Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
I'm not speaking now of dopey, naive optimism. I'm growingly resigned to the idea that humanity will make the same idiotic mistakes over and over and there's little I can do to prevent it. But here are a few thoughts that give me comfort about the long run.
1) Claudia Rossett is the journalist of whom I was speaking. As her husband (who is magnificent) reminded me yesterday, two plus two equals four. And you know, he's right. It really does, every single time. In the long run--albeit sometimes in the very long run--the people who add two and two and come up with nine will try to invade Russia as winter approaches.
2) Given this, there's something positively heartwarming about the world's renewed anti-Semitic enthusiasms. Anyone who believes fourteen million Jews are capable of secretly running a planet of seven billion-odd people will end up believing it's a good idea to invade Russia as winter approaches.
3) Demography matters. I'd hardly be the one to say it doesn't. But so do cultural and institutional safeguards against corruption and rent-seeking, education, and the participation of women in the labor force. I don't care how many men you've got under arms, if you can't make your economy work, you won't be able to feed them. A ruthless female entrepreneur is probably worth three kids, as national survival goes.
4) If you understand this, you can predict a lot. We should actually be cheered by the world's inability to understand it. Those who don't end up invading Russia as winter approaches.
5) I can't think of a fifth, but that doesn't mean there isn't one.
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May '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
5) I can't think of a fifth
I can.
God is on His throne in heaven. And he laughs at the devil.
May '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
Here's another. Today is the feast of St. Francis of Assisi. He was the son of an Italian cloth merchant who rebuilt the collapsing Church in the 12th century and changed the world.
It's amazing what one person can do.
Edited on Oct 4, 2011 at 7:00amDec '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
Gd will supply infinite many blessings. We must do our best. Have a good and sweet year Claire.
Sep '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
5) I can't think of a fifth, but that doesn't mean there isn't one.
Christopher Dawson, Claire.
Sep '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
Winter approaches. If only those folks would go ahead and invade Russia already and leave the rest of us free to enjoy the fall.
Edited on Oct 4, 2011 at 7:51amDec '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
A lot of people wonder exactly how the Jews rule the world, is there some kind of secret handshake or decoder ring?
The invading Russia just before winter problem is totally about packing the right stuff. They just didn't take enough hot chocolate and marshmallows. On those frosty mornings, what's more fun or makes for a better day than a big mug of hot chocolate, problem solved.
Aug '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
I really enjoyed Roger Scruton's book The Uses of Pessimism (http://www.amazon.com/Uses-Pessimism-Danger-False-Hope/dp/0199747539/), where he is making the case for a scrupulous optimism.
For me it was as enlightening as Sowell's The Vision of the Annointed (http://www.amazon.com/Vision-Anointed-Self-Congratulation-Social-Policy/dp/046508995X/) giving an underlying reason why so many disparate bad ideas are often found held by people at the same time.
There is a video of him talking about the book online: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ytp1O_GF4lo
Edited on Oct 4, 2011 at 8:10amJan '11
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
As for the mysterious fifth, is someone planning to invade Russia this winter that you're not telling us about?
Sep '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
A lot of people wonder exactly how the Jews rule the world, is there some kind of secret handshake or decoder ring?
I agree with Andrew Klavan that its a metaphysical impossibility for the world to be this much in debt if it were true.
Jun '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
Pseudodionysius: 5) I can't think of a fifth, but that doesn't mean there isn't one.
Christopher Dawson, Claire. · Oct 4 at 7:47am
Amen, and I'm not even a Catholic. Christopher Dawson should be read by everyone. He really understood what's happened, happening, and about to happen.
Jun '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
jetstream: A lot of people wonder exactly how the Jews rule the world, is there some kind of secret handshake or decoder ring?
The invading Russia just before winter problem is totally about packing the right stuff. They just didn't take enough hot chocolate and marshmallows. On those frosty mornings, what's more fun or makes for a better day than a big mug of hot chocolate, problem solved. · Oct 4 at 7:57am
You also may want a better grade of grease for the tanks. The kind that doesn't freeze up on one of those chilly mornings on the steppes.
Jun '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
tabula rasa
jetstream: A lot of people wonder exactly how the Jews rule the world, is there some kind of secret handshake or decoder ring?
