From the Front Lines in Florida
From a friend in Tallahassee:
The battle is hot here in FL. The electeds and party hacks are almost uniformly pro-Romney. But many of them are the same people who early on endorsed Crist over Rubio, when the former's Senate win seemed (to them) inevitable. My impression is the grassroots types are breaking toward Newt. It's amazing that the race here now seems like a toss-up, when just a week ago it appeared Romney would blow away the field.
The fourth most populous state in the nation, Florida will next Tuesday cast more GOP primary votes than Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina combined. Florida matters--and the latest poll shows a dead heat.
Update at 2:25PM Pacific: Two new polls have just come out, one by CNN, one by Qunnipiac. Both show Romney up by two, 36 to 34. Looks as though everything--everything--will come down to tomorrow night's debate.
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Aug '10
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
DrewInWisconsin
Two things that I think will diminish the meaning of the Florida vote. First, it's the early voting. If Romney wins, but only by a small margin, it is likely to be seen as merely the effect of the early voting, rather than a snapshot of the mood on primary day. Also, because Florida moved up their primary, they only get half the delegates they would have normally had. So though it's the fourth most pompous state, the number of delegates this year is lower and therefore it makes the primary here less significant.
Florida is huge for both candidates. The problem Newt has is that if he loses Mitt probably takes most of the February contests like he did in 2008. There will be no debates for several weeks so it will be hard for Newt to stop his slide and he lacks the resources to compete on the airwaves in all of those states. Come Super Tuesday Romney will have Mr Momentum on his side.
Aug '11
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
I can't speak for Florida. I live in Boca Raton and drive down to Ft Lauderdale often but I really can't say which way I think my area would go.
Heck, I still don't know which way I'm going to go. I listened to Ann Coulter on Newt Ginrich and I thought "no way I can vote for him." And then I read Tom Blumer (BizzyBlog) on Romney and I think the same thing. That's why the previous Ricochet post-- Sowell and Rahe on Newt and Romney-- was so interesting.
Nov '11
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
The thing is that in a race between a lively Southern candidate vs a rather stiff Northern candidate, lacking some clear and decisive difference in the policy platform, you'd expect the Southerner to win SC and have a leg up in Florida, just like you'd expect the Northerner to win New Hampshire. Newt understood South Carolinians and Romney simply doesn't.
Thanks to the earlier polls Romney got absolutely slaughtered by the expectations game and Gingrich beat it in a big way, which of course gave him all the momentum going into FL.
Dec '10
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
Seems like those favoring Newt are still looking past his high negatives with general voters. The same high negatives that kept Sarah Palin out of the race. The Republican Party will get killed in November with Newt leading the charge. I'm not willing to go there.
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
Unfortunately, as became evident yesterday or the day before, Romney now has the same high negatives in the polling data.
Aug '11
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
BKelley14:
The Republican Party will get killed in November with Newt leading the charge.
Strong assertions require strong evidence. Here's some evidence against your assertion. Note also that both are essentially tied in a match against Obama, with both losing 50% to 48%. However, that's an upswing for Gingrich with no movement for Romney. Gingrich is rising, Romney is standing still. ("Standing Still" may end up being his political epitaph.)
Jul '11
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
jhimmi
I think, whether he deserves it or not, when Paul speaks of foreign policy, many people hear something like "those men, women and children at the WTC had it coming!". Or, "9/11 might have been an inside job!". A little too roguish for most. · 2 hours ago
Yep, more than a bit roguish for me.
Jul '11
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
Pilli
I wouldn't want to bet on that. The panhandle is extremely Conservative though less populated. The central part of the state (Gainesville through Orlando over to the east coast is also conservative.) My guess is that these go to Newt.
Tampa south is hard to guess. 50/50 chance.
Vero Beach south to Miami is more Romney oriented.
Its gonna be fun! I still don't know who I'll vote for. Maybe Cain...he's still on the ballot. · 1 hour ago
I just went on the establishment candidate theory and that Newt's momentum as the anti-Romney has come fast and may fade just as rapidly unless he hits a few more great zingers to energize conservatives.
The money people in the GOP are scared of Newt. We shall see where this leads us.
Nov '10
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
Crist is running? That's it, I know whom I stand behind. Halleluia.
Nov '10
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
Hold on ... that was "Crist", not "Christ"?
Jeez, for want of an H!
May '10
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
Pilli
The panhandle is extremely Conservative though less populated. The central part of the state (Gainesville through Orlando over to the east coast) is also conservative. My guess is that these go to Newt.
In South Carolina, turnout from the conservative areas was unusually high. I'd be surprised if the same didn't occur in Florida. But those votes could be split between Gingrich, Santorum and Ron Paul.
The Tea Party movement has weakened, but not evaporated entirely.
Nov '11
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
Paul A. Rahe
Unfortunately, as became evident yesterday or the day before, Romney now has the same high negatives in the polling data. · 13 minutes ago
That's bad for Romney and bad for us -- but I think Conn Carroll is probably right that Gingrich's ratings are more settled than Romney's.
Instead of talking about the "most electable' we should probably say "least unelectable?"
Apr '11
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
R. Craigen
"...But many of them are the same people who early on endorsed Crist over Rubio..."
Crist is running? That's it, I know whom I stand behind. Halleluia. · 12 minutes ago
R. Craigen: Hold on ... that was "Crist", not "Christ"?
Jeez, for want of an H! · 11 minutes ago
Word of warning: If you see "Jesus" on a ballot with a surprisingly gentile surname, it's probably best to check out his identity before planting you X on our savior's box. At least three times out of four, it's not going to be the Man himself running for dogcatcher or district judge.
