Fox Poll - Delaware
Mike Murphy ·
Sep 21, 2010 at 8:47am
1000 voters. Pulse (Rasmussen) for Fox News. Democrat Coons is +15 ahead, and easily over the key 50% mark at 54%. 91% of voters for Democratic candidate say their vote is locked. 60% say O'Donnell not qualified. (In hypothetical Mike Castle beats the same Democrat by 15 points by the way. Just sayin'). The issues get to around 50%, but not the 2-1 you need to break through.
This will take some very powerful magic to pull off.
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Jun '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
But you forgot the step where the miracle happens. :)
May '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
Is 1000 voters common for these polls? It seems small.
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
Most statewide polls sample 500 - 1000 voters. If done right that gives you a good result 95% of the time. This is a robotic poll (which some pollsters don't like) with a computer system doing the interviewing over the phone. We'll see what other polls say. Best is to average several over time. Pollster.com is a good place to see state polls.
Aug '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
If O'Donnell awakes Delaware voters to who Coons is, in reality, there should be enormous revulsion. If there isn't, well, they deserve what they get.
Sometimes losses lead to victories, and vice versa. Obama has been a force for reawakening America that nobody foresaw.
Jun '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
MSNBC Morning Joe was having a lot of fun at Christine O'Donnell's expense showing this video re mice with human brains. Big cringe -- where did she come up with that? The statement was several years ago, about the time of this reseach note:
Margaret A. Keyes, M.D., Ph.D., is a researcher in genetic medicine and Professor of Cell Biology and Genetics at RYT Hospital-Dwayne Medical Center. She is exploring the use of embryonic stem cells as a means to cure neurological conditions such as Alzheimer's Disease and Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease.
By implanting human brain cells (grown from a human embryo's stem cells) into a mouse engineered to have Alzheimer's, Dr. Keyes inadvertently made a remarkable and startling discovery: she not only cured the mouse's Alzheimer's Disease, but the animal soon developed the relative intelligence of a human being.
Several other Google searches also brought up other serious research about that time of human stem cell brain tissue implanted in mice.
She still needs some magic to pull this off, but hey, she's a wiccan
Jun '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
The question to ask, is the lead insurmountable? Alas, in answer, much depends on the candidate, which is doubtless Mike Murphy's point.
Jul '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
Here's the big question: So what?
How did that centrist Republican do in the General Election of 2008?
Has Mr. Murphy ever managed the campaign of a conservative? No.
She's got $2M (at least) for a GOTV plus ad time on Wilmington and Dover stations. There's only one ad for her out and that's by Club for Growth. All that's been out for Coons has been ads by him and the relentless media.
The lead is not insurmountable; it's tough, but not impossible.
Edited on Sep 21, 2010 at 9:38amMay '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
Give it rest please. Or as you put it, just sayin'
Aug '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
Great, then we get what we don't deserve, which is a Democrat controlled senate.
Look, I'm not a big Mike Murphy guy but I think he's right on this issue. From what I've seen O'Donnell is a flake, a lightweight and none too bright. She spouts all the right conservative doctrine you say? Great, still doesn't make her qualified to be a senator.
I will no more support an unqualified tea party candidate than I will an unqualified Democrat or Republican. To try and brush this woman's shortcomings aside in the spirit of tea "party" unity is ridiculous.
I'm afraid the Tea Party shot themselves in the foot on this one...
Sep '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
I have to ask, what is the point of this post? Really, Mr Murphy, you need to go over this again?
It doesn't matter if she loses. Conservatives, by nominating ODonnell, have made a statement that you apparently haven't been able to digest. It shouldn't be that difficult to comprehend, and calling voters who genuinely vote their desires stupid isn't an answer.
Let me ask you, how did Mike Castle not see this coming? Why was Castle, a life long Republican politician in the State of Delaware, unable to convince a plurality of Republicans to vote for him? Just bad constituents? People who just didn't know he was their guy? Mesmerized followers of Palin?
Try to discover what motivated the tea party phenomenon and the conservative disgust with elements of the GOP and deal with it. You seem quite able to accept that Democrats have a propensity for voting in whacky socialists without much push-back.
Many of us see opportunistic, non ideological Republican placeholders as a detriment to our cause, and these are just the consequences the GOP has created by ignoring and dismissing formerly reliable voters, that's all.
Wanna have that debate?
May '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
Jeff Sessions (ACU: 96) isn't conservative? How about Tommy Thompson or Terry Branstad? That's a pretty high bar you've set, Michael.
Aug '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
And, Mr. Murphy, exactly how are you being helpful?
Jun '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
It is often said that these elections come down to enthusiasm. What is often meant by this is the enthusiasm of the "base." In this election, I'm feeling that this necessary civic enthusiasm is not flowing from the base, but rather from the otherwise unmotivated independents. The growth of the Tea Party, it seems to me, evolved from the stirrings of such independents. I do not get the feeling that these folks are by and large the activists, of past political battles, we often assume them to be.
I do not think that these folks will be enthused with the candidacy of a career political wannabe of no other distinction. I am aware of her having held down only one real job, working at ISI, a very important and vital conservative organization that funds and supports young conservatives on and off campus...and she –out of principal!— sued them for $illions.
As Borat would say: Great Success!
Jun '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
Intervention?
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
The defeat of Mike Castle, like the defeat of Lisa Murkowski in Alaska, sent a message that to-get-along, go-along Republicans need to hear. One cannot turn a party of patronage into a party of principle without sacrificing a few patronage pols along the way. This particular struggle is far less about winning any particular seat than about changing public sentiment on the fundamental questions the country faces. The worst possible outcome would be a Republican victory that was not a victory for conservative principles. Tactical victories that usher in strategic defeats -- that is, for the most part, the story of the Republican Party since 1932.
Jun '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
Mike Murphy: New poll here.
(In hypothetical Mike Castle beats the same Democrat by 15 points by the way. Just sayin').
This is like swatting a hornet's nest at the church picnic and running off giggling
May '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
Nuff said
Sep '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
Honestly, I am now quite glad Castle lost. It should send a message. The Republican party needs to be decimated (in the true sense of the word). If each year we are so desperate for some kind of majority, and in exchange, these moderates thwart any real conservative actions (that they supposedly believe in) resulting in Republicans losing more credibilty which then results in losing their nominal majority in the next election cycle....this is a strategy?
On top of that, these Senators go on Meet the press or MSNBC or Good Morning America and commiserate with gleeful Democrat achoroperatives the sorry and extreme state of other Republicans. They pretend they alone are reasonable Republicans and provide delicious propaganda for the Democrat metanarrative. How short sighted can you be?
Castle and the Delaware GOP are not supporting O'Donnell . Murkowski is running as a write in, Specter joined the other side without shame, Scozzaflava, Powell, Hegal endorsed Democrats. I say good riddance. They are better with Democrats who need more moderates in their ranks, let these opportunistic cretins subvert the Democratic party. After putting forth these types,the GOP expects loyalty from conservatives? Ha!
May '10
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
Once again Mr. Murphy, you have shown yourself to be smarter than us peasants. Maybe you can manage Castle's write-in campaign.
Re: Fox Poll - Delaware
I don't know Pilgrim--I personally appreciate Mike's commentary. Isn't it good to know the reality of what the Republicans face in Delaware? If nothing else, it will prepare them for the coming fight.
Pilgrim
Mike Murphy: New poll here.
(In hypothetical Mike Castle beats the same Democrat by 15 points by the way. Just sayin').
This is like swatting a hornet's nest at the church picnic and running off giggling · Sep 21 at 10:19am