Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
First, from Rasmussen this morning:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
These updates are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before President Obama’s prime-time speech last night at the Democratic National Convention.
It's unlikely that last night's speech -- and this morning's job numbers -- will bump Obama's numbers up higher. So, for the moment, and because it's Friday, let's indulge in a little soothing cocooning, shall we?
While either party winning the presidency in 2012 historically can expect seat losses in the  midterm, they are usually far worse in a [re-elected president's] second midterm. To this disadvantage Democrats add the 2014 hurdle of defending 20 Senate seats to Republicans' 13.
So no matter who wins, it's looking good for congressional Republicans. Also:
When it comes to their party's presidential nominee, members of Congress should be careful what they wish for. This year's winner may gain only a few seats. If so, Democrats will be in the worse position to absorb the larger losses historically accompanying a two-term president.
From a congressional Democratic perspective, 2012 looks like a higher four-year risk than reward. We have not seen four consecutive congressional election losses since the Depression, but in a worst-case scenario, Democrats could be looking at that — 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016.
The result could be appreciable Republican majorities and a Republican president in 2016, the same result Democrats enjoyed after 2008. Seeing this, both parties in Congress — especially Democrats — could be excused for quietly asking: Is it worth it?
I'm trying to be very careful not to believe things just because I want them to be true. But this makes an interesting -- and non-ideological -- case.