Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
First, from Rasmussen this morning:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
These updates are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before President Obama’s prime-time speech last night at the Democratic National Convention.
It's unlikely that last night's speech -- and this morning's job numbers -- will bump Obama's numbers up higher. So, for the moment, and because it's Friday, let's indulge in a little soothing cocooning, shall we?
From Investor's Business Daily:
While either party winning the presidency in 2012 historically can expect seat losses in the [2014] midterm, they are usually far worse in a [re-elected president's] second midterm. To this disadvantage Democrats add the 2014 hurdle of defending 20 Senate seats to Republicans' 13.
So no matter who wins, it's looking good for congressional Republicans. Also:
When it comes to their party's presidential nominee, members of Congress should be careful what they wish for. This year's winner may gain only a few seats. If so, Democrats will be in the worse position to absorb the larger losses historically accompanying a two-term president.
From a congressional Democratic perspective, 2012 looks like a higher four-year risk than reward. We have not seen four consecutive congressional election losses since the Depression, but in a worst-case scenario, Democrats could be looking at that — 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016.
The result could be appreciable Republican majorities and a Republican president in 2016, the same result Democrats enjoyed after 2008. Seeing this, both parties in Congress — especially Democrats — could be excused for quietly asking: Is it worth it?
I'm trying to be very careful not to believe things just because I want them to be true. But this makes an interesting -- and non-ideological -- case.
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Comments:
Apr '11
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
I don't find it encouraging that Romney's lead shrank two points in a day, since Ras tends to be pretty stable. Maybe Clinton had a large effect. Obama had a huge surge in his job approval rating in Gallup yesterday, so who knows if that will help him in the gallup head-to-head. If he does get a bounce, after Romney really didn't, I think that would be fairly grim for us.
I am hoping that today's jobs numbers will be reported fairly. And, the Romney Death Star springs into action in the swing states today.
Question...why is Obama's number in the head-to-head generally several points lower than his job approval number in Rasmussen? I have my problems with Ras's polls, and I am not sure how they get that so consistently. Generally a Presidents vote share correlates matches his approval rating pretty well...
Mar '11
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
The most lasting image/talking point of the last 2 weeks is the Empty Chair speech. Nothing Obama, Romney, Clinton, Biden (hah!) or Ryan said or did matches the power of Clint Eastwood and it's derivatives (ie the Empty Stadium, Empty Chair day, etc ). That the media missed it's power the morning after says just about all we need to know about the vacuity of the Fourth Estate...
Jun '12
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
Agree totally. The empty chair's message is so deafening, every major is still reporting his explanation today (he picked the day after Obama's Speech to feed the media). Clint Eastwood is a genius. No one will ever look at an empty chair the same way again ...and there are lots of them around.
Apr '11
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
Obama getting a big bounce from his convention as new numbers come out. His job approval is now soaring in Gallup..up to 52%, well into reelection territory (up 9 points in 6 days), and now leads Romney by 3 points head to head (his best score in a long while). Their convention just blew ours away.
Edited on September 7, 2012 at 7:18pmRe: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
Damn. Did I cocoon too soon?
Apr '11
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
Yes. Their convention absolutely did it's job. And, when you look at tv ratings, they outdrew us substantially, so their base is energized.
Jun '12
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
wmartin: Obama getting a big bounce from his convention as new numbers come out. His job approval is now soaring in Gallup..up to 52%, well into reelection territory (up 9 points in 6 days), and now leads Romney by 3 points head to head (his best score in a long while). Their convention just blew ours away. · 17 minutes ago
Edited 11 minutes ago
I do not trust Gallup. At all.
They do not publish their demographic information. We have no idea how many Democrats were in their sample as opposed to how many Republicans.
You might as well get your polling information straight from DailyKOS.
Jun '10
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
It will take Rasmussen till Monday to establish a trend. We need to look at the rolling three day average. But even Rasmussen may be missing the real numbers. Every poll badly missed the results of the Walker recall. I suspect the same will be true of the national election.
Nov '10
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
wmartin
Yes. Their convention absolutely did it's job. And, when you look at tv ratings, they outdrew us substantially, so their base is energized. · 1 minute ago
wmartin, if you can find something negative to say, you do so. I'm not sure what you are trying to achieve. Again, from my husband's volunteering with the party and the campaign, I am hearing lots of encouraging information. It begins to seem as though you are making a deliberate effort to demoralize people.
Mar '12
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
Sean Trende has the best explanation of what both parties were trying to do with their conventions.
The Democrats were trying to rally their base; their main perceived problem is turnout, reflected in the polls in the form of (much higher than Republicans) unlikely voters. This explains the difference in Rasmussen polls from other pollsters, which only start to impose a likely voter screen in the 4 weeks before an election. Gallup is validating their rally the base in the short run; question is, will it move many left-leaning young and minorities from unlikely to likely voters by November?
Edited on September 7, 2012 at 8:40pmRe: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
Lucy Pevensie
wmartin
Yes. Their convention absolutely did it's job. And, when you look at tv ratings, they outdrew us substantially, so their base is energized. · 1 minute ago
wmartin, if you can find something negative to say, you do so. I'm not sure what you are trying to achieve. Again, from my husband's volunteering with the party and the campaign, I am hearing lots of encouraging information. It begins to seem as though you are making a deliberate effort to demoralize people. · 5 minutes ago
I think that wmartin is wrong in trusting the polls, but he seems to me to be telling us what things look like as he reads the trends -- and he may be right. A cold-water bath is occasionally a good thing.
