From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
Peter Robinson ·
September 11, 2012 at 7:56am
"Don't get too worked up about the latest polling," Neil Newhouse wrote in a memo that the Romney campaign circulated Monday, "While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race."
Well, you might very understandably suppose, the Romney pollster would say that. Yet Newhouse continues to make a number of arresting, and encouraging, points. To wit:
- All signs point to a tight race. Those watching the daily tracking polls know that, while the President has seen a bounce from his convention, his approval has already begun to slip, indicating it is likely to recede further. In eight states, Pollster.com's reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts the margin between the two candidates at less than three points, virtually guaranteeing a tight race.
- Next, the battlefield has actually expanded, not contracted. Note that Wisconsin is now in play and our campaign is now up with ads in that state, while the latest poll numbers from the Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico show the race closing there. And this tightening is not an anomaly. Consider the traditional Democratic strongholds of New Jersey and Connecticut, won by President Obama in 2008 by margins of 15 points and 22 points, respectively. In both states, Pollster.com's reporting of the most recent statewide polls puts Obama's lead at only seven points in each of these states.
- In North Carolina, fresh off of hosting the Democratic National Convention, the Obama campaign is laying the groundwork for a stealth withdrawal. In a state the President won by a mere 14,000 votes in 2008, all one has to do is look at the Obama campaign's television buy in the state to understand how they view their chances there. The Obama campaign's North Carolina television buy has dropped 35% compared to June, and they have run more than twice as much advertising over the past two weeks in Rochester, Minnesota (hitting a small slice of Iowa), than they have in any North Carolina market.
Romney gaining in New Mexico while Obama retreats from North Carolina. Very, very good news.
- Comment (16)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (2)
Comments:
Sep '12
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
One wonders at how Gary Johnson impacts New Mexico. As socially liberal as the Johnson/Gray ticket is, they could keep Obama below fifty percent with the youth vote.
Maybe the Libertarian ticket could help us out and only campaign on college campuses.
Jul '12
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
This Republican New Mexican asks: Gary who?
I kid. Unfairly, Gary Johnson has been sadly forgotten by our state, and he was an outstanding governor. We had to suffer through Clinton crony turncoat Bill Richardson (who gave us the stupid expensive train California is trying to copy) before being blessed with Susana Martinez.
New Mexico politics is a complex subject. Gary Johnson was great, and at the time, he ran as and governed as a Republican. He was a libertarian at heart always, but he set aside some of the less widely adopted aspects of libertarianism for the greater goal of getting elected. It was very important he be elected, and he made the most of it. He fixed much that needed fixing in New Mexico. But he should understand when we as the electorate do the same.
Truly, there's no Gary Johnson groundswell here. I saw a bumper sticker for him once at the ABQ airport parking lot--and I'm pretty sure it was his car.
Watch the Heather Wilson US Senate race. She's going to win that one, and she'll be great. She has always been widely popular, and the polls lie.
Apr '11
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
I will make everyone here a bet. NJ will actually be in play by mid-Oct. I have already seen an Obama ad here and there the past 2 weeks on tv and don't recall seeing a single ad in '08! I can't tell you how many people I have spoken to who WERE Obama supporters in 08 and want nothing to do with a 2nd term. They are literally (sorry Biden) willing to vote for anyone other than Obama. My sister is a Georgetown liberal and told me that she might not vote this time she is so disenchanted with Obama. I nearly had a heart attack when I heard this.
Edited on September 11, 2012 at 2:12pmMay '10
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
On John Batchelor last night they spoke to a reporter that had been in Ohio and was able to attest that pre-convention Paul Ryan pulled a crowd of 10,000 to a rally. This week Biden garnered... wait for it... 600.
Jun '12
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
My sister is a Georgetown liberal and told me that she might not vote this time she is so disenchanted with Obama. I nearly had a heart attack when I heard this. · 1 hour ago
Edited 0 minutes ago
I've had a few experiences like this. Question: do you try and press that person (sister or otherwise) to vote Romney or do you just let it be and hope they stay home? Curious what your approach with friends is. I usually let it be but I'm afraid I may be leaving money on the table.
Mar '11
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
I'm not sure I buy the NC retreat. Isn't it likely that they could conserve cash while they get free local coverage. Then when the convention buzz wears off get right back at it?
Apr '11
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
FightinInPhilly
My sister is a Georgetown liberal and told me that she might not vote this time she is so disenchanted with Obama. I nearly had a heart attack when I heard this. · 1 hour ago
Edited 0 minutes ago
I've had a few experiences like this. Question: do you try and press that person (sister or otherwise) to vote Romney or do you just let it be and hope they stay home? Curious what your approach with friends is. I usually let it be but I'm afraid I may be leaving money on the table. · 33 minutes ago
I know she won't vote GOP, EVER!! My discussions with her - and she's not a kool-aid drinker by any means - is to try to understand how folks of her political leanings are feeling. She is definitely unenthusiastic about this election and this and other converations I've had with Obama supporters verifies Dr. Rahe's thinking that Dem turnout won't be nearly what it was in '08.
Oct '11
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
You're killing me here, Peter, killing me.
Jun '12
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
Obama may realize that his new Biden-inspired gay-marriage stance is likely to cost him NC anyway.
Also, his fundraising is down and his spending through the roof, so he's gotta cut somewhere.
Feb '11
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
Erick Erickson has an interesting analysis of Obama's post-convention bounce. He argues that it was actually a Bill Clinton bounce. As the Democrats' Obama reality sets back in the bounce will dissipate.
May '11
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
Tony Davis:
Watch the Heather Wilson US Senate race. She's going to win that one, and she'll be great. She has always been widely popular, and the polls lie. · 7 hours ago
If Heather Wilson wins, she will not have any thanks for the RNC who has pulled her funding and given it to N. Dakota to the tune of $2 million.
Nov '10
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
Rassmussen's "Swing State Daily Tracking" has Obama +2 with 5% undecided and 3% voting for some other candidate. Don't know what the oversampling of Rassmussen's poll is, but I see that others are still using the 10pt oversampling that is just insane; Dem turnout would have to be 10pt over GOP! Bamster didn't get nearly that in 2008!
Add in the Bradley effect to gross oversampling and I can see Romney taking it not in a neck and neck election, but in a landslide.
Oct '10
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
This is just another anecdote, but it's nice they're piling up isn't it. Just before the last election an old uber-liberal friend of ours was on a tour touting a self-help book she'd written(yeah, that kind of Liberal) and she was promoting Obama as she went. She's from Hawaii and before returning home she detoured to do promo work for The Cause. She was fired up. Absolutely nauseating emails.
On her Facebook page recently one of her gushing fans ask if she'd be out working for the campaign again this year. She answered that at the moment her goal of changing the world was trumping politics. Last year Obama was the way to change the world. This year he's just politics.
Edited on September 11, 2012 at 6:41pmJun '10
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
I remain yet unconvinced by reports from the Rahe Landslide Fan Club.
Jul '12
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
Pilli
Tony Davis:
Watch the Heather Wilson US Senate race. She's going to win that one, and she'll be great. She has always been widely popular, and the polls lie. · 7 hours ago
If Heather Wilson wins, she will not have any thanks for the RNC who has pulled her funding and given it to N. Dakota to the tune of $2 million. · 13 hours ago
That's true, and very frustrating. I think it illustrates exactly why the other side works so hard to skew polls and dispirit us. It makes us undermine our best candidates.
But don't worry, she has in-state support and loyal workers. She's tough and hard working, and I'm confident she'll win. Time to go check my piggy bank to see if there's more in there for her campaign...
Apr '11
Re: From Neil Newhouse, the Romney Campaign's Pollster
What is Pollster.com that Romney's representative Neil Newhouse refers to several times?
When I try that website I get Huffington Post.