Dec '10
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
From the ground.
You should be aware that Rubio was running against Crist, whereas Newt's ads are claiming Romney is guided by Crist's advisors. Romney came down and campaigned for Rubio in 2010, while Newt ducked. When FL conservatives were trying to get Cornyn and the SRCC out of our primary and give Rubio some breathing space, Romney stood with Rubio. That will not be forgotten by Rubio, or those of us down here that wanted an alternative to Crist.
I am kinda leaning towards Newt, but Bill McCollum seems to be his point man, down here, probably the only guy left. Bad choice.
Forget the delegate count, as we are halved by the RNC, but they always change their minds. More importantly, the "I-4 Corridor", from Daytona to Tampa, is the ballast. Early votes will not likely have mattered, as that is not the absentee-heavy area, and the deep blue areas that the DOJ insisted got to vote early (e.g., Tampa, downtown Orlando), are not areas that vote in the GOP primary, in this closed state.
Prediction? I'll probably vote for Newt and Romney will win.
Rubio is "neutral", Not.
Sep '10
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
Romney came down and campaigned for Rubio in 2010, while Newt ducked. When FL conservatives were trying to get Cornyn and the SRCC out of our primary and give Rubio some breathing space, Romney stood with Rubio. That will not be forgotten by Rubio, or those of us down here that wanted an alternative to Crist.
Fascinating. Thanks CJ.
Apr '11
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
DrewInWisconsin
BKelley14:
The Republican Party will get killed in November with Newt leading the charge.
Strong assertions require strong evidence. Here's some evidence against your assertion. Note also that both are essentially tied in a match against Obama, with both losing 50% to 48%. However, that's an upswing for Gingrich with no movement for Romney. Gingrich is rising, Romney is standing still. ("Standing Still" may end up being his political epitaph.) · 31 minutes ago
I went to the link, but didn't see any evidence against BKelley that jumped out. Could you unpack your conclusions a little?
If you look at statewide polling in head to heads against Obama, there are endless polls placing Mitt as the only candidate in the field who wins against Obama, in state after state, including key swing states. Sometimes he's joined or beaten by Perry, Santorum or, early in the race, Huckabee. Not one poll that I could find had Mitt losing a statewide race to Obama and Newt winning it. There are polls with all kinds of crazy results (I don't really believe Newt could lose Georgia, and Mitt win it, against Obama, for instance), but not that one.
Nov '10
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
Leigh
Paul A. Rahe
Unfortunately, as became evident yesterday or the day before, Romney now has the same high negatives in the polling data. · 13 minutes ago
That's bad for Romney and bad for us -- but I think Conn Carroll is probably right that Gingrich's ratings are more settled than Romney's.
I just don't believe this. How many of the Newt supporters on Ricochet used to feel very negative toward Newt? I know I did. He was off the bottom of my list of potential candidates as recently as mid summer. And most of my political convictions are extremely well informed and very deeply set. He changed my mind. If he can win over someone as firmly opposed as I was, he can easily win over the average inattentive voter.
May '10
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
Aaron Miller
Pilli
The panhandle is extremely Conservative though less populated. The central part of the state (Gainesville through Orlando over to the east coast) is also conservative. My guess is that these go to Newt.
In South Carolina, turnout from the conservative areas was unusually high. I'd be surprised if the same didn't occur in Florida. But those votes could be split between Gingrich, Santorum and Ron Paul.
The Tea Party movement has weakened, but not evaporated entirely. · 46 minutes ago
Just an anecdotal observation- I'm in a small north Florida town and the only signs I've seen in folks' yards so far are one for Ron Paul and one for Santorum. Go figure.
May '10
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
Lucy Pevensie
Leigh
Paul A. Rahe
Unfortunately, as became evident yesterday or the day before, Romney now has the same high negatives in the polling data. · 13 minutes ago
That's bad for Romney and bad for us -- but I think Conn Carroll is probably right that Gingrich's ratings are more settled than Romney's.
I just don't believe this. How many of the Newt supporters on Ricochet used to feel very negative toward Newt? I know I did. He was off the bottom of my list of potential candidates as recently as mid summer. And most of my political convictions are extremely well informed and very deeply set. He changed my mind. If he can win over someone as firmly opposed as I was, he can easily win over the average inattentive voter. · 12 minutes ago
I'm right there with you, Lucy.
Aug '11
Re: From the Front Lines in Florida
James Of England
DrewInWisconsin
Strong assertions require strong evidence. Here's some evidence against your assertion. Note also that both are essentially tied in a match against Obama, with both losing 50% to 48%. However, that's an upswing for Gingrich with no movement for Romney. Gingrich is rising, Romney is standing still.
I went to the link, but didn't see any evidence against BKelley that jumped out. Could you unpack your conclusions a little?
Certainly.
The notion that the GOP will "get killed" if Newt is the nominee is not borne out by Gallup's poll that I linked. First, note that Newt is ahead nationwide and on the rise. Romney is steady. Also note that polls currently show both of them losing to Obama. Now perhaps this person meant that if either of them are the GOP nominee the GOP will get killed, but the phrasing suggested it would not happen if we would only come to our senses and vote for Romney. Polling does not support that assertion. Rather it suggests that if we lose badly with Newt, we will lose even worse with Romney.
Ergo, Newt is the safest bet.