Freedom
Bill McGurn ·
Jan 28, 2011 at 3:47pm
President Obama spoke reasonably well just now in the midst of the Egyptian crisis, but both he and Mr. Mubarak will be judged by how well they follow up. I do not see the Egyptians willing to give Mr. Mubarak the benefit of the doubt, given his record and previous promises.
I do note that my old boss, President Bush, often said that democracy in Iraq would inspire other Arabs to claim their freedom, that Arab moms and dads want for their children what we want for our children -- and he was mocked for it.
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May '10
Re: Freedom
Good point, Bill! One of the many reasons I like GWB. And here's a big LIKE for this post.
Jun '10
Re: Freedom
We shall see. Are the protests exclusively Arabs claiming freedom? And freedom for whom? How many women are rioting? What's the role of the Muslim Brotherhood?
Too early to tell.
But it's ironic that Obama demand Egypt to keep open free dialogue while his administration pushes for the Fairness Doctrine & FCC control of the internet back here in the US.
May '10
Re: Freedom
President Bush was in the freedom business as is fitting for American Presidents.
If this turmoil results in greater self-determination for the people of the middle east, GWB still will not receive the credit for getting the ball rolling. But he won't care.
Jul '10
Re: Freedom
With all due respect, Bill, I think President Bush sometimes suffered from misplaced empathy.
He is the man, after all, who wished to believe that Islam is a religion of peace and who claimed to discern a natural tendency towards conservatism among Hispanics.
Certainly, Arab moms and dads want some of the same things for their children that American parents want, but Americans' fierce attachment to democracy is truly exceptional in the world. An American mom or dad might rebuke a child for blasphemous speech, for instance. What would an Egyptian mom or dad do?
Dec '10
Re: Freedom
There is a piece of common-sense wisdom that says one should never deploy a weapon unless one intends to use it.
Mubarak ordered tanks onto the streets in Egypt. The tanks didn't mow down protesters. This indicates to me that (1) the Army is not eager to kill fellow Egyptians, (2) the protesters now know this, and (3) the protesters are willing to take the risk of being mown down to keep up the protests.
I conclude therefore that Mubarak is toast. There seems to be no willingness to repeat Tienanmen or Hama in Cairo, and just as Tunisia's Ben Ali tried to hang on with an offer of a change of cabinet but failed, Mubarak won't satisfy the protesters with a change of cabinet because they know that no one but Mubarak holds real power in his government.
If Mubarak can't negotiate a Pinochet-style deal to stay in country as a private citizen immune from prosecution, he'll have to bug out. His departure doesn't necessarily mean freedom for the Egyptians, because freedom is an end-state after a lot of hard work.
Jan '11
Re: Freedom
I understand the argument that if genuine democracy sprouts up in Tunisia and Egypt, that this looks like a success for the Iraq idea. But what if we get Islamist regimes? Does that make Iraq a failure?
Dec '10
Re: Freedom
Bill McGurn:
I do note that my old boss, President Bush, often said that democracy in Iraq would inspire other Arabs to claim their freedom, that Arab moms and dads want for their children what we want for our children -- and he was mocked for it. ·
I've been following this story with great interest. So much interest that I even held my nose and tuned into CNN and MSNBC to see how they were covering it.
Wolf Blitzer, being the left wing hack he is, was trying to spin this as in part inspired by Obama's Cairo speech. In the brief time I watched he didn't mention GWB. The left is already trying to get ahead of this to give Obama credit if it ends well. If it ends badly, obviously it will be Bush's Fault.
Edited on Jan 28, 2011 at 4:17pmMay '10
Re: Freedom
It's a roll of the dice to be sure but, the alternative is the persistance of basket-case autocracies that can't meet the needs and desires of their people where the frustration eventually boils over in the fashion we're seeing now. It's risky but worth a try especially after 30 years or so.
And, self-determination may not be what we would want it to be but that's not for us to decide.
Is Iraq a failure? Way too early to tell.
Dec '10
Re: Freedom
Kervinlee
It's a roll of the dice to be sure but, the alternative is the persistance of basket-case autocracies that can't meet the needs and desires of their people where the frustration eventually boils over in the fashion we're seeing now. It's risky but worth a try especially after 30 years or so.
And, self-determination may not be what we would want it to be but that's not for us to decide.
Is Iraq a failure? Way too early to tell. · Jan 28 at 4:20pm
Remember that Iraq shows that an Arab democracy is possible, as fragile and messy as it may be. Iran and Saudi Arabia show the theocratic alternative: I doubt that the masses of disaffected young protesters look on those theocracies as places of hope and opportunity.
Jun '10
Re: Freedom
I have a friend who worked for VOA in Cairo when Sadat was assassinated. He reported that the Egyptian people danced in the streets at the news. Mubarak was known as "Sadat's poodle" at the time. No one expected him to emerge as a strongman. There certainly won't be any love lost when he departs.
Another other odd thing about the place is that Egyptians don't consider themselves Arabs. I've heard this from numerous people. If they aren't Arab, then who and what are they? What does it mean? I haven't a clue.
I can tell you also from personal experience that the majority of Egyptians are passive. My impression is that most are simple folk whose piety creates an attitude of complete fatalism. "Malesh" (it doesn't matter) and "Inshallah" (if God wills it) are words to live by. My guess is that while the citizens of Cairo rise in revolt, the majority of Egyptians will remain quiet and passive.