That having been said, the convention, when there is one, bounce usually dissipates pretty quickly. In October, folks will be asking themselves whether they can tolerate four more years of stagnation.
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
Here are the early ratings on Obama's speech (thanks to the Drudgeport):
FLASH: EARLY RATINGS FOR OBAMA SPEECH:
NBC -5% FROM 2008
CBS -31% FROM 2008
ABC -50% FROM 2008
Jun '12
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
Paul A. Rahe: Here are the early ratings on Obama's speech (thanks to the Drudgeport):
FLASH: EARLY RATINGS FOR OBAMA SPEECH:
NBC -5% FROM 2008
CBS -31% FROM 2008
ABC -50% FROM 2008 · 0 minutes ago
Thank you, Professor.
Please, post an update on your recovery ASAP... still prayin' for ya.
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
ConservativeWanderer
Paul A. Rahe: Here are the early ratings on Obama's speech (thanks to the Drudgeport):
FLASH: EARLY RATINGS FOR OBAMA SPEECH:
NBC -5% FROM 2008
CBS -31% FROM 2008
ABC -50% FROM 2008 · 0 minutes ago
Thank you, Professor.
Please, post an update on your recovery ASAP... still prayin' for ya. · 1 minute ago
So far, so good. Nine days out from the operation. No muscle pain. Incisions seem to be healing. Fingers crossed. More in a week.
May '12
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
Paul A. Rahe
I think that wmartin is wrong in trusting the polls, but he seems to me to be telling us what things look like as he reads the trends -- and he may be right. A cold-water bath is occasionally a good thing.
That having been said, the convention, when there is one, bounce usually dissipates pretty quickly. In October, folks will be asking themselves whether they can tolerate four more years of stagnation. · 0 minutes ago
As I mentioned over on another post, there are encouraging signs on the ground here in Ohio. For the past month or so the group I work for has been making voter ID calls targeting undecided voters in the state and the results are encouraging. Among those likely undecided voters who have taken the survey, 56.26% of them feel that President Obama has negatively impacted the economy with just 21.8% agreeing that the president has helped the economy.
Can't believe Gallup. For all we know, Axelrod strong-armed them into better poll numbers again.
Apr '11
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
Paul A. Rahe: Here are the early ratings on Obama's speech (thanks to the Drudgeport):
FLASH: EARLY RATINGS FOR OBAMA SPEECH:
NBC -5% FROM 2008
CBS -31% FROM 2008
ABC -50% FROM 2008 · 10 minutes ago
Maybe this is a "Clinton bounce" and not an Obama bounce. as Clinton is not on the ballot, that would set my mind at ease a bit.
McCain/Palin got a nice bounce out of their convention too...so perhaps it is not as bad as I made it sound.
I follow polls obsessively (more than is good for my mental health), and maybe am not seeing the forest for the trees.
Mar '11
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
If Obama wins the Republicans will most probably control the House, the Senate, and the White House in 2016. They would likely remain the dominant party for a generation while most living Americans think of the Democratic Party as the party of Obama and Carter with Clinton an outlier. (or outliar perhaps?)
For this reason, I am convinced there are major players in the Democratic Party actively working against Obama's reelection.
Jun '10
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
Obviously, from the speech last night, Obama is toast. Let's go over the visuals:
People jumping up and down, wrinkling their signs as they flail - √
Tears streaming down faces when Obama says something emotional - √
Rapt, smiling attention from clusters of attractive young women - √
And yet, I did not hear, during any speech high point, of anyone fainting.
Done! Over! Pack up the sunglasses closet, Barack - yer Chicago bound!
Jun '12
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
wmartin
I follow polls obsessively (more than is good for my mental health), and maybe am not seeing the forest for the trees. · 8 minutes ago
The trick is, you need to follow polls that are worth following.
Pollsters that hide the partisan breakdown of their polls are not worth following, listening to, or trusting in any way. It's just that simple.
They're probably trying to depress Republican turnout, and from your comments here, they seem to be succeeding, at least with you.
Apr '11
Re: Friday Morning Cocoon: Victory Coming, More on the Way
ConservativeWanderer
wmartin
I follow polls obsessively (more than is good for my mental health), and maybe am not seeing the forest for the trees. · 8 minutes ago
The trick is, you need to follow polls that are worth following.
Pollsters that hide the partisan breakdown of their polls are not worth following, listening to, or trusting in any way. It's just that simple.
They're probably trying to depress Republican turnout, and from your comments here, they seem to be succeeding, at least with you. · 17 minutes ago
Problem is, you sound just like me in 2006 and 2008. In both those years, I refused to believe what the polls said, nitpicking the partisan samples, talked about the "narrative pollsters were trying to set," leapt obsessively on anecdotes about turnout strength in certain states etc. In the end, the polls were right twice and I was wrong. I decided then I would not let myself be blinded by wishcasting.
Gallup is the oldest and most respected pollster and has been one of the friendliest to Romney in this cycle. I can't only listen to what Rasmussen tells me, as many conservatives seem willing to do.