filters and force a debate over the Obama Democrats’ bogus redefinition of the American dream. The media can ignore what conservatives say, but they still have to cover the candidate. With the exception of his welfare ads, however, the Romney campaign has avoided an assault on Obama’s ideology. Romney’s entirely plausible strategy is to downplay the ideological battle (Ryan nomination notwithstanding)...
I can’t say for certain that Romney’s strategy is wrong. But I do think it’s far riskier than we realize. Treating Obama as a nice guy in over his head, rather than a smart leftist who knows exactly what he’s doing, leaves the Democrats’ bogus narrative about government unanswered. America is changing, and Republicans are naive to rely on the public to simply recognize the problems in the Democrats’ claims without significant help from our nominee.
So I was noodling on that all weekend as the poll numbers came out showing that Romney was at a distinct disadvantage relative to Obama. But then I read this Jay Cost piece in The Weekly Standard.
Cost says that the narrative that Obama is a strong favorite to win reelection is built on bogus assumptions -- an aggressive Obama PR campaign that tries to create a bandwagon effect, registered voter polls that over-sample Dempcrats, left-leaning journalists who assume an Obama advantage, and hyper-partisan polling firms. He looks at the data from another perspective and argues Romney is in a perfectly fine position -- similar to Reagan's in 1980:
Obviously, all of this could change. Historically speaking, convention bounces tend to be exactly that – bounces that fade over time. Romney enjoyed a modest bounce, and so far it looks like Obama is enjoying a 4-point bounce or so. My instincts tell me that by the time of the debates, we will be back to precisely where we were in August – both candidates essentially tied and stuck 3-5 points below 50 percent. Time will tell.
It seems to me that the Romney campaign's strategy is to play it safe and hope to squeak by in the election. In so doing, they're hoping that voters have sufficiently negative feelings about Obama -- and sufficiently positive feelings about Romney -- to eke out a win. In a way, such a strategy is even riskier than articulating how Romney and Republicans in Congress would govern in dramatically different fashion from the Democrats.
So what do you think? Do you think Romney's subtle campaign questioning Obama's competence is the way to go or do you think he should be addressing these fundamental questions of governance more strongly?
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Comments:
Jun '12
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
Mollie, may I draw your attention to this little bit of historical perspective from Drudge?
Be not discouraged. Calling the election this early is like calling a baseball game in the 3rd inning... just about now most of the casual fans have finally gotten their beers and are sitting down in their seats, sort of like how casual voters are just now starting to pay attention to the election.
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
ConservativeWanderer: Mollie, may I draw your attention to this little bit of historical perspective from Drudge?
Be not discouraged. Calling the election this early is like calling a baseball game in the 3rd inning... just about now most of the casual fans have finally gotten their beers and are sitting down in their seats, sort of like how casual voters are just now starting to pay attention to the election. · 2 minutes ago
Right. I get that. And, in fact, Reagan's huge victory campaign was imperceptible to pollsters right up until the end.
However, Reagan and Romney are, at this point, running very different campaigns. Reagan ran as someone proposing a distinctly conservative vision for America (and not just as someone saying -- in sadness, more than anger -- that Carter was in over his head).
Does that difference in campaign quality matter? And, if so, how?
Jun '12
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
Right. I get that. And, in fact, Reagan's huge victory campaign was imperceptible to pollsters right up until the end.
However, Reagan and Romney are, at this point, running very different campaigns. Reagan ran as someone proposing a distinctly conservative vision for America (and not just as someone saying -- in sadness, more than anger -- that Carter was in over his head).
Does that difference in campaign quality matter? And, if so, how? · 0 minutes ago
What about the Dukakis/Bush comparison?
Every campaign is different. Every single one. The point is, a lead after the conventions does not always translate into a lead on Election Day.
There's a lot of baseball yet to be played. Just because they're up by a run in the 3rd inning doesn't mean they'll be ahead by a run in the 9th.
May '10
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
I think it's a pointless question. Romney is who he is; his campaign will be what it will be.
I think Kurtz' concern is right for the longer-term, though. A lot of damage has been done and reversing isn't going to be easy.
Conservatives are going to have to get a lot bolder all over the place in coming years, especially in taking on the harm done in education.
Edited on September 10, 2012 at 3:31pmJan '11
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
Romney = competence, Ryan = ideology.
Why can't they do both?
Dec '10
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
Both the Obama strategy and Romney's current strategy treat the American people like children incapable of understanding what is really at stake. The only difference is that Obama promises cookies if you come to the dark side.
Nov '10
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/09/spreading-fear-and-despondency/
Jun '10
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
Is there a fundamental difference between Republicans and Democrats? Not since 1988 by my reckoning. Is Romney that much different from Obama? His record as governor says he isn't. We can only hope that if Mr. Romney is elected, he'll have had a conservative epiphany by now. The only "fundamental" change in the two party system since Reagan is the spontaneous rise of the Tea Party - which as of today isn't even really a party. Maybe the conservative party in exile should the Republicans blow the election.
Jan '12
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
It is likely that more readers of your excellent article will opt for the "distinctly conservative vision"; it simply appeals to a conservative's sense of integrity.
