There are four little words that always put a lump in my throat. If you are much like me, these are four little words you never want to hear.

"We need to talk".

Nothing good ever comes after that. No, sir.

"It's not you it's me", "We are downsizing", "Daddy is moving out, for a little while,  but it's not your fault". "There has been an accident". "The results are in, let's discuss them in my office".

These are the sorts of thing people say, once they let the cat out the bag, once the separation is defined. But first they say, "We need to talk".

"We need to talk", and the adrenaline surges, that taste on the back of your tongue, that flutter in your stomach, the half-formed question in the back of your mind, like a wreck on the highway-both in slow motion and in an instant- in a word, dread.

 All that remains is the question, how bad is this going to be?

There is bad news and there is bad news. There is mere disappointment, and then there is irreversible loss and tragedy. Some news irks and irritates, other news devastates, leaves us undone. 

I distinguish disappointment from devastation to remind myself and us all that there is so much more to life than politics, so much more to living than being a conservative in America.

I only point this out now because everyone's blood has been up lately. The invective has been directed as much within as without.  

I am a center-right squish. In a time when Alan West and Ann Coulter are not hard core enough, I know I'm anathema. Fine, so be it.

I'll get to my point. I have been a fanatic. Specifically I have be a Neo-Pentecostal, or Charismatic Christian. A hard core zealot, in Luther's parlance, a schwarmer, an embarrassment to good Charismatics everywhere.

I have seen what becomes of religious movements that value ardor over reason, intensity over intellect, passion over principle, idealism over reality. I have paid lip-service to outreach when intensifying the allegiance of the faithful was really the task at hand.

People get older, ardor cools, and reality refuses to bend to the vision proclaimed. Leaders prove frail, or selfish, or avaricious. Over time communication, sex and money boil up the dross in us all. And disappointment takes time to come back from.

So, as much as any one else here, I take the life that I have lived, the education I have received, the wisdom I have gained, and I use it to evaluate what I see happening around me. This is my lens, and I freely admit that I am biased against enthusiasts, be they religious or political.

 Once bitten twice shy. My spidey senses tingle when Schwarmers are about.

Now I will really get to my point.

I am not at all convinced that the Tea Parties and the GOP can hold together to take the Senate and the Presidency. I really hope we can.

 Dr. Rahe has convinced me of the urgency of not nominating another managerial progressive and of going beyond that, to dismantling the entitlement state. We won't be dismantling anything with only the House, and it divided.

I see, both in the events and the in the tone of the debt ceiling debate, a rift between the Tea Parties and the GOP. That there are factions is undeniable.

Each side voiced hostility and derision toward the other as much as they did toward the President or Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi.

I believe these factions came perilously close to looking at each other and saying "We need to talk".

So I am asking Ricochet:

Can this coalition of the Tea Parties, the GOP and assorted libertarians, independents and RINO squishes hold?

Can it hold, or is a schism imminent?

Will cooler heads prevail, or do we need to talk?

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Joined
Jun '11
michael kelley

Squishy Blue RINO

So I am asking Ricochet:

Can this coalition of the Tea Parties, the GOP and assorted libertarians, independents and RINO squishes hold?

Can it hold, or is a schism imminent?

Will cooler heads prevail, or do we need to talk? ·

Don't believe the hype.

The Progressives would have us believe the terrorist thing, the extreme right wing fringe thing and all of the other pejorative labels they use to describe the current dynamics of the Republican party.

Don't get misled.  A rigorous debate within ranks is healthy and is always what is needed.

If I were a Progressive, I would be alarmed that, within their fold, there seems to be only consensus with no division.  Now that is a dangerous condition.

Squishy Blue RINO
Joined
Aug '10
Squishy Blue RINO

michael kelley

Will cooler heads prevail, or do we need to talk? ·

Don't believe the hype.

The Progressives would have us believe the terrorist thing, the extreme right wing fringe thing and all of the other pejorative labels they use to describe the current dynamics of the Republican party.

Don't get misled.  A rigorous debate within ranks is healthy and is always what is needed.

If I were a Progressive, I would be alarmed that, within their fold, there seems to be only consensus with no division.  Now that is a dangerous condition. · Aug 2 at 2:15pm

I agree with both nearly all of what you said, especially you last point, adding only that it is true of us all.

If I am being hyped it is by NRO and Ricochet, that is where I spend nearly all my time.

I read a little Slate and Atlantic to get the lib-dem perspective, but my assessment of the degree of internal hostility comes from reading right leaning sources and listening to right leaning podcasts.

Sisyphus
Joined
Jul '10
Sisyphus

As Tea Party, it was my hope following the 2010 elections that a Tea Party member would be provided a leadership position, a voice at the table, to facilitate a creative engagement. The GOP saw the Tea Party as amateurish goo goo interlopers and the Tea Party view of the GOP leadership as business as usual Washington elites was no more charitable.

