For Anyone Who's Still Awake...
Peter Robinson ·
June 28, 2012 at 7:25am
The most acute student of the Supreme Court that I know predicts a 6-3 vote to uphold ObamaCare in its entirety. Against which depressing prediction I find myself counterposing the latest on Intrade, which at this hour predicts a "71.9 percent chance" that the Court will strike down the individual mandate.
Whatever the Court announces at 10AM tomorrow morning, ObamaCare delenda est.
And so to bed.
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May '10
Re: For Anyone Who's Still Awake...
.......and good morning!!! 2 1/2 hrs and counting. Fingers crossed.
May '11
Re: For Anyone Who's Still Awake...
At the end of the day, you are correct, Peter! Cato the Elder couldn't say it better! 6-3, and the mandate collapses!
Jun '10
Re: For Anyone Who's Still Awake...
Peter Robinson
Al Kennedy
Well said, dash. · 3 hours ago
Well said indeed. · 2 hours ago
This is not as improbable as it seems. We know almost nothing about the internal dynamics of the court. I suspect that collegiality and the need by younger members to be accepted and taken seriously has played a part in decision making. Peer approval might prove more important than ideological purity.
Dec '11
Re: For Anyone Who's Still Awake...
I guess I really don't understand the severability clause, or lack there of, and the idea that the SC can strike down the mandate without declaring the entire law invalid. Wasn't that the point of the Pelosi gang deliberately excluding it?
Jul '10
Re: For Anyone Who's Still Awake...
Even in a loss, there might be a silver lining. The end of any notion in the hinterlands that the institutions of Washington are wise, beneficent, and in some way checked. Only the voters will save the republic.
Jul '10
Re: For Anyone Who's Still Awake...
Or, Dem partisans on the Court may let Obamacare go down to erase what has been a horrible and continuous flogging of the perps and historic Republican ascendancy for three years.
Jun '11
Re: For Anyone Who's Still Awake...
At 9:58 AM Intrade says: 69.9% chance that the mandate goes down. Let's see if the crowd is correct.
Jun '11
Re: For Anyone Who's Still Awake...
Settled at 50 after the decision was read. That's a push, btw.
Mar '11
Re: For Anyone Who's Still Awake...
No, we won't. Any notion of America as a truly free country is done. We now see that even when the Constitution explicitly says something, all it takes is a judge to declare that "up" really means "sideways", and that's that... it's now precedent. There is no freedom without economic freedom and freedom of property. The United States Supreme Court wiped that away completely this morning. There is no practical limit to what the government can make you do now. We could pass a Constitutional amendment tomorrow explicitly forbidding this outrage , and future judges would simply rule "that's not what it really means", and void it. That's it. What the Founding Fathers created is dead. Only an animated corpse resembling it remains. The whole point of the Constitution was limited government. And THAT is what died today.
Aug '10
Re: For Anyone Who's Still Awake...
Does this hurt InTrade's credibility?
Jun '11
Re: For Anyone Who's Still Awake...
The issue traded wasn't whether ACA would be upheld, technically the market was:
"The US Supreme Court to rule individual mandate unconstitutional before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012"
(Since there will be no activity by the SCOTUS between now and 12/31/2012 the issue is effectively closed-- but won't pay off until January 1, 2013).
When the decision was announced YES was approximately 69.9% Since the decision actually changed the "mandate" to a "tax" I'm at a loss to assess InTrade's credibility. Five said a "mandate" was unconstitutional but one of them, the CJ said it was actually a tax not a mandate. It seems to me that the YES trade was the right one but there's a big fight going on amongst traders right now.