The invading Russia just before winter problem is totally about packing the right stuff. They just didn't take enough hot chocolate and marshmallows. On those frosty mornings, what's more fun or makes for a better day than a big mug of hot chocolate, problem solved. · Oct 4 at 7:57am
You also may want a better grade of grease for the tanks. The kind that doesn't freeze up on one of those chilly mornings on the steppes. · Oct 4 at 8:09am
Um, no. What you need are Mongolian ponies. Unfortunately, Mongolian riders are in short supply today.
Mar '11
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
@tabularasa and @Pseudodionysius—I've tried a couple of times to get into Dawson and so far not found the point of entry. Which of his books would you recommend beginning with to get to the "aha!" moment as quickly as possible? (Sorry to sound so impatient; I've reached the point where one realizes there isn't time to read everything I'd like to, so if I don't see a payoff coming fairly early I tend to move on to the next author on the list.)
Dec '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
As a minority in this country I have a hard time not being optimistic.
146 years ago I would have been a slave.
141 years ago I would not have been allowed to vote.
93 years ago neither my mother nor my sister would have been allowed to vote.
64 years ago if I were lynched no one would have been convicted for it.
57 years ago I would have never been allowed to attend my middle or high school, or the College I received my Masters degree from.
13 years ago my relative being beaten to death for their sexual orientation would not have provoked any sort of outrage.
I have it better than my father had it. My father had it better than his father. There is no other period of time in this countries history that has been more favorable of minorities.
If you aren't a minority here are 7 other pieces of good news to keep your optimize up.
Jun '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
The wounds are still raw. I spent a part of Sunday being bombarded by this sort of crap. I have long taken the position that I will not allow comments of this nature pass, as it only encourages more of them.
I find the battle more and more tiring, but Sunday was worse than most days because the adult's son proved to hold the same opinions as the father. I'm in a quandary even today, as I'm doing the kid's mother a favour by reading the punk's illiterate English assignments and essays before he hands them in. In effect, I'm helping manufacture a more articulate bigot, and did I say I'm tired. Another generation of ignorance and I feel as if I can do nothing to have an effect, but to stop would only be to lose hope.
Sep '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
Bradley Birzer's guide is a good entry point. BTW, I'm not saying that Christopher Dawson is infallible or hasn't had some of his stuff upended since by archaeological discoveries and advances by historians of late antiquity. But the range and breadth of his coverage is extraordinary and he took religion seriously rather than trying to expunge it from history. But I empathize with your conundrum, Dawson himself was a terrible teacher (to the extent a fellow without a conventional tenured post taught) from what I can remember because he assumed you were as well read as he was.
Like a lot of groundbreaking thinkers, a good scholar who weaves together his opus in invaluable for navigating his thought without spending 10 years of your life doing it alone.
Jun '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
Nyadmar17, despite all you have written the world is becoming less violent in that fewer persons are dying violently with every passing year. Now I know this is not much consolation to the Israelis, but even the incidence of war is decreasing on a year over year basis. Admittedly, this is both a blessing and a curse, as the fewer the wars the less willing and able democracies are to defend freedom.
Aug '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
Claire Berlinski, Ed.:
4) If you understand this, you can predict a lot. We should actually be cheered by the world's inability to understand it. Those who don't end up invading Russia as winter approaches.
This one actually depressed me, as it is clear that this is not understood in the US.
Given the standard reaction to every problem is to demand more government intervention, such as Sarbanes-Oxley, Dodd-Frank, and whatever the flower children sitting in on Wall Street want, we are doomed even if we are unlikely to be camped outside Stalingrad right after Black Friday.
I wonder if the starry-eyed idealists staging the sit-down on lower Manhattan realize that their signs should actually read "Make Corruption More Attractive and Better Paying!"
Apr '11
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
Cas, Nyadnar17 said he (she?) has a hard time not being optimistic; that is, he (she?) is indeed optimistic.
Jun '10
Re: Five Rational Reasons for Optimism
Charlotte
Cas, Nyadnar17 said he (she?) has a hard time not being optimistic; that is, he (she?) is indeed optimistic. · Oct 4 at 10:36am
I'm not arguing. I'm just sayin'.