There is a schism, but there are always schisms. There are factions among the Democrats. Pat Caddell (D) holds forth brilliantly at David Horowitz events, and speaks sincerely on the Obama, Reid, Pelosi threat. There is an abortion schism, an Obamacare schism (yes, inside the GOP caucus), a gun rights schism, and so on.

Dismantling the toxic federal sprawl will cause set backs and loss of power for very strong willed, self-important politicians. Even Biden has an ego. No idea what the basis for that would be, but he has one. These people have allies, and few scruples in the means by which they exercise their influence. The joy of having James O'Keefe on the loose is the regular view beneath the overturned rocks.

There will be some eggs broken regardless of whether America wins.

tabula rasa
Joined
Jun '10
tabula rasa

There will be a few "dangerous times" ahead for the relationship between tea party and GOP.  This debt commission (or whatever it's called) could be one--if it does nothing substantive, we'll see problems.  

Nonetheless, I think the coalition will hold.  To some degree, my opinion is based on an assumption that both GOP and tea party will act reasonably, because a split, especially if it results in a third party candidate, means Obama wins.

My hope is that through 2012 the GOP and tea party will operate together on the basis of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."

Diane Ellis, Ed.

Wow, great post.

Today, I spoke with a Tea Party member of my family who expressed anger over the Establishment Republicans and that he's seriously considering voting for third party candidates, as are many other Tea Partiers he's heard from.  I told him that I thought that was the absolute stupidest thing he could do, but his reply was sobering.  "I've seen what the Establishment Republicans do when they're in power," he said.  "They spend like there's no tomorrow.  I've had enough of that."  How can I argue with that?  I can hope that this time it will be better if and when the GOP recaptures the Senate and WH.  But what if it's not? Where does that leave us?

grotiushug
Joined
Jul '11
grotiushug

Excellent post.  Right now I think the most worrying development on the right is that the Tea Party has over the last month served notice that it might very well be willing to stand on principle even if that means going down in a blaze of glory.  If that happens and the republicans fail to oust Obama I think we're pretty much done because then the collapse of the main entitlements is all but guaranteed, the only question being how long it takes.  That will be an ugly time and I've no doubt I'll thank God that I'll be living in Montana and not New York City when it happens.

Perhaps more than it realizes, the Tea Party holds the future in its hands.  

Stuart Creque
Joined
Dec '10
Stuart Creque

 It boils down to where you want to go.

If the Pelosi-Reid-Obama vision of America's future is where you want to go, then let your distaste for zealots dictate your course.

If you want America to do something real toward eliminating the deficit and cutting the debt, toward liberating entrepreneurs from crushing regulation, toward keeping tax rates low enough to give the economy oxygen to grow, then realize that these are the things that the zealots want: not a totalitarian state, not uniformity of thought or behavior, but a government that lives within its citizens' means and does only what lies within its proper role.

Squishy Blue RINO
Joined
Aug '10
Squishy Blue RINO

Stuart Creque:  It boils down to where you want to go.

If the Pelosi-Reid-Obama vision of America's future is where you want to go, then let your distaste for zealots dictate your course.

If you want America to do something real toward eliminating the deficit and cutting the debt, toward liberating entrepreneurs from crushing regulation, toward keeping tax rates low enough to give the economy oxygen to grow, then realize that these are the things that the zealots want: not a totalitarian state, not uniformity of thought or behavior, but a government that lives within its citizens' means and does only what lies within its proper role. · Aug 2 at 6:31pm

I realize my distaste for zealotry is a personal bias, but it is one I came by honestly. I didn't abandon my ship of fools, I went went down like Ahab and mercifully, was spat up like Jonah.

I am resolved to stand firm with any one who holds for an end to managerial progressivism and the entitlement state. This is true of both Tea Party stalwarts and evangelical/social conservatives.

My question to all is, can the center of the right can hold?

Squishy Blue RINO
Joined
Aug '10
Squishy Blue RINO

tabula rasa: There will be a few "dangerous times" ahead for the relationship between tea party and GOP.  This debt commission (or whatever it's called) could be one--if it does nothing substantive, we'll see problems.  

Nonetheless, I think the coalition will hold.  To some degree, my opinion is based on an assumption that both GOP and tea party will act reasonably, because a split, especially if it results in a third party candidate, means Obama wins.

My hope is that through 2012 the GOP and tea party will operate together on the basis of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." · Aug 2 at 3:39pm

Wars are won with wary alliances, I hope this election will be too.

A wary alliance is better than no alliance at all.

Squishy Blue RINO
Joined
Aug '10
Squishy Blue RINO

Diane Ellis, Ed.: Wow, great post.

Today, I spoke with a Tea Party member of my family who expressed anger over the Establishment Republicans and that he's seriously considering voting for third party candidates, as are many other Tea Partiers he's heard from.  I told him that I thought that was the absolute stupidest thing he could do, but his reply was sobering.  "I've seen what the Establishment Republicans do when they're in power," he said.  "They spend like there's no tomorrow.  I've had enough of that.",,, I can hope that this time it will be better if and when the GOP recaptures the Senate and WH.  But what if it's not? Where does that leave us? · Aug 2 at 3:58pm

The most vexing realization of all is, you are both right. A third party run hands Obama the keys for four more years, but your family member is certainly right too.

