Fragile, Vulnerable, Uncertain, Weak: The Economy and the Obama Presidency
Today's GDP numbers are awful, though in a small and dark part of my soul they're reassuring -- for months, I've been saying that the "experts" are wrong and the economy is heading for a double-dip recession, and from today's numbers it's clear that I'm right about the first part, at least. From CNBC:
The U.S. economy grew less than expected in the second quarter as consumer spending barely rose, and growth braked sharply in the prior quarter, a government report showed on Friday.
Growth in gross domestic product—a measure of all goods and services produced within U.S. borders—rose at a 1.3 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said.
First-quarter output was sharply revised down to a 0.4 percent pace from 1.9 percent.
Economists had expected the economy to expand at a 1.8 percent rate in the second
quarter.
In addition, fourth-quarter growth was revised down to a 2.3 percent pace from 3.1 percent, indicating that the economy had already started slowing before the high gasoline prices and supply chain disruptions from Japan hit.
Economists had expected the economy would show signs of perking up by now with Japan supply constraints easing and gasoline prices off their high, but data has disappointed.
This and the sharp downward revisions to the prior quarters suggest a more troubling and fundamental slowdown might be underway.
Economist Donald Marron, over on his blog, points us to a report today from the Kauffman Foundation. They surveyed a dozen or so top economist-bloggers and created a word cloud based on the adjectives the economist-bloggers have used to describe the economy. The full report is here, but the word cloud pretty much says it all.
The Obama administration is talking about three things this morning: the state of the negotiations over the debt ceiling; the faltering economy; and what that all says about his chances of re-election.
I'd say those chances are fragile, vulnerable, uncertain, and weak.
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May '11
Re: Fragile, Vulnerable, Uncertain, Weak: The Economy and the Obama Presidency
"the word cloud pretty much says it all."
I created a few word clouds in my day but I wasn't proud of it. Great post, Rob.
Dec '10
Re: Fragile, Vulnerable, Uncertain, Weak: The Economy and the Obama Presidency
I see a chance to make my fortune. I'll start manufacturing sandwich board signs with "The End Is Near" preprinted on them. I should be able to make a killing.
Apr '11
Re: Fragile, Vulnerable, Uncertain, Weak: The Economy and the Obama Presidency
Looking through some articles on the web this morning covering this miserable data and while perusing the comments sections, I'm smelling a new MoveOn storyline. Many of the "pro-Barrack" posters had the line that the economy was starting to get better last fall and started to go south again AFTER the GOP won control of Congress. Interested to see if this will be focus-tested by the WH and start to roll out with the usual suspect talking heads over the weekend. If it does, you heard it here 1st!!
Jun '11
Re: Fragile, Vulnerable, Uncertain, Weak: The Economy and the Obama Presidency
"Less than expected" has replaced "Surprising" in today's report on the economy vs. previous reports in the last year. Kinda hard even for the compliant media to say "Surprising" bad economic news anymore.
Apr '11
Re: Fragile, Vulnerable, Uncertain, Weak: The Economy and the Obama Presidency
I personally know a 9 and 12 year old with mad crayon skills that would work real cheap on this assembly line.
Jun '10
Re: Fragile, Vulnerable, Uncertain, Weak: The Economy and the Obama Presidency
We're one tiny step away from a double-dip recession. One event (Europe's troubles, some more bad weather, a terrorist attack, and any of a number other things) could easily turn GDP negative.
But there's a huge upside for Obama. Just think of the millions of jobs he could once again save or create as the unemployment rate heads above 10 percent.
Jul '10
Re: Fragile, Vulnerable, Uncertain, Weak: The Economy and the Obama Presidency
It's all of those dang racist consumers! They stop buying things willy nilly just because they are out of work or making half what they did when they bought their underwater houses. Now we know how Atlantis felt.
Where would we be today if Obama were to follow that example?
Mar '11
Re: Fragile, Vulnerable, Uncertain, Weak: The Economy and the Obama Presidency
No "Unexpected"? The sources for your cloud Mr. Long appear to have limited relation to any economists who appear in today's news media.
Apr '11
Re: Fragile, Vulnerable, Uncertain, Weak: The Economy and the Obama Presidency
"Can you please provide some evidence that the growth of the economy was not due to govt spending, and rather monetary policy. Considering that monetary policy has not changed, but govt spending has, this seems like a false claim.
In fact, right around the time that republicans won the house, the economy grinded to a halt."
Here it is again. This comment is from an article recently posted on NRO saying that the GDP numbers don't look good for Obama. It's about the 10th one I've seen today that pins the economic data on the GOP House victory in '10. It can't be coincidental, can it?
Jul '10
Re: Fragile, Vulnerable, Uncertain, Weak: The Economy and the Obama Presidency
There's a question that answers itself if I ever saw one.