My take anyway from the little I know about the place.
Jul '10
Re: Freedom
Stuart Creque
Kervinlee
Remember that Iraq shows that an Arab democracy is possible, as fragile and messy as it may be. Iran and Saudi Arabia show the theocratic alternative: I doubt that the masses of disaffected young protesters look on those theocracies as places of hope and opportunity. · Jan 28 at 4:23pm
No, Iraq shows that a tribal society exhausted by internecine slaughter is capable of settling into an armed truce, enforced by 50,000 American troops. Whether that ultimately evolves into something like a democracy is still very much in doubt.
May '10
Re: Freedom
Stuart Creque
Remember that Iraq shows that an Arab democracy is possible, as fragile and messy as it may be. Iran and Saudi Arabia show the theocratic alternative: I doubt that the masses of disaffected young protesters look on those theocracies as places of hope and opportunity. · Jan 28 at 4:23pm
I have heard English-speaking Egyptians interviewed on Al-Jazeera today - and they were saying that what they needed was freedom, specifically. Not Islam. Freedom.
Jun '10
Re: Freedom
"Americans' fierce attachment to democracy is truly exceptional in the world."
Agree 100%. GWB is a good man, but could also be guilty of amazing naivete.
Honor killings, clitoridectomies, stonings, beheadings, child brides........so much of the Arab world embraces these caveman beliefs that it's silly to think their idea of democracy would bear much resemblance to ours.
Jul '10
Re: Freedom
Kervinlee
Stuart Creque
Remember that Iraq shows that an Arab democracy is possible, as fragile and messy as it may be. Iran and Saudi Arabia show the theocratic alternative: I doubt that the masses of disaffected young protesters look on those theocracies as places of hope and opportunity. · Jan 28 at 4:23pm
I have heard English-speaking Egyptians interviewed on Al-Jazeera today - and they were saying that what they needed was freedom, specifically. Not Islam. Freedom. · Jan 28 at 4:31pm
That's a skewed sample. English-speaking Egyptians are, by definition, more inclined towards Western thinking.
Dec '10
Re: Freedom
I'm having trouble imagining all of this happening if Saddam was still sitting in Baghdad with the UN inspectors gone and sanctions lifted.
May '10
Re: Freedom
Kenneth
Kervinlee
Stuart Creque
Remember that Iraq shows that an Arab democracy is possible, as fragile and messy as it may be. Iran and Saudi Arabia show the theocratic alternative: I doubt that the masses of disaffected young protesters look on those theocracies as places of hope and opportunity. · Jan 28 at 4:23pm
I have heard English-speaking Egyptians interviewed on Al-Jazeera today - and they were saying that what they needed was freedom, specifically. Not Islam. Freedom. · Jan 28 at 4:31pm
That's a skewed sample. English-speaking Egyptians are, by definition, more inclined towards Western thinking. · Jan 28 at 4:34pm
Granted, granted. Not taking a scientific survery here; just sayin'.
May '10
Re: Freedom
Kenneth
Stuart Creque
Kervinlee
Remember that Iraq shows that an Arab democracy is possible, as fragile and messy as it may be. Iran and Saudi Arabia show the theocratic alternative: I doubt that the masses of disaffected young protesters look on those theocracies as places of hope and opportunity. · Jan 28 at 4:23pm
No, Iraq shows that a tribal society exhausted by internecine slaughter is capable of settling into an armed truce, enforced by 50,000 American troops. Whether that ultimately evolves into something like a democracy is still very much in doubt. · Jan 28 at 4:28pm
Kenneth, I'm beginning to get the impression that you don't have much confidence in this spectacle coming to any good.
Jul '10
Re: Freedom
Kervinlee
Kenneth
Stuart Creque
Kervinlee
Remember that Iraq shows that an Arab democracy is possible, as fragile and messy as it may be. Iran and Saudi Arabia show the theocratic alternative: I doubt that the masses of disaffected young protesters look on those theocracies as places of hope and opportunity. · Jan 28 at 4:23pm
No, Iraq shows that a tribal society exhausted by internecine slaughter is capable of settling into an armed truce, enforced by 50,000 American troops. Whether that ultimately evolves into something like a democracy is still very much in doubt. · Jan 28 at 4:28pm
Kenneth, I'm beginning to get the impression that you don't have much confidence in this spectacle coming to any good. · Jan 28 at 4:45pm
I suspect Iran is orchestrating the uprisings in Egypt and Jordan, just as they orchestrated Hezbollah's takeover in Lebanon.
But even if I'm wrong, the only organized group ready to step into an Egyptian void is the Muslim Brotherhood.
The only outcome I don't foresee is the emergence of some form of democracy.
Dec '10
Re: Freedom
Precisely. At the moment I see no evidence the protesters are clamoring for the establishment of an Islamic theocracy.
The danger is the Muslim Brotherhood may try to co-opt the chaos. I saw an analyst express concerns the MB may try to deliberately incite violent confrontations with the military in order to provoke bloody incidents that would receive worldwide media attention.
Dec '10
Re: Freedom
Kenneth
Kervinlee: Kenneth, I'm beginning to get the impression that you don't have much confidence in this spectacle coming to any good.
I suspect Iran is orchestrating the uprisings in Egypt and Jordan, just as they orchestrated Hezbollah's takeover in Lebanon.
Have you seen any evidence of this?