Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
In PPP's final South Carolina poll, Newt's at 37 percent, Romney's at 28, Santorum's at 16, and Ron Paul's at 14.
Correct. Trailing just days ago, Newt now leads by nine.
Gingrich is leading with pretty much every key segment of the Republican electorate. He's up 41-21 on Romney and Santorum with Evangelicals, he has a 52-18 advantage on Romney with Tea Partiers, he leads Santorum 44-21 with 'very conservative' voters with Romney at 20%, and he's up 39-26 with men.
Does this mean Newt will win? Who knows?
Usually when we poll in the closing days before an election and find someone ahead by 9 points we'll say with a pretty high degree of confidence that person's going to win. I'm not comfortable saying that about South Carolina....Gingrich will probably win tomorrow- but there's a higher than normal chance for a surprise given everything that's gone down in the last 48 hours.
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Dec '10
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
Down in the weeds of the poll there are some interesting data like that Newt isn't doing as bad with women as some claim and that he leads both the Tea Party and evangelical vote in SC. The state could be an outlier, but if it is any way representative then Newt is less unelectable than some claim (or screech at high decibel levels.)
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
I'm with Ross Douthat: "I am at a loss to identify the “big ideas” and “big solutions” that he is supposedly campaigning on. Yes, he has an implausible supply-side tax plan, but you never hear him talk about it. He has technically signed on to some form of entitlement reform, but you never hear him talk about that, either. Instead, so far as I can tell, his “idea-oriented” campaign consists almost entirely of promising to hold Lincoln-Douglas-style debates with President Obama, grandstanding about media bias and moderator stupidity, defending his history of ideological flexibility much more smoothly than Mitt Romney, and then occasionally throwing out a wonky-sounding notion (like, say, outsourcing E-Verify to American Express) that’s more glib than genuinely significant. His last-minute momentum in South Carolina, which last night’s debate did nothing to derail, has been generated almost exclusively by the politics of ressentiment: If he wins the Palmetto State primary, it will be because conservative voters don’t much like the mainstream press, and Gingrich has mastered the art of taking tough questions and turning them into dudgeon-rich denunciations of the liberal media and all its works."
Dec '10
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
It's gonna be fun at the Ham House in the morning.
Dec '10
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
If he wins tomorrow, it will be because a majority of voters in South Carolina's primary can't stomach voting for Romney when they have what they view as a viable alternative. But that won't be a surprise, because in Iowa and in New Hampshire, more people voted for not-Romney-not-Paul than voted for Romney.
Dec '10
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
Conor, it's still better than an incomprehensible 59 point plan (and attendant power point presentation) and a dead fish handshake. No, I don't actually know the strength of Romney's grip, but his whole persona screams dead fish handshake. With either Romney or Gingrich we have to rely on Congress to keep them focused, so it's all down to presentation at this point.
Dec '10
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
Peter Robinson
Why is Newt leading Santorum with Evangelicals? Santorum got the consensus Evangelical endorsement out of the conference in Texas, and both Santorum and Newt are Catholics, so there's no sectarian difference. And Santorum would seem to have a better story to tell about family values.
I guess Evangelicals in South Carolina see Newt as more electable than Santorum?
Dec '10
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
Stuart Creque
Why is Newt leading Santorum with Evangelicals? ...
I guess Evangelicals in South Carolina see Newt as more electable than Santorum? · 1 minute ago
You answered your own question. The demographics of the poll (yes, I know it's PPP) indicate than Newt has more support than just the pudgy, angry, middle-aged white guys.
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
Can't it all be down to not being an undisciplined megalomaniac with a penchant for insisting on "fundamentally reforming" everything with ill-conceived, overly complicated plans that in some cases require creating new bureaucracies? Because that plus ethics scandals is Newt Gingrich.
Dec '10
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
Conor Friedersdorf
Can't it all be down to not being an undisciplined megalomaniac with a penchant for insisting on "fundamentally reforming" everything with ill-conceived, overly complicated plans that in some cases require creating new bureaucracies? Because that plus ethics scandals is Newt Gingrich. · 0 minutes ago
The other option is a very sorry politician (I speak of his lack of electoral success) who is either ashamed of his greatest accomplishments or unprepared/incapable of explaining them. If it's a choice between turning off the base or turning off the left I'm going with door number 2.
Dec '11
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
The King Prawn
Conor, it's still better than an incomprehensible 59 point plan (and attendant power point presentation) and a dead fish handshake. No, I don't actually know the strength of Romney's grip, but his whole persona screams dead fish handshake.
I've actually shaken Romney's hand, right after the 2008 presidential election. He had a pretty decent grip, but while he shook my hand he was looking over my shoulder to see if there might be someone more important he could woo.