However, at this stage in the campaign (where we are still trying to guess which tack the Romney/Ryan team will choose!), there isn't much time for the average voter (one not very interested in political ideology) to begin to understand the underlying differences, even though they have never been so pronounced and obvious to us conservatives, as in this election>
Therefore, it seems that there must be a sense of urgency about the stakes here, which we have not seen in Mr. Romney's delivery, only Paul Ryan's.
It seems trite, but perhaps it will come down to how passionately and genuinely Mr. Romney is able to convey the feeling that our house is on fire, and more kerosene is just not the answer!
Sep '12
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
From reports that I've read on blogs about political ad placements, the R's haven't started placing ads outside of swing states. If you don't live in a swing state, you aren't likely to see them, or have a sense that the ads are having an effect. State polls are conducted less frequently, so information about voter preferences in the swing states is slower to surface to the public. More patience is required.
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
ConservativeWanderer
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
Right. I get that. And, in fact, Reagan's huge victory campaign was imperceptible to pollsters right up until the end.
However, Reagan and Romney are, at this point, running very different campaigns. Reagan ran as someone proposing a distinctly conservative vision for America (and not just as someone saying -- in sadness, more than anger -- that Carter was in over his head).
Does that difference in campaign quality matter? And, if so, how? · 0 minutes ago
What about the Dukakis/Bush comparison?
Every campaign is different. Every single one. The point is, a lead after the conventions does not always translate into a lead on Election Day.
The Dukakis campaign was another one where the challenger felt confident that questioning the competence of the guy who was (essentially) the incumbent.
It's part of the reason the Romney strategy concerns me.
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
I live in a swing state ...
Jun '12
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
ConservativeWanderer
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
Right. I get that. And, in fact, Reagan's huge victory campaign was imperceptible to pollsters right up until the end.
However, Reagan and Romney are, at this point, running very different campaigns. Reagan ran as someone proposing a distinctly conservative vision for America (and not just as someone saying -- in sadness, more than anger -- that Carter was in over his head).
Does that difference in campaign quality matter? And, if so, how? · 0 minutes ago
What about the Dukakis/Bush comparison?
Every campaign is different. Every single one. The point is, a lead after the conventions does not always translate into a lead on Election Day.
The Dukakis campaign was another one where the challenger felt confident that questioning the competence of the guy who was (essentially) the incumbent.
It's part of the reason the Romney strategy concerns me. · 1 minute ago
And Dukakis challenging Bush's competence didn't work, did it?
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
ConservativeWanderer
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
The Dukakis campaign was another one where the challenger felt confident that questioning the competence of the guy who was (essentially) the incumbent.
It's part of the reason the Romney strategy concerns me. · 1 minute ago
And Dukakis challenging Bush's competence didn't work, did it? · 7 minutes ago
I didn't complete my thought, I see. Just that Dukakis thought that strategy would work. It obviously failed -- even against a very weak candidate.
I agree with you that every campaign is different. However, I do think there is truth to the belief that you can't win campaigns solely by being against stuff.
Jun '12
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
However, I do think there is truth to the belief that you can't win campaigns solely by being against stuff. · 1 minute ago
Someone I know very well said the same thing last week. Even mentioned it here to draw attention to it.
Obama is the one playing the "vote against" card, with his constant attacks on Romney and everything Republican. Romney is offering a comprehensive (150+ page!) economic plan for putting us back on the right track... clearly a reason to vote for him if you think our economy is in shambles... which it is.
Aug '12
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
Note that the Rasmussen polls said, barely ten days ago, that Romeny had gained a 6 point bounce from the RNC and that Obama's favorable/unfavorable spread had increased to -19%. Don't panic. But do keep fighting [insert obligatory Winston Churchill reference here] and turn up the intensity. I think Paul Rahe and Haley Barbour are right. The electorate is ready to dump Obama. Republicans need only give them an excuse to do it. And furthermore, the more frequently the R/R ticket can antagonize and rattle Obama, the better. He's never had to deal with real opposition and he's terrible at it. Terrible meaning in this case both petulant and incompetent.
Jun '12
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
Amen!
May '10
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
I didn't complete my thought, I see. Just that Dukakis thought that strategy would work. It obviously failed -- even against a very weak candidate.
I agree with you that every campaign is different. However, I do think there is truth to the belief that you can't win campaigns solely by being against stuff. · 16 minutes ago
But, Molly, a key difference is that Romney actually is much more competent than Obama.
The more Americans compare the two in the coming months, the more obvious that will become.
Oct '10
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
Personally, I would prefer a campaign attacking the Democrat ideas and constrasting them with conservative ones. Assuming we win that debate, we will then have a mandate to govern with conservative policy alternatives. However, it's not clear to me that Romney won't start to do that at some point in the campaign. He's a smart, fact-driven person who wants to win this election. People generally want to vote for someone rather than against someone.
Jan '12
Re: GOP Either Doomed Or Sitting Pretty
"Rattling Obama" isn't going to get Romney elected, although it may help him win a debate.
Aren't we forgetting the millions who don't care if President Obama is two feet tall and believes in goblins, as long as they get their government handouts every month.
Most of us have no idea (myself, included), of just how much government 'gives away' in the form of subsidies, vouchers, direct payments and waived expenses!
This group of people have reached a critical mass and we conservatives will find out in November who is more accurate in assessing how far along the country is in this process;
i.e. what percentage of the electorate are pullers at the oars and what percentage are just riding in the boat; remembering, of course, that voter fraud will substantially increase this second number.