I credit the Tea Parties with putting the fear of God in the Old Guard in this latest fight.

But I do not believe this dynamic is viable much longer. It was a close run thing.

Edited on Aug 2, 2011 at 7:33pm
katievs
Joined
May '10
katievs

SBR, I'm glad to know ya and count you among my cyber friends.

Squishy Blue RINO
Joined
Aug '10
Squishy Blue RINO
katievs: SBR, I'm glad to know ya and count you among my cyber friends. · Aug 2 at 8:56pm

Thank you, I appreciate that very much!

Sisyphus
Joined
Jul '10
Sisyphus

Diane Ellis, Ed.: Wow, great post.

Today, I spoke with a Tea Party member of my family who expressed anger over the Establishment Republicans and that he's seriously considering voting for third party candidates, as are many other Tea Partiers he's heard from.  I told him that I thought that was the absolute stupidest thing he could do, but his reply was sobering.  "I've seen what the Establishment Republicans do when they're in power," he said.  "They spend like there's no tomorrow.  I've had enough of that."  How can I argue with that?  I can hope that this time it will be better if and when the GOP recaptures the Senate and WH.  But what if it's not? Where does that leave us?

If the Tea Party has the momentum and the numbers to lead in both houses, being in the GOP is better than being out. The realists will read the writing on the wall and discover that they have always been limited government types. They already have enough numbers to realistically threaten a third party play, but I don't think it would be pretty. Too many chiefs, not enough indians.

Sisyphus
Joined
Jul '10
Sisyphus

Note that, even as a third party, the GOP and the Tea Party could form a majority coalition to keep the Democrats out of power. There are some interesting questions that arise about bipartisan commissions and the like, but those arrangements can be rejiggered to suit.

Claire Berlinski, Ed.

Beautifully written post. 

Cobalt Blue
Joined
Jul '11
Cobalt Blue

First, as others have said, excellent post on a topic that has concerned me as well. I think your pessimism, if that's even the right word, about 2012 is a reaction to the heated rhetoric of the past few weeks. But there is a huge amount of common ground between the Tea party and establishment GOP factions. If Obama wins, it will be because those on the right don't convince enough independents (and with the MSM cheerleading for Obama, that might be difficult), not because of any internal spats.

If Obama loses, though, the likelihood of a very ugly schism is much greater. If the GOP has its hands on the levers of power, the question of how to use them - reform or business as usual? - takes on immediate relevance. And I am pessimistic about that. If they don't attempt substantial reform and curb spending, a 3rd part in 2016 is all but assured.

Nevertheless, first things first. Let's nurture this uneasy alliance now, keep on pressing the small government vision, primary establishment GOP politicians where practicable, and be graceful in victory and defeat.

Edited on Aug 3, 2011 at 6:30am
John Marzan
Joined
Oct '10
John Marzan

the tea party can't hurt the democrats anymore. they can only hurt the republicans (and help dems eke a narrow victory).

Yeah...ok.
Joined
Jan '11
Yeah...ok.

Cooler heads will prevail and the Tea Party / GOP coalition will dissolve.

Who reading this believes we must increase spending every year? We call this 'deal' a success because it may have changed the perspective in Washington and msm. I want no part of a GOP that is too worried about who gets blamed that they abandoned the Occam's razor approach - decrease spending. If you can't do that then they ALL deserve shame and blame. It is the self perpetuating Washington bubble that feared calamity if the deal didn't get done because a bunch of those parasites should be the first ones unemployed. Downsizing government was the pain, not a downgraded credit rating. Roger Kimball wrote: "The Potemkin Village aspect of the long-running skit in Washington has been revealed for the make-believe fantasy it is. The all wear suits, ride around in motorcades, and pretend they know what their doing." 

Edited on Aug 3, 2011 at 7:53am

Joined
Feb '11
Ed G.

"I have seen what becomes of religious movements that value ardor over reason, intensity over intellect, passion over principle, idealism over reality."

Gee, I wonder who you're referring to in that sentence. Somehow I doubt you think it's your side that's ardent rather than rational, intense rather than intellectual, passionate rather than principled, and idealistic rather than realistic.

Look, it has gotten intense around here recently, but that's only because one side sees a decent victory and the other side sees failure and we're trying to understand and persuade one another. That's healthy. Endless and unwinnable arguments about pragmatism and facing reality don't help - let's keep talking specifics as we've been doing. And let's keep the veiled and implied insults to a minimum if you're at all interested in keeping a coalition intact.


Joined
Feb '11
Ed G.

Squishy Blue RINO:

Dr. Rahe has convinced me of the urgency of not nominating another managerial progressive and of going beyond that, to dismantling the entitlement state.

Did you really need to be convinced of this? What attracts you to the right in the first place?

Edited on Aug 3, 2011 at 9:04am

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