Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
First, from Rasmussen this morning:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
These updates are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before President Obama’s prime-time speech last night at the Democratic National Convention.
It's unlikely that last night's speech -- and this morning's job numbers -- will bump Obama's numbers up higher. So, for the moment, and because it's Friday, let's indulge in a little soothing cocooning, shall we?
From Investor's Business Daily:
While either party winning the presidency in 2012 historically can expect seat losses in the [2014] midterm, they are usually far worse in a [re-elected president's] second midterm. To this disadvantage Democrats add the 2014 hurdle of defending 20 Senate seats to Republicans' 13.
So no matter who wins, it's looking good for congressional Republicans. Also:
When it comes to their party's presidential nominee, members of Congress should be careful what they wish for. This year's winner may gain only a few seats. If so, Democrats will be in the worse position to absorb the larger losses historically accompanying a two-term president.
From a congressional Democratic perspective, 2012 looks like a higher four-year risk than reward. We have not seen four consecutive congressional election losses since the Depression, but in a worst-case scenario, Democrats could be looking at that — 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016.
The result could be appreciable Republican majorities and a Republican president in 2016, the same result Democrats enjoyed after 2008. Seeing this, both parties in Congress — especially Democrats — could be excused for quietly asking: Is it worth it?
I'm trying to be very careful not to believe things just because I want them to be true. But this makes an interesting -- and non-ideological -- case.
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Comments:
Jun '12
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
Oh, I am so borrowing this line. :D
Apr '11
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
ConservativeWanderer
You got proof of that? From someone unbiased, and not Nate Silver?
If so, let's see it.
I've been providing my proof that Rasmussen is accurate at every stage... you have yet to show a single shred of evidence that they're not. It's cards-on-the-table time. · 2 hours ago
Edited 2 hours ago
Nate Silver's analysis of the 2010 polls seems fine to me, no matter hsi personal biases.
Jun '12
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
wmartin
ConservativeWanderer
You got proof of that? From someone unbiased, and not Nate Silver?
If so, let's see it.
I've been providing my proof that Rasmussen is accurate at every stage... you have yet to show a single shred of evidence that they're not. It's cards-on-the-table time. · 2 hours ago
Edited 2 hours ago
Nate Silver's analysis of the 2010 polls seems fine to me, no matter hsi personal biases. · 54 minutes ago
Fine.
You want to listen to what the opposition wants you to believe, that's your right.
I'm done with you.
Apr '11
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
ConservativeWanderer
wmartin
ConservativeWanderer
You got proof of that? From someone unbiased, and not Nate Silver?
If so, let's see it.
I've been providing my proof that Rasmussen is accurate at every stage... you have yet to show a single shred of evidence that they're not. It's cards-on-the-table time. · 2 hours ago
Edited 2 hours ago
Nate Silver's analysis of the 2010 polls seems fine to me, no matter hsi personal biases. · 54 minutes ago
Fine.
You want to listen to what the opposition wants you to believe, that's your right.
I'm done with you. · 20 minutes ago
Something is either a fact or it is not. No amount of wishing will make something that is true untrue. I want to know where we actually are in this election, not just where I want us to be.
May '10
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
I find myself often taking the view of each CW and WMartin.
I wonder if this is what Germany felt like in 1938. I feel like half the country is insane, and I am living at a time when we will look back and say, "This is when America died."
If this guy gets elected, it's over. I feel like Obama supporters live in a fantasy land where money grows on trees. How did we get here? And will anything, short of economic catastrophe, get us out?
Edited to add: Rasmussen has Obama up by 2 and Dem "enthusiasm" soaring. Keep sharp objects away from me.
Edited on September 8, 2012 at 6:14pmJun '12
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
Keith Preston: Edited to add: Rasmussen has Obama up by 2 and Dem "enthusiasm" soaring. Keep sharp objects away from me. · 52 minutes ago
Edited 50 minutes ago
It's still September, Mr. Preston... and very early September.
Most of the non-political wonks have just started to realize that there's an election this year, and are just starting to look at the candidates. This is when Romney has to define himself for those who haven't been following him all year.
If he does that well, he's got it wrapped up. If he doesn't, Obama squeaks to victory.
Apr '11
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
Keith Preston: I find myself often taking the view of each CW and WMartin.
I wonder if this is what Germany felt like in 1938. I feel like half the country is insane, and I am living at a time when we will look back and say, "This is when America died."
If this guy gets elected, it's over. I feel like Obama supporters live in a fantasy land where money grows on trees. How did we get here? And will anything, short of economic catastrophe, get us out?
Edited to add: Rasmussen has Obama up by 2 and Dem "enthusiasm" soaring. Keep sharp objects away from me. · 1 hour ago
Edited 1 hour ago
Something else to worry about- does a surging Obama now get his fundraising mojo back? And if Romney slips behind and loses some energy, do his big donors start to back off? Our one uncontested bright spot may be our edge in money we can spend in the last 60 days. If that gets neutralized....who knows?
Edited on September 8, 2012 at 8:24pm