Jul '11
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
Newt is viewed as explaining what's wrong better and more importantly insulting the media and Obama along the way. Lots of people hate government, but plenty also hate the media and everybody knows people who just despise Obama. We were let down by the lack of vetting from the McCain campaign and the media. Who here truly isn't at least getting some schadenfreude? I'm pretty sure we lose this without really smearing Obama so who is more likely to slam him? Who here thinks Romney will blast Obama amidships? I know Newt will but I'm perfectly ready for Newt to mess up and make me hope against hope that Romney has some inner Chuck Norris.
Dec '11
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
Conor Friedersdorf
I'm with Ross Douthat:
Ah, Ross Douthat. What an excellent choice the New York Times made for their "conservative" pundit. Young, hungry, suitably scruffy, and, above all, pliable. Not a very skilled writer, but useful. When his editors take him out walkies, he squats and produces.
Good boy, Ross! Good boy!
Feb '11
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
Conor Friedersdorf
Can't it all be down to not being an undisciplined megalomaniac with a penchant for insisting on "fundamentally reforming" everything with ill-conceived, overly complicated plans that in some cases require creating new bureaucracies? Because that plus ethics scandals is Newt Gingrich.
Ethics scandals?
Is that Alinsky-style attacks that the GOP never bothers to acknowledge, let alone refute?
Or that Gingrich took money freely offered by well-regarded corporations that later blew up?
As to the rest how is that very different from Romney with his 59 point plan for whatevs plus Romneycare and all the associated bureaucracies thereof?
Gingrich looks pretty good compared to that, especially since he'll fight back, and all Romney can do is curl up into a little ball and hope the left will stop kicking him while he's down.
Sep '10
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
GREENVILLE, SC At the Ricochet Diner in Greenville, I sat near two typical South Carolina working-class voters, I couldn't help but overhear their conversation as they ate their biscuits and gravy. The two could not understand why their fellow Palmetto Staters would go for Newt Gingrich. While one named Russ, I think, did most of the talking, the other continually nodded in agreement.
"As far as I can tell, Conner, Newt doesn't have no plan but for haven' debates Lincoln style. He jus' likes to bash the liberal media, I'm voting fer Mitt."
Just a little tidbit here on the ground in Greenville
- Franco reporting
Sep '10
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
The left-wing media is the donkey in the room, kicking and hee-hawing around, distracting everyone and stubbornly refusing to move away from it's master, Obama. If the Republican nominee can't deal with this unruly animal, he will lose.
Why a writer for the New York Times can't see this is perfectly understandable. I'm sure Ross knows better what people in Manhattan think, and when that primary comes around I'll pay more attention to his thoughts.
Oct '10
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
It's all about the Annoyance Factor:
Annoy Buffett — Vote Romney
Annoy the Fed — Vote Paul
Annoy secularists — Vote Santorum
Annoy the media — Vote Newt
No one really cares what billionaires think about politics.
No one really gets money supply or fiat currency.
In South Carolina no one bothers to annoy secularists … can hardly find one.
Lots of people (now) know the media is despicable, so Newt has jumped ahead.
Oct '10
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
This comes down to where we are in the culture war. Do we need a Patton, storming across North Africa, Sicily, Germany, north to relieve the Bulge? Or an Ike to keep the allies aligned with tact and centrism? One argument is it’s still early in the war and we need a warfighter like Patton. Some soldiers will get slapped along the way and he’ll alienate friends as much as kill enemies at times. But the battles will start racking up. Loses inflicted will confound the enemy’s efforts to resupply. What’s the point of keeping the allies appeased if you aren’t taking and holding ground?
Newt would like the analogy. Romney would clink some glasses and go back to counting landing craft for the invasion that’s years away. On some level we need them both. We only get to pick one. If up to me? Take and hold ground; attrite the combat forces in front of you. The rest will sort itself out.
A certain bloody-mindedness is what attracts South Carolinians to Newt. Ike’s role could have been performed by others; the flawed but gifted Patton’s I’m not so sure.
Mar '11
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
Handling the media is a skill required to be a successful candidate--but Newt doesn't so much handle them as man-handle them.
Reagan had any number of tools he employed to diffuse a question he didn't like or put a reporter in his place--yes. sometimes it required him to get angry, but often he could do it with affability, good humor, and firm (but not overly aggressive) self-confidence.
Newt seems to have only two modes: The "That's the stupidest question I've ever heard" response and the "You pinko-commies in the media are all against us" response.
Those play well in front of conservative primary audiences that loudly applaud the remarks and the reporter into submission.
But I wonder how well it will play in front of a mixed audience in the general, and with only 1 other candidate on the stage who will back (and be backed by) virtually every moderator.
Mar '11
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
All of that said, Mitt Romney seems utterly incapable of landing a punch. Sometimes he seems to struggle to even form a fist.
Jun '10
Re: Final Poll in South Carolina: Newt's Up--Way Up
And here I was thinking that conservatives wanted to repeal big ideas and big solutions